Canelo vs. GGG: No Matter Who Wins, It Won’t Beat May-Mac
This weekend, two boxing superstars — Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) and Canelo Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) — will square off in their highly anticipated mega-fight at T-Mobile in Las Vegas. In almost any other year, this would be the biggest fight on the calendar. But in a year that also featured the spectacle that was Mayweather/McGregor, it’s nothing more than an also-ran when it comes to public interest.
Sure Latino fans and boxing purists are going to order the PPV in droves. But not nearly as many fair-weather fight fans will be shelling out to see the undefeated Kazakh take on Guadalajara’s favorite son.
Still, the middleweight title fight will be one for the ages. Either the aging GGG will add another notch to his storied bedpost, or the somehow-only-25 Canelo Alvarez will earn arguably the biggest win of his career and a couple shiny new title belts.
Let’s preview the fight and the sideshow through the magic of odds.
FIGHT PROPS
ODDS THE FIGHT ENDS IN A …
- Knockout/TKO: 1/1
- Draw: 33/1
- Unanimous decision: 5/2
- Split/majority decision: 9/2
- Disqualification: 49/1
OVER/UNDER ROUNDS: 10.5
Make no mistake, this fight could end early. GGG has the unmerciful power to end any fight in the first couple rounds, and those early rounds will undoubtedly be the most perilous for Canelo. But even if the Cinnamon Man makes it past round two, Golovkin’s strength could gradually wear him down and force a later stoppage.
If the fight hits the over, that’s great news for Alvarez. He’s the faster man and should be able to out-point Golovkin if he’s not getting tagged with the power shots liable to end the bout.
ODDS THE FIGHT LASTS LONGER THAN MAYWEATHER/MCGREGOR: 10/9
When you factor in both knockout and DQ, it’s a little better than 50/50 that Canelo/GGG doesn’t go the distance. May-Mac was stopped just over a minute into the tenth round, leaving 2.5 rounds (roughly 20% of the fight) for Canelo/GGG to both end in a knockout/DQ and go longer than May-Mac.
ODDS WINNER CALLS OUT FLOYD MAYWEATHER DURING IN-RING INTERVIEW OR POST-FIGHT PRESS CONFERENCE: 3/1
Five years ago, this would have been a certifiable guarantee. Both fighters have a history of call-outs, and a fight with Floyd would be a massive payday for both. But Canelo already had his shot at Money (losing a unanimous decision back in 2013) and Mayweather is retired … again.
ODDS WINNER AGREES TO A REMATCH WITHIN 24 HOURS AFTER THE FIGHT: 9/1
PROPS ON PROPS
OVER/UNDER CLOSING MONEYLINE FOR GGG (Westgate, Las Vegas): -140
When this superfight was still grist for the rumor mill, you could bet on Alvarez at a tasty +265. Then Golovkin went an uncharacteristic 12 rounds with Daniel Jacobs in March, showing his advancing age, and bettors have been hammering Canelo’s moneyline ever since, driving his price down. Alvarez is currently sitting at about +130/+135 to GGG’s -150/-155. Those numbers should trend a little further in the younger man’s favor over the next 36 hours; many pundits are now pegging this as a veritable coin flip.
ODDS CANELO CLOSES AS THE FAVORITE: 19/1
With the odds swinging steadily to Canelo, you can be sure that there are at least a handful of sharps just waiting to pounce on GGG when they think the line has gone as far as it’s going to go in the other direction. It’s hard to say what number they’ll be looking for, exactly, but they’ll make their move before GGG becomes an outright underdog, and their money will push the line back in favor of the Kazakh.
ODDS FLOYD MAYWEATHER BETS ON THE FIGHT AND POSTS HIS TICKET ON SOCIAL MEDIA: 2/3
Mayweather has never been known for his subtlety. That was particularly evident back in May when he posted a photo of himself on a private jet holding the $400,000 he won after betting big on his buddy Isaiah Thomas. It wasn’t the first time he used social media to brag about a gambling windfall, and it certainly won’t be the last. Brace yourself for another “Money” shot on Saturday night if Mayweather picks a winner.
PPV/TICKET PROPS
OVER/UNDER MOST EXPENSIVE TICKET PURCHASED ON STUBHUB: $15,750.00
Have $15,000 to spare? StubHub has a deal for you! The online ticket exchange is offering ringside seats for the Canelo/GGG fight for the very low price of $15,750.50. It’s a tremendous deal for anyone who likes their carnage up close and personal.
Gennady Golovkin pounds the stuffing out of Gabriel Rosado. Photo by Shandle Manqoba (Flickr) CC License
SPREAD ON PPV-BUYS BETWEEN CANELO/GOLOVKIN AND MAYWEATHER/MCGREGOR: 3.1 MILLION
Contrary to what you may have heard from Oscar De La Hoya, the Canelo/GGG fight won’t come close to generating the 4.6 million PPV buys that Mayweather/McGregor produced in late August. That’s not a knock on Canelo or Golovkin; it’s just a reality. Both fighters have considerably smaller fan bases than their light-middleweight peers, and have participated in fewer promotional events leading up to their match. At this stage, 1.5 million PPV buys is a reasonable projection and should help to pad the bank accounts of everyone involved.
ODDS ATTENDANCE IS GREATER THAN MAYWEATHER/MCGREGOR (14,623): 1/2
It’s no secret that attendance for the Mayweather/McGregor fight fell far short of expectations. The interest was there, but many fans were scared away by exorbitant ticket prices and opted to pool their money together for a viewing party rather then heading down to T-Mobile Arena. That shouldn’t be a problem for the Canelo/Golovkin fight on Saturday night. Tickets can be found online at StubHub for as little as $520. It’s still an expensive night out, but it pales in comparison to the $4,188.26 average that fans shelled out to watch Mayweather dance around McGregor. Expect a smaller box-office payout and a much bigger crowd this time around.
ODDS FIGHT IS DELAYED BECAUSE OF TECHNICAL ISSUES WITH STREAMING OR PPV: 15/1
Anyone who expected the Mayweather/McGregor fight to happen at its originally scheduled time was sadly disappointed when the marquee event was delayed due to scattered outages from cable and satellite providers across the U.S. The same thing happened in 2015 for the heavily hyped fight between Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. In both cases, the culprit was high demand. With all due respect to Canelo and GGG, their fight isn’t likely to crash any servers. They’re exceptional boxers in their own right, but they lack the global popularity and crossover appeal to win over causal observers.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
