Final Paul vs Chavez Jr. Prediction: Expert Pick and Best Bets Tonight

• Jake Paul faces Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. tonight at the Honda Center in a 10-round cruiserweight bout
• Our final Paul vs Chavez Jr. prediction targets a late stoppage with Paul winning by KO/TKO
• Read below for expert analysis, best bets, and complete odds breakdown from bet365

Fight night has arrived, and my conviction on Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has only grown stronger. After analyzing every angle of this cruiserweight clash, the path to victory seems crystal clear.

Let me share my final Paul vs Chevaz Jr. prediction and the bets I’m making for tonight’s DAZN pay-per-view main event.

Paul vs Chavez Jr. Fight Analysis

Everything about this matchup screams mismatch. We’re talking about a 28-year-old athlete in his physical prime against a 39-year-old who’s fought once in three years. But it goes deeper than just age.

Chavez Jr. looks bloated at cruiserweight, fighting 40 pounds above his middleweight prime. This isn’t muscle mass we’re seeing. It’s the result of years away from serious training. His recent footage shows a fighter who’s lost timing, reflexes, and most importantly, desire.

Paul, for all the criticism he receives, treats boxing like a full-time job. He’s constantly in the gym, sparring quality opponents, and improving with each camp. That dedication shows in the ring. His 64% knockout rate isn’t a fluke. The kid can crack.

The most damning evidence? Chávez Jr.’s pattern of quitting when things get tough. He quit against Daniel Jacobs. He gave a lifeless effort against Canelo. Once Paul starts landing clean shots and Chávez Jr. feels that cruiserweight power, history suggests he’ll look for a way out.

Final Paul vs Chavez Jr. Prediction

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I’m calling for Jake Paul to win by TKO between rounds 7 and 9.

This isn’t about disrespecting Chávez Jr.’s legacy. At his peak, he was a legitimate world champion. But that was over a decade ago. Tonight, we’re watching a faded fighter who’s admitted he doesn’t take boxing seriously anymore.

Paul might not be a traditional boxer, but he’s young, strong, and hungry. Most importantly, he wants this more. When that bell rings, desire often trumps technique.

Here’s how I see it playing out: Chávez Jr. will use his experience early, making Paul work and possibly winning a round or two. But as we hit the middle rounds, the younger man’s conditioning will take over. Paul’s jab will find its home repeatedly. The body shots will accumulate.

By round 7, Chávez Jr. will be in survival mode. That’s when Paul turns up the heat. Whether it’s the referee stepping in, the corner throwing in the towel, or Chávez Jr. simply not answering the bell, this fight ends before the final round.

The Problem Child gets it done inside the distance. Bank on it. The betting line of 8.5 rounds tells me the oddsmakers see it similarly. Take the under.

Paul vs Chavez Jr. Best Bets Tonight

Forget the -750 moneyline on Paul. That’s burning money for minimal return. Here’s where the real value lies:

Primary Bet: Paul by KO/TKO/DQ (+140 at Bet365)
This is the sweet spot. You’re getting plus money on what I consider the most likely outcome. Paul has stopped 7 of his 11 opponents, and Chávez Jr. presents the perfect target – slow, undermotivated, and carrying extra weight.

Value Play: Paul to Win in Rounds 7-8 (+750 at Bet365)
If you want to get specific, this is where I’d sprinkle some money. The odds jump nicely here, and it aligns perfectly with when Chávez Jr. typically breaks down. A $50 bet returns $375 if Paul gets it done in these championship rounds.

Prop Bet: Over 0.5 Knockdowns (-155 at MGM)
This line shoud be closer to -200. Even if Chávez Jr. survives, Paul’s power should floor him at least once. The former champ’s legs aren’t what they used to be, especially carrying that extra weight.

Latest Paul vs Chavez Jr. Odds

Odds as of June 28, 2025, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on Paul vs Chavez Jr. tonight. If Bet365 isn’t legal in your state, check out our BetMGM Review instead.

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More Paul vs Chavez Jr. Coverage:

Updated Odds, Public Money Splits & Where to Bet the Fight

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