Canelo vs Crawford Prediction, Odds & Tale of the Tape

• Canelo Alvarez is a -180 favorite to beat Terence Crawford in Las Vegas on Saturday
• Crawford is moving up two weight classes to fight Canelo
• See below for my Canelo vs Crawford prediction, updated odds and tale of the tape for this fight

One of the biggest fights in recent memory goes down Saturday night as Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2) faces undefeated Terence Crawford (41-0) in a super middleweight bout. The American is looking to become the first undisputed men’s champion in three weight classes, but online sportsbooks don’t like his chances. They’ve listed Canelo as a sizeable favorite, and I predict the Mexican superstar’s size and power will be too much for Crawford to overcome.

The fight will take place inside the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, with Netflix handling the broadcast duties starting at 9 pm ET.

Canelo vs Crawford Prediction

• Canelo Alvarez to win by Decision or Technical Decision (+120 at Bet365)

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Physically, the odds are stacked against Crawford. He’s had exactly one fight above the 147-pound welterweight division, and now he’s jumping up to the 168-pound category. Alvarez, meanwhile, is expected to enter the ring nearly 10 pounds heavier than the 168-pound limit after rehydration, and many (including myself) doubt Crawford has the power to hurt him.

Make no mistake, there are reasons to like Crawford. He’s faster, better conditioned and crafty. He’s scored 31 knockouts in 41 professional fights, including a prolific thrashing of Errol Spence Jr that made him the first four-belt champion at two weights.

However, his jump to 154 pounds was uninspiring. Yes, he defeated Ismail Madrimov to earn the title, but the margin of victory was razor-thin. Alvarez is bigger and stronger than Madrimov, and has never been knocked down in 67 career professional fights.

That includes many bouts against bigger, stronger fighters than Crawford. Canelo is no stranger to moving up classes himself, and even the biggest names at light heavyweight couldn’t drop him.

Alvarez was able to find success at the next class in large part because he was already considered one of the most powerful fighters in his own division. The jump wasn’t that big, but that won’t be the case for Crawford.

The American is skipping two weight classes altogether, and instead of taking a tune-up fight against a lesser opponent, he’s jumping into the fire against one of the best of all-time. The degree of difficulty is astronomical, and it’s forced Crawford to gain too much weight too fast.

Neither one of these fighters typically throw a ton of punches, which favors Alvarez. He can be patient in the first few rounds and adjust to Crawford’s speed and strategy. Once Canelo figures him out, he can start picking him apart. I predict Alvarez will wind up bullying the American during the later half of the fight, which will ultimately score him the decision.

At this stage in his career, Alvarez isn’t interested in going for the kill. He’s proven he’s comfortable cruising to victory the moment he recognizes his opponent can’t hurt him. The odds are significantly in favor of this fight going the distance (-360), and I’m betting Canelo will be victorious at the final bell.

Updated Canelo vs Crawford Odds

Odds at Bet365. Get the Bet365 bonus code to use on the Canelo vs Crawford fight.

The odds of this bout vary greatly across different sportsbooks, so make sure to shop for the most favorable number using the best boxing betting sites. Canelo is currently listed as a -180 moneyline favorite at Bet365, with Crawford coming back as a +145 underdog.

Alvarez is +120 to win by decision, and +375 to win by a knockout, while Crawford is +220 and +1000 in those categories, respectively. Canelo has won each of his last five fights by unanimous decision, while Crawford had scored a knockout in 11 straight fights before moving up to junior middleweight and earning a decision.

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Canelo vs Crawford Tale of the Tape

This fight is a rare instance where two of the top-10 pound-for-pound boxers will square off. If Crawford is able to pull off the upset, his name will most surely jump to the top of the list given the historic nature of the accomplishment.

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

Canelo is expected to win, so less accolades will come his way should he defeat Crawford. Alvarez initially turned down a fight with Crawford, stating he has nothing to gain by beating a smaller opponent, but obviously the ante was upped and the amount of money was too big to turn down.