BETS OFF Bill Seeks to Ban Prediction Markets Involving Government Actions

• U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act
• The BETS OFF Act bans betting on government actions, including war, terrorism, and assassination
• The BETS OFF Act comes after recent suspicious betting activity on prediction markets regarding government actions

---

A bicameral federal bill hopes to ban all prediction market activity surrounding certain government actions, including acts of war, terrorism, and assassination.

Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01), U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) and Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ-03) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. The federal legislation will ban wagering on government actions and events where individuals know or control the outcome.

“The people entrusted with our nation’s most sensitive secrets and our service members’ lives should not be able to gamble on outcomes they influence,” Amo said in a press release. “It’s a blatant conflict of interest and the height of unethical behavior. I’m proud to introduce the BETS OFF Act to stop betting markets from facilitating powerful politicians and their pawns from putting their personal enrichment over the public’s trust.”

Prohibiting Suspicious Prediction Markets

The BETS OFF Act, if legalized, will prohibit the follow prediction markets from being offered to consumers:

• An act of terrorism
• An assassination
• An act of war
• Any action taken by the government in which the outcome is under the complete control of any person
• Any action taken by the government in which the outcome is known by any person in advance

The bill comes in the wake of several large payouts through prediction market contracts stemming from U.S. military action. According to the Wall Street Journal, a mystery trader profited $400,000 on Polymarket betting on Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro’s ousting just several hours before the U.S. took action against the country.

Additionally, NPR reported a user named “Magamyman” profited $553,000 placing bets on Polymarket regarding Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, hours before an Israeli air strike killed him earlier this month.

“Prediction markets sell themselves as a place where everyone has an equal shot at winning big. The reality is they’re rigged against ordinary people and ripe for abuse – especially when betting on government actions” Ansari said. “When the President and national security officials are making life and death decisions, the last thing they should be considering is whether they can personally profit. This bill puts an end to that corruption and disturbing national security risk.”

Latest Bill Prohibiting Certain Prediction Markets

The BETS OFF Act is the latest in several federal bills to prohibit certain aspects of the prediction market industry.

Earlier this month, Reps. Blake Moore (R-UT) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) introduced a bill to prohibit the trading of all event contracts related to sports, terrorism, assassination, war, election outcomes, or illegal activity.

The Event Contract Enforcement Act seeks to “amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit event contracts based on terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, illegal activity, election outcomes, government activities, or other activities determined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to be contrary to the public interest.”

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)also introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act in February, which aims to prohibit prediction market companies from offering sporting event or casino-style gaming contracts throughout the U.S.

Titus introduced HR 7477 on Feb. 10. If approved, a “registered entity may not list for trading, facilitate, or clear any agreement, contract, or transaction that is based on, references, or derives its value from, or otherwise involves any sporting event or athletic competition; or any casino-style game.”

Additionally, Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) recently introduced the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act,” a bill to ban the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and other top-federal election official from trading event contracts.

The introduced bill came after large payouts from prediction markets stemming from U.S. strikes on Iran and Venezuela military actions.

“When public officials use non-public information to win a bet, you have the perfect recipe to undermine the public’s belief that government officials are working for the public good, not for their own personal profits,” Merkley said in a released statement. “Perfectly timed bets on prediction markets have the unmistakable stench of corruption. To protect the public interest, Congress must step up and pass my End Prediction Market Corruption Act to crack down on this bad bet for democracy.”