Week 3 was as crazy as it gets with the Bengals allowing 30 unanswered points from the Packers and still winning the contest, or with the Browns and Lions winning away from home.
However, nothing was more shocking than the Giants getting smashed 38-0 at Carolina, in the worst performance by a Tom Coughlin team, ever.
It’s time to move on from week 3 and get ahead with the NFL Week 4 Picks.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 at Cleveland Browns +5. Game Total: 41
The Bengals are 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland, and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing the Browns overall.
The Browns beat the Vikings in Minnesota with tight end Jordan Cameron catching three TDs passes; I’m not sure the Bengals defense has a favorable matchup against Cameron.
Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton threw three interceptions the last time he met the Browns at Cleveland. He remains as an inconsistent player, especially with all the weapons he has available.
NFL Pick: Browns +5.
Indianapolis Colts -8 vs Jacksonville Jaguars +8. Game Total: 43
The Jaguars can’t stop anybody on defense, and can’t put up points on offense to compete. They score less than 10 points a game as an average. Jacksonville is also 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home.
The Colts just beat a Super Bowl contender, San Francisco 49ers, in their own building. They not only beat them; they dominated them.
Keep in mind Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS when playing the Jaguars at Jacksonville.
NFL Pick: Colts -8.
Seattle Seahawks -3 at Houston Texans +3. Game Total: 43
The Seahawks are the best team in the NFL on my mind, but I don’t like betting teams that go from the West Coast to play at 1 PM ET, not even these Seahawks. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games, but 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
These two franchises have met only twice, but the home team always won by a large margin.
I like this one to be a close one, perhaps less than a field goal difference.
NFL Pick: Texans +3.
Dallas Cowboys -2 at San Diego Chargers +2. Game Total: 45.5
The Chargers are a decent team; they are 1-2, but they easily could be 3-0. Their defense allows big plays, but their offense is good enough to put plenty of points on the board.
Consider the total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games.
Dallas defense is better than last season, but they still allowed 31 points from the Giants and 17 from a Kansas City team that has problems getting the ball into the end zone.
I like this one to be a high scoring game, with two quarterbacks than can throw touchdowns and pick sixes in a matter of seconds.
NFL Pick: Bet the over.
New England Patriots +1.5 vs Atlanta Falcons -1.5. Game Total: 49.5
Tom Brady is getting better this season as he learns how to handle the rookie wide receivers he has around, but the Patriots offense is far from being what it was over the last few years.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is 34-5 at home since he joined the league; it’s not easy to beat the Falcons in Atlanta. New England is 2-4 straight up in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
NFL Pick: Falcons -1.5
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