Belmont Stakes and Beyond – Props and Odds

This Saturday, American Pharoah will look to become horse racing’s first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. Trainer Bob Baffert has been in this position three times before – i..e heading into the Belmont with the first two jewels of the Triple Crown in his pocket. In 1997, Silver Charm finished second in the Belmont; the next year, Real Quiet was the runner up; and, in 2002, War Emblem fell to his knees at the start, crushing his Triple Crown chances.

Overall, American Pharoah is the 14th horse since Affirmed to enter the Belmont with a chance at the Triple Crown. The most recent came just last year as California Chrome faded to a fourth-place finish.

So what will this year’s “Test of the Champion” hold? Will American Pharoah make history? Will he suffer a tragic accident? Can NBC go two minutes without mentioning Affirmed?

Here are all the odds – both serious and less so – for Saturday’s marathon at Belmont Park.

2015 Belmont Stakes Odds and Props:

Odds American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown: 3/5

Odds American Pharoah does not finish the Belmont because:

• he trips on another horse: 50/1
• he knocks his jockey,Victor Espinoza, to the ground: 75/1
• Espinoza gets dirt in his eyes and pulls up on reigns 100/1
• he breaks a leg: 150/1
• he’s startled by a flash bulb in the eye during the race 150/1
• he goes the wrong way: 200/1
• he jumps over the railing onto the infield: 250/1
• another horse bumps him off track: 250/1
• his bridle falls off: 250/1

Over/under on time for American Pharoah as winner: 2:30.00

Odds a fan streaks the track: 250/1

Odds the aforementioned fan is Wes Welker: 100/1

Over/under on the number of times the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, is mentioned during broadcast: 15

Odds a thunderstorm cancels the race: 1000/1

Odds the aforementioned thunderstorm is caused by the ghost of Affirmed: 100000/1

Over/under on the number of fans in attendance: 90,650

Over/under on TV rating: 11.2

Over/under on the number of times American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat is shown during the broadcast: 9

Over/under on the number of new NBC TV show promotions: 3

Over/under on how many of the aforementioned shows are cancelled in the first season: 2.5

(Photo credit: By Mike L Photo’s (Flickr: Union Rags – 2012 Belmont Stakes) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)