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KBO Picks & Odds (September 26): Dinos in Cruise Control

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in News

Sep 25, 2020 · 12:50 PM PDT

An NC Dinos hitter swinging the bat
Photo by 노무진, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons.
  • NC has won six straight to open up a 3.5-game lead top the KBO standings
  • Samsung’s David Buchanan is 4-0, with a 1.29 ERA versus SK this season
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBO’s five-game slate on September 26th in the article below

For a few weeks it seemed like NC might be getting ready to relinquish control of top spot in the KBO. Well we can officially put that thought to bed. The Dinos have won six straight to open up a 3.5-game lead on second place Kiwoom, and will be looking to continue their hot run on Saturday, at 4:00 am EST, versus Hanwha.

 KBO Odds: Saturday, September 26th

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Kiwoom Heroes +196 +1.5 (-108) Over 9.5 (+100) 4:00 a.m.
Doosan Bears -245 -1.5 (-118) Under 9.5 (-128)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
LG Twins +140 +1.5 (-136) Over 12.5 (-106) 4:00 a.m.
KT Wiz Suwon -170 -1.5 (+108) Under 12.5 (-120)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Lotte Giants +126 +1.5 (-160) Over 10.5 (-112) 4:00 a.m.
KIA Tigers -154 -1.5 (+126) Under 10.5 (-112)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
NC Dinos -300 -1.5 (-174) Over 9.5 (-116) 4:00 a.m.
Hanwha Eagles +230 +1.5 (+138) Under 9.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
SK Wyverns +280 +1.5 (+128) Over 10.5 (-104) 4:00 a.m.
Samsung Lions -370 -1.5 (-164) Under 10.5 (-122)

Odds as of Sept. 25th at FanDuel.

The Dinos opened up as a big road favorite over the Eagles, but instead of chasing those short odds, let’s focus on the Over instead.

Attack the Over

The total opened up at 9.5, which seems low given the strength of NC’s offense. The Dinos have scored 30 runs this week alone, and are fresh off putting up 19 in a two game sweep of LG.

They’ve crossed the plate at least six times in six of their last eight games, and average a half run more per game than any other team. Saturday’s matchup versus Hanwha’s Min Woo Kim is appealing, and one they’ve taken advantage of before.

NC has faced Kim three times this season, scoring 10 times in 15 innings. Kim has made it out of the 6th inning just twice in in his last 14 starts, and the Eagles bullpen has an ERA over 5 at home.

Dinos starter Mike Wright meanwhile, was excellent in his last outing, but has been inconsistent over the last month. He’s just one start removed from allowing seven runs and eight hits versus Doosan, and the last time he faced Hanwha, he surrendered four runs in 5 innings.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-116)

SK and Samsung Stay Low

While we love the Over in the Dinos vs Eagles clash, it’s the Under that sticks out in the SK vs Samsung matchup. Prior to Friday, SK had been outscored by 34 runs over its past seven outings, and have averaged just 4.1 runs per game in September. That number is likely to get smaller after Saturday, as they’ll have to deal with Samsung’s David Buchanan.

The right-hander has dominated the Wyverns this season, posting a 4-0 record, with a 1.29 ERA. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his four starts against SK, shutting them out twice.

Buchanan vs SK in 2020

Date IP ER H K
Aug. 20 6.0 3 10 3
Aug. 7 7.0 0 3 3
July 1 9.0 1 4 7
June 7 6.0 0 4 5

The 31-year-old has held opponents to three runs or less in six of his past eight outings, and ranks top-10 in ERA and WHIP.

Samsung’s bats meanwhile, are one of only three offenses (along with SK and Hanwha) that average less than 5 runs per game (4.95). Yes, they have a favorable matchup versus Young-Woo Jo, but the 25-year-old has pitched much better recently. He’s allowed just two runs and 11 hits over his past 14.1 innings, and should be able to keep the Lions somewhat in check.

Pick: Under 10.5 (-122)

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