Maryland Sports Betting Revenue Projections
As sports fans get ready for Maryland sports betting to launch, let’s look at what to expect in terms of Maryland sports betting revenue.
We’ll discuss the advantages and possible challenges ahead for the MD sports gambling market. We’ll also compare the state’s revenue projections to actual results from recent market launches elsewhere.
Read on for an in-depth look at how the business of sports betting is shaping up in the Old Line State.
MD Market Overview
To grasp the potential of the Maryland sports gambling market here is some key context to keep in mind.
State Population (2020 Census): 6,177,224
In-state Pro Teams: Baltimore Orioles (MLB), Baltimore Ravens (NFL), Washington Football Team (NFL)
Expected Launch Date: Fall 2021
Biggest Monthly Revenue: TBD
Regulator: Maryland Lottery and Gaming Commission
Platforms: Online and retail (launch pending)
Tax Rate: 15 percent (jumps to 17.5 percent on annual mobile wagering revenue above $5 million per operator)
Maryland Sports Betting Revenue: Month-by-Month Data
Sports Betting Dime will be following Maryland’s monthly sports betting financial reports closely when the industry opens up this fall to provide up-to-date analysis. For now, here’s our rough estimate of what to expect based on what we’ve seen in neighboring Virginia, which launched in January 2021.
|Month/Year||Estimated Betting Handle||Estimated Revenue||Hold Percentage||Approximate State Tax Revenue|
|October 2021 (TBD)||$200,000,000||$14,400,000||7.20%||$2,160,000|
It’s entirely possible Maryland will exceed our estimated betting handle in its first month, especially if it does indeed launch in late September or October. That’s always a busy time for sports betting with the start of the NFL season and the return of college football. Note that for estimation purposes, we’ve used the national average hold rate of approximately 7.2 percent.
The above table will be updated monthly with actual figures reported by the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Commission when available.
Maryland Sports Betting Revenue Expectations: What Do State Officials Think?
Maryland state officials estimate that sports wagering could generate up to $20 million a year in tax revenue. The state government has also explicitly stated that the main purpose of this revenue will be to fund public education.
However, given the size of the Maryland market and the recent successes of nearby states such as Virginia and Tennessee, we think the state’s estimate is conservative. Our guess is state officials are taking an under-promise and over-deliver approach with their estimates.
At a base tax rate of 15 percent, it would take a gross gaming revenue of approximately $133 million annually to generate $20 million in state tax revenue. Simply put, this pales in comparison to what we’re seeing already in Virginia and Tennessee. Both are on track for a gross gaming revenue of $185 million or more in their first 12 months, let alone at market maturity in 2-3 years from now. If Maryland were to match this pace, which we believe it can, that would amount to $27 million in taxes in year one alone. That’s 35 percent more than state officials are projecting for a mature market.
Additional analysis by fellow industry insiders at PlayMaryland.com and MarylandSharp.com suggests Maryland sportsbooks could bring in up to $225 million in gross revenue, which would result in closer to $35 million in state tax revenue.
Rest assured, when legal sports wagering launches in Maryland, we’ll be tracking all the financial figures right here at Sports Betting Dime. We’ll provide up-to-date analysis as official revenue reports start coming in. For now, just know that Maryland looks to be a very competitive new sports betting market in 2021 and beyond.
Maryland Revenue: Advantages
By allowing up to 60 online sportsbook operators to enter the Maryland market, lawmakers have set up the most permissive and competitive legal sports wagering markets of any US state to date. Such competition is bound to benefit consumers in the form of fair odds and enticing promotions. This leads us to believe the Maryland market has enormous potential. It’s also great to see the state making efforts to support minority-owned small businesses and diversity initiatives within sports betting. This expansive approach may help attract a wider customer base.
Looking at the recent successes of newer markets such as the aforementioned Virginia and Tennessee as well as Colorado and Michigan, Maryland can take in billions in sports betting handle each year. It’s also a huge plus that Maryland will allow wagers on in-state college teams. This means you can wager on the Maryland Terrapins and the Navy Midshipmen while within state lines. In other states, betting on local collegiate teams has proven very popular, especially during college football season or March Madness.
The fact that online betting will be available from day one and remote registration is allowed should set up the Old Line State for a grand opening in fall 2021, which coincides with the 2021-22 NFL season. The NFL is by far the most popular league to wager on in America, so Maryland lawmakers’ push to launch during the season should pay off in spades.
Maryland Revenue: Possible Challenges
One thing to be conscious of when considering Maryland’s sports betting revenue is the level of competition from nearby markets. Maryland is surrounded by jurisdictions that all have some form of legal sports wagering. It will be the first market to launch under such circumstances, so it will be interesting to see what effect this may have.
Furthermore, Maryland does not have a big sports tourism industry, meaning the market will rely predominantly on local bettors.
Latest MD Revenue News
Here’s a quick rundown of recent revenue-related news for Maryland.
May 2021 – Maryland Governor Larry Hogan signs House Bill 940, legalizing sports betting. The base tax rate set is at 15 percent. The rate will increase to 17.5 percent when an operator reaches an annual mobile wagering revenue of over $5 million. The state continues working towards a target launch in fall 2021.
Learn More About Betting on Sports in MD and Beyond
With the Old Line State getting ready to enter a new era of legal sports betting, be sure to check out our list of top online sportsbooks to wager with.
As Maryland moves closer to launch day, Sports Betting Dime will provide exclusive promo codes for top sports betting sites. We’ll also keep you informed of any important updates regarding rules and regulations sports bettors should be aware of.
To see how Maryland stacks up against other states, you can explore our state-by-state sports betting revenue tracker.