Canelo vs Scull Prediction: Final Odds & Best Bets for Saturday Night Fight

• Canelo Alvarez returns to the ring tonight in Saudi Arabia as a massive -3000 favorite against undefeated William Scull (+1200)
• The undisputed super middleweight championship is on the line with all four major belts up for grabs
• Read below for my final prediction, best bets, and why I’m backing Canelo to win by decision

Just hours away from tonight’s super middleweight championship clash in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, I’ve analyzed all the angles and settled on my final prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull. After a wild Friday night that saw Rolly Romero shock the world with his upset of Ryan Garcia, I’m looking at whether another underdog can make magic happen this weekend.

The short answer? Don’t count on it.

Why Canelo Wins Tonight

Canelo Alvarez enters tonight’s bout as a massive -3000 favorite for good reason. The Mexican superstar has never lost at 168 pounds and brings vastly superior experience to the ring against the relatively untested Scull.

While Scull holds the IBF title that was stripped from Canelo (who never actually lost it in the ring), there’s an enormous gulf in quality of opposition between these two fighters. Scull’s most notable win came against Vladimir Shishkin in a fight many observers thought he lost, landing just 22.3 percent of his punches in that contest.

The Cuban challenger will have a four-inch height advantage and three-inch reach edge, but he lacks the tools to effectively use this size difference. Unlike Dmitry Bivol, who was the last one to beat Canelo, Scull just doesn’t have the mix of skills, strength, and defense to really give the champ a hard time.

Latest Canelo vs Scull Odds

Odds as of May 3, 2025 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on this fight with the BetMGM promo code. Odds subject to change.

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The Decision Prediction

The boxing betting odds tell an interesting story about how this fight might unfold. While Canelo is the overwhelming favorite to win, the method of victory odds suggest there’s debate about how he’ll do it.

I’m going against the grain here and predicting Canelo wins by decision, and here’s why:

First, Canelo hasn’t scored a knockout since 2021 against Caleb Plant. Since then, he’s gone the distance with Golovkin, Ryder, Charlo, Munguia, and Berlanga – all fighters who presented more danger than Scull.

Second, Canelo has shown a pattern in recent fights of being content to win rounds clearly without taking unnecessary risks. At this stage of his career, with the lucrative Crawford fight already lined up for September, there’s little incentive for him to push aggressively for a stoppage.

Third, Scull’s defensive movement should allow him to survive, even if he can’t win rounds. He’s not a stationary target, and while he doesn’t have much power (just nine KOs in twenty-three wins), his mobility could help him avoid the kind of sustained punishment that leads to stoppages.

Best Canelo Bets For Tonight

If you’re looking to place a wager on tonight’s action, here are my recommended plays:

Best Value Play: Canelo by Decision (+160 at MGM)
This offers much better value than the straight moneyline at -3000, and aligns with Canelo’s recent pattern of going the distance.

Prop Worth Considering: Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (+166)
This correlates with my prediction and offers slightly better odds than the decision prop.

Round Prop: Scull to Be Knocked Down in Rounds one through six (+175)
Even if Canelo doesn’t get the finish, he’s likely to score at least one knockdown against Scull, who tends to keep his head on the center line.

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Final Canelo vs Skull Prediction

I expect Canelo to control this fight from start to finish, using his superior ring generalship to cut off the ring and land the cleaner, more effective punches. Scull will have moments where his movement creates problems, especially early, but Canelo’s body work and pressure will gradually wear him down.

The Cuban challenger will survive the full twelve rounds, but won’t win more than a round or two on my scorecard. Look for Canelo to cruise to a unanimous decision victory (likely 118-110 or 119-109) that sets up the massive showdown with Terence Crawford in September.

• Final Prediction: Canelo Alvarez by Unanimous Decision (+225)
• Best Bet: Canelo by Decision (+160)

The Canelo vs Scull main card begins at 7:00 PM ET on DAZN pay-per-view, with ring walks for the main event expected around 11:00 PM ET. After yesterday’s shocking upset in Times Square, tonight’s action from Saudi Arabia should deliver another memorable night of boxing.