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KBO Picks & Odds (October 16): All-In on Casey Kelly

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in News

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 10:38 AM PST

Doosan Bears stadium in Seoul
The Doosan Bears stadium in Seoul. Photo by Johnny Silvercloud (flickr)
  • LG’s Casey Kelly is fresh off a complete game shutout versus first place NC
  • Lotte’s Seung Heon Lee hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBO’s five-game slate on October 16th in the article below

If there’s one thing the KBO has taught us this year is that the league is wildly unpredictable. Totals in the high teen’s and 20’s are a common occurrence, and nobody bats an eye when a team goes on a double-digit winning or losing streak.

The calibre of starting pitching is extremely weak, which places an even greater emphasis on the few true aces around the league. A couple of those elite pitchers will toe the rubber on Friday, at 5:30 am EST, including LG’s Casey Kelly.

 KBO Odds: Friday, October 16th

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Doosan Bears +152 +1.5 (-134) Over 9.5 (-130) 5:30 a.m.
Kiwoom Heroes -188 -1.5 (+106) Under 9.5 (+102)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
KT Wiz Suwon -225 -1.5 (-136) Over 9.5 (-128) 5:30 a.m.
SK Wyverns +178 +1.5 (+108) Under 9.5 (+100)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
KIA Tigers +118 +1.5 (-182) Over 7.5 (-130) 5:30 a.m.
LG Twins -142 -1.5 (+142) Under 7.5 (+104)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Lotte Giants +350 +4.5 (-186) Over 10.5 (-102) 5:30 a.m.
NC Dinos -480 -4.5 (+146) Under 10.5 (-124)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Samsung Lions -230 -1.5 (-134) Over 8.5 (-122) 5:30 a.m.
Hanwha Eagles +184 +1.5 (+106) Under 8.5 (-104)

Odds as of  Oct. 15th at FanDuel.

The Twins opened up as -142 moneyline favorites over visiting KIA, and Kelly will look to extend his personal win streak to seven games.

Twins Topple Tigers

Kelly is coming off his best start of the season, tossing a complete game, two-hit shutout versus first place NC. The 31-year-old rang up six Dinos’ batters, improving his strikeout-to-walk rate to an impressive 125-38.

Kelly has been arguably the KBO’s top pitcher since August, allowing two or fewer runs in six of his past seven outings, a stretch that includes showdowns with the league’s first, third, fourth and fifth place teams (LG is currently second).

He’s 2-0 versus the Tigers this season, holding them to two earned runs over 13 innings, while striking out 11.

KIA will counter with Drew Gagnon, who’s been on a very impressive run of his own lately. Prior to his last start, he’d surrendered two or fewer earned runs in seven straight, racking up four wins along the way. He struggled in his lone outing against LG this season however, allowing five runs and seven hits over 4 innings.

Oddsmakers clearly expect a low-scoring game, with the total currently sitting at 7.5 (the lowest I’ve seen all year), but it’s hard to pass on LG straight up given how well Kelly is pitching.

Pick: LG Twins moneyline (-142)

Lotte and NC Go Under

Speaking of elite starters, the KBO’s winningest pitcher will take the ball for NC on Friday, looking to shut down seventh place Lotte.

Drew Rucinski will chase his 19th win of the season, but instead of messing around with the Dinos’ absurd -480 moneyline, or their -4.5 runline, let’s focus on the under instead.

Rucinski has surrendered a total of four runs over his past three starts, and has held the opposition below three runs in 67% of his outings this season. The Giants have crossed the plate three times or less in four of their past six, and rank seventh in runs per game and ninth in total homers.

YouTube video

Another reason to be optimistic about the under is Lotte starter Seung Heon Lee. After a shaky first two starts, the rookie has been stellar in back-to-back outings. He hasn’t surrendered a run in his past 13 innings, and has posted a 12-2 strikeout-to-walk rate during that stretch.

Pick: Under 10.5 (-124)

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