2021 MLB MVP Odds Tracker

• See each contender’s odds of winning the 2021 AL and NL MVP awards
• In August, Shohei Ohtani became a massive favorite in the AL, while Fernando Tatis Jr and Bryce Harper lead a tight race in the NL
• The graphs below track the changes in the odds over the course of the season

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The graphs below have been generated by averaging the odds from a number of top online sportsbooks to give you a better sense of each player’s chances of winning the 2021 AL and NL Most Valuable Player Awards.

• AL / NL

2021 American League MVP Odds

Top Contenders

• Oct. 3: With the regular season over, Ohtani’s stats put him in a class above and his odds shortened to a crazy -10000.
• Sep. 26: Guerrero shortened to +725, but Ohtani is still at -3000 with only a handful of games to go.
• Sep. 20: Guerrero closed the massive chasm of gap between himself and Ohtani a little more. He’s now at +750 while Ohtani faded to -3000.
• Sep. 16: Ohtani’s odds got longer for the first time since mid-July. That said, they only went from -6000 to -5250. Guerrero improved from +1550 to +1050 as his Jays make a playoff push.
• Sep. 12: Despite Guerrero’s Blue Jays sweeping the Yankees in a four-game series in NY, his odds (+1550) did not improve.
• Sep. 6: Ohtani’s latest odds, -6000, correspond to a 98.36% implied probability.
• Aug. 30: Guerrero’s odds (+1450) are fading just like his Blue Jays.
• Aug. 22: There’s not much to say anymore. Ohtani FTW.
• Aug. 16: Ohtani (-1050) keeps raking while Guerrero’s Jays are fading out of the playoff picture. His MVP odds faded to +700.
• Aug. 11: No change at the top. Ohtani (-750) continues to sit miles ahead of Guerrero Jr (+600).
• Aug. 8: The air of inevitability around Ohtani continues to grow. His odds shortened to -750 while second-favorite Guerrero Jr faded from +500 to +600.
• Aug. 2: This has become the most-lopsided race in the majors with Ohtani now at -700 and second-favorite Guerrero fading to +500.
• July 28: Ohtani is at a season-best -365 with Guerrero Jr falling back to +283. Matt Olson and Rafael Devers are now co-third-favorites, but still a distant +4000.
• July 19: Ohtani had a quiet week and faded from -313 to -283 (still a heavy favorite). Guerrero improved from +230 to +205.
• July 13: Guerrero ( +230) fell further back of favorite Ohtani, who improved significantly to -313. Third-favorite Bogaerts continues to reside at a dista0nt +4000.
• July 5: Ohtani is back to being the favorite at -173. He was the first to reach the 30-homer plateau and is showing no signs of ill health.
• June 28: Guerrero’s lead over Ohtani is almost nil at this point; they are at +100 and +102, respectively.
• June 21: Guerrero (+105) and Ohtani (+150) have put more distance between themselves and the second-tier contenders. Third-favorite Bogaerts faded from +2000 to +2400.
• June 14: Guerrero is the outright favorite for the first time this season ( +128) Ohtani fell from +125 to +158. Third-favorite Bogaerts is way back at +2000.
• June 7: Guerrero is nearly level with Ohtani after another big week, improving to +228 while Ohtani remained at +125.
• May 25: Vlad Guerrero Jr improved from +775 to +425, closing the gap on Ohtani, who stayed at +138.
• May 19: Mike Trout’s calf injury, which will sideline him for nearly two months, has led to his odds fading from +200 to +1050. Ohtani is now at +133, shorter than Trout has been all season.
• May 5: The top-four favorites all got shorter: Trout (+205 to +200) Ohtani (+1067 to +867), Buxton (+1567 to +983), and Guerrero (+1933 to +1167). Most of the other top-15 faded, in turn.
• Apr. 27: Byron Buxton is now tied for third-favorite at +1500 with perennial contender Alex Bregman.
• Apr. 20: Ohtani consolidated his grip on second, improving from +1167 to +1033.
• Apr. 12:  Trout faded from +210 to +218. Ohtani improved even further: +1450 to +1167.
• Apr. 6: Shohei Ohtani has started hot on the mound and at the plate, in turn becoming a top-five AL MVP favorite at  +1450. He was +2350 on Opening Day.
• Mar. 25: Mike Trout’s odds faded from +200 to +223 a week from opening day. But none of this main competitors improved significantly.
• Feb. 12: Just as he has for each of the last six seasons, Mike Trout (LAA) is the chalk in the AL, and it’s not close. At +200, Trout has a 33.33% implied probability. Next on the list is Alex Bregman at +1000 (9.1%).

AL MVP Odds

Odds as of Oct. 3, 2021.

2021 National League MVP Odds

Top Contenders

• Oct. 3: Soto surged to second-favorite with an absolute heater over the final weeks of the season. Harper (-203) is still a heavy favorite, but Soto (+193) is given a reasonable shot.
• Sep. 26: Harper’s late surge continued. He’s now -293. Tatis faded to _325. Soto improved a lot, moving from +3000 to +460.
• Sep. 20: There’s a new favorite in town! Harper (-123) is, for the first time all season, the chalk in the  NL with about 15 games remaining.
• Sep. 16: The gap between Tatis (-200) and Harper (+275) shrunk again, but there are now fewer than 20 games remaining.
• Sep. 12: Harper improved again (from +550 to +380), while Tatis Jr stayed at -250.
• Sep. 6: Harper (+550) is back to being the second-favorite, but Tatis Jr (-280) is still miles ahead of the field.
• Aug. 30: Tatis came back from -300 to -260. But none of the three main contenders made big gains. It’s still Tatis Jr vs the field.
• Aug. 22: Tatis improved to -300. Max Muncy is the new second-favorite at a distant +750. Former second-favorite Harper faded from +490 to +1100.
• Aug. 16: A nice week of production from Tatis Jr led to his odds getting considerably shorter (+100 to -280). Harper faded from +335 to +480. Muncy dropped even further (+655 to +950).
• Aug. 11: Harper’s ascension continues. He’s now +270, while Tatis Jr is back in plus-money (+100). Third-favorite Muncy improved slightly from +475 to +460.
• Aug. 8: Harper (+400) has exploded into the top two. He was a +3225 longshot last week.
• Aug. 2: A slump from Tatis and an injury to deGrom have made this into an unpredictable race again. Newest Dodger Trea Turner improved from +2150 to the +350 second-favorite since being dealt from Washington at the deadline.
• July 28: The last two weeks brought a huge swing thanks to deGrom missing time. Tatis Jr surged from +123 to -210, while deGrom faded from -110 to +175. Trea Turner is now third at +2150.
• July 13: Tatis Jr improved from +180 to +123 entering the All Star break, but deGrom moved into minus odds for the first time this season (+104 to -110). Third-favorite Acuna is nominally at +750 but suffered a season-ending knee injury on Saturday and will not be on the list much longer.
• July 5: deGrom (+125 to +104) and Tatis (+188 to +180) both shortened in what has become a two-horse race, much like Ohtani and Guerrero in the AL.
• June 28: Top-two favorites deGrom and Tatis both improved; deGrom’s odds moved from +193 to +125. Tatis’ odds moved from +225 to +188.
• June 21: deGrom improved from +200 to +193, the shortest any NL player has been this season. But Tatis Jr also improved from +263 to +225, keeping it a tight race.
• June 14: With the top bats slumping, deGrom has improved significantly from +675 to +200. Tatis Jr is a close second at +263.
• June 7: Tatis (+315) has taken over top spot from Acuna (+375) while deGrom’s untouchable season on the mound continued, improving his odds from +1100 to +675.
• May 25: Acuna improved from +300 to +268, but Tatis Jr made  a quantum leap from +1025 to +450, entrenching himself as the second-favorite.
• May 5: Odds-on Cy Young favorite Jacob deGrom is now tied for second in the NL MVP odds, as well, at +800.
• Apr. 27: Tatis Jr is putting up decent numbers since his return from injury and moved back among the top-three favorites at +800. Acuna remains well ahead of the pack at +300.
• Apr. 20: Acuna (+317) shows no signs of slowing down. Slashing .419/.486/.887 with a 1.373 OPS, he leads the NL in average, slugging percentage, and RBI (16).
• Apr. 12: Ronald Acuna has become the clear favorite at  +567. He was back at +800 a week ago.
• Apr. 6:  None of the NL favorites are off to terribly hot starts. Bellinger (+967) is the only member of the top five who saw his odds get shorter since Opening Day.
• Mar. 25:  Soto (+725) is now alone at the top, but Betts (+750), Tatis Jr (+775), and Acuna (+775) are all hot on his tail.
• Feb. 12: Mookie Betts (LAD) and Juan Soto (WAS) have opened as NL MVP co-favorites at +750.

2021 NL MVP Odds

Odds as of Oct. 3, 2021.

MLB MVP Winners by Position

AL MVP Winners by Position

NL MVP Winners by Position

MLB MVP Winners by Team

AL MVP Winners by Team

NL MVP Winners by Team

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Archived Cy Young Odds: 2020, 2019, 2018