The ATP World Tour Finals (WTF) will get underway in London on November 14. The tourney will feature eight players in two groups of four. Each group will play a round-robin and the group winners will advance to the final.
Barring injuries – or a big run from Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic, or David Goffin in the next month – the field for the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals (WTF) will feature the following eight players:
- Novak Djokovic
- Andy Murray
- Stan Wawrinka
- Milos Raonic
- Kei Nishikori
- Gael Monfils
- Dominic Thiem
- Rafael Nadal
Noticeably absent is Roger Federer, who is out for the remainder of the year with a knee injury. Federer hasn’t won the event since 2011, but he has been the biggest challenger to four-time reigning champ Novak Djokovic, losing three of the last four finals to the Serbian.
With Fed out, can anyone seriously challenge the world’s number one player? It’s time to take a look at the odds.
2016 ATP World Tour Finals Odds
Novak Djokovic: 5/3
Djokovic has been great, but not unbeatable, this year. He won the first two majors (Australia and Roland Garros, both over Murray in the finals), but was bounced in the third round at Wimbledon and lost in the finals at the US Open (to Wawrinka). He’s still the number one player in the world and the deserving chalk thanks to his complete game that can dominate any player on any surface.
Andy Murray: 3/1
Murray won his second Wimbledon title this year and his second straight Olympic gold. He also reached the finals at the Aussie and French Opens. A quarterfinal loss at the US Open to Nishikori came as a bit of a surprise, but he’s still playing some of the best tennis of his career and is undoubtedly the second-best player in the world. With the tournament being played at O2 Arena in London, he’ll get a similar home-crowd boost as at Wimbledon.
Stan Wawrinka: 8/1
Stan Wawrinka is about the only player in the world who can hang with Djokovic and Murray when they’re at their best (or just below it). He puts together some amazing performances, and has three major titles on his resume as a result (Australian Open 2014, French Open 2015, US Open 2016). Stan has just never been able to keep his game at that level for any extended period of time. His brilliance comes and goes like the tide.
This season has been one of his best, though, and he’s the only reasonable darkhorse in the field.
If anyone else from the field (Raonic, Nishikori, Monfils, Thiem, and Nadal) takes the title, I’ll be incredibly surprised. Apart from Nadal – whose best days are way behind him – the field has zero Grand Slam wins to its credit. While the WTF is a different beast, in terms of format, winning will likely require beating both Murray and Djokovic at some point. (As the top two players in the world, Murray and Djokovic will be in different groups.) Any of these guys is capable of pulling one upset. Beating both in close succession is too tall an order.
Photo credit: globalite [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.