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Eleider Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev 2 Odds and Predictions

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in Boxing

Feb 1, 2019 · 11:27 AM PST

Sergey Kovalev fighting Eleider Alvarez
Sergey Kovalev will look to avenge his loss to Eleider Alvarez and retain his title. Photo from @Sporterx3.
  • Eleider Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev 2 takes place February 2nd at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas
  • Alvarez won the first fight with a thrilling KO victory in Round 7
  • Kovalev looks to rebound in what could be his last fight in the event that he loses

This weekend Sergey Kovalev and Eleider Alvarez meet for the second time, a re-match of their entertaining bout in August.

The first installment of this rivalry was awesome. Alvarez took control early, and then Kovalev took the momentum before Alvarez went on to produce one of the best offensive boxing rounds in recent memory.

In many instances in boxing, if you’ve seen it once you’re going to see it again. The odds seem to suggest that being the likely outcome in the rematch, but I’m here to lay out why the smart money is on Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev.

Sergey Kovalev vs Eleider Alvarez 2 Odds

Fighter Money Line Total Rounds
Sergey Kovalev +141 O 9.5 +108
Eleider Alvarez -161 U 9.5 -128

Here’s a quick tale of the tape to get you caught up to speed on the two fighters who will square off for the WBO Light Heavyweight title.

Sergey Kovalev vs Eleider Alvarez Tale of the Tape

Sergey Kovalev
Eleider Alvarez
32-3-1 (28 KO) Record 24-0-0 (12 KO)
35 Age 34
6’0″ Height 6’0″
72.5″ Reach 75.5″
Orthodox Stance Orthodox

KO Likely in Kovalev-Alvarez 2?

When looking at the entire odds table, some interesting things stand out.

Alvarez vs Kovalev 2 Method of Victory Odds

What Will Be the Method of Victory in Alvarez vs Kovalev 2? Odds
Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision +300
Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ +150
Kovalev by Decision or Technical Decision +400
Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +250
Draw +1600

First off, both fighters have better odds to win by KO, TKO or DQ than they do by decision.  This is not a fight that is expected to go the distance. That’s important when you take a look at Eleider Alvarez’s history in the ring. Did he knockout Kovalev in the first fight? Yes, but it certainly seems like an outlier performance. He had only three KO’s to his record in the previous five years and owns only 12 total in 24 professional fights.

Kovalev, on the other hand, knocked out the two opponents he faced before Alvarez and owns 28 KO in 36 professional fights. If the lines suggest knockout, it’s much more likely “Krusher” lives up to this nickname than Alvarez to repeat his performance from the first bout.

Rounds O/U Suggests Kovalev-Alvarez 2 Will End in KO

It isn’t just the individual betting odds that showcase a KO as the likely outcome, the pay outs set on the rounds O/U says it as well.

Alvarez vs Kovalev 2 Over/Under Odds

How Long Will Alvarez vs Kovalev 2 Last? Odds
Over 9.5 Rounds +108
Under 9.5 Rounds -128

Oddsmakers don’t only expect a KO, they expect it to come earlier than the 10th round. Using the same logic as before, if it’s a KO coming, lean towards Kovalev. This is a championship fighter who took Andre Ward to the brink not long ago, don’t expect him to get caught by Alvarez again.

Kovalev-Alvarez 2 Final Verdict

Kovalev was the heavy favorite in the first fight, entering the ring at -600. The final verdict was one to forget, but he had success throughout the first half of the fight before getting caught in Round 7.

Kovalev was the heavy favorite in the first fight, entering the ring at -600.

It’s rare you get to bet on a fighter of Kovalev’s pedigree at the price he’s currently paying. He enters the ring paying +141, with Alvarez going off at -161. One bad round doesn’t justify the massive swing in odds from fight 1 to fight 2. This isn’t the case where a new young fighter is taking the reins – there’s only one year separating the two fighters – so expect the skill of Kovalev to win out.

Pick: Sergey Kovalev win by KO, TKO, or DQ (+250)

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