AFC Championship Betting – Can Colts Stay Hot vs. Patriots? (UPDATED)

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 52.5 o/u)

The New England Patriots (12-4, 7-1 home) narrowly avoided an opening-round home loss last weekend, coming from 14 points down twice to beat the Baltimore Ravens, 35-31. The Pats didn’t cover the seven-point spread; nonetheless, they are now one win away from returning to the Super Bowl.

“We’re very fortunate to be in this position to have a chance to play in [the AFC Championship Game],” New England quarterback Tom Brady said. “I think more so than anything, you’re just excited for the opportunity to be able to do it. It’s hard to do and our team found a way to get there this year so hopefully we can take advantage of the opportunity.”

The Patriots received big performances from tight end Rob Gronkowski (108 yards receiving and one touchdown) and, finally, wide receiver Danny Amendola (81 yards receiving and two touchdowns). The former Miami Dolphin, who was brought in to replace Wes Welker, has largely been a disappointment during his tenure in New England, putting up just 200 receiving yards in 16 games during the regular season.

The Patriots will likely need Amendola to stay hot this weekend when they the Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 5-3 away). Indy is playing its best football of the year in the playoffs, dominating the Bengals (26-10) in the Wild Card round and handing Denver its first home loss of the year (24-13) in the Divisional Playoffs. (Indy covered in both games.)

Though Colts QB Andrew Luck has never beaten New England (0-3), he is playing like a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback of late, throwing for 641 yards and three touchdowns on 66.7% passing in the playoffs. The surprisingly mobile 6’4″ QB has also added 39 rushing yards on just four attempts.

Naturally, Bill Belichick’s defense will be keying on Luck.

“If [Luck] extends the play, then he has the ability to create big plays,” said Belichick. “We’ve seen him do that multiple times throughout his career already. It’s another guy you have to defend in the running game, the passing game in terms of his ability to scramble and make first-down yardage on possession-type downs. And he makes good decisions, so all those things are a problem.”

Luck, who led the league with 40 passing TDs this year, said the Colts are gelling at the right time.

“I think we’re playing good team ball,” said Luck. “We’re feeding off each other. Offensively we’re making enough plays to put some points on the board.”

And he’s not concerned about the 42-20 loss the Pats handed the Colts in week 7 this year. “I’d like to think I am a better quarterback and would like to think we’re a better team. We are well equipped to handle the unknown, the unforeseen,” said the young pivot.

The Colts are 8-2 straight-up over their last ten games and seem to have saved their best for the playoffs. Indianapolis and the money line (+231) is the play.

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)