Garcia vs Barrios Prediction, Odds, Date & Tale of the Tape

• Ryan Garcia is a -225 favorite to beat Mario Barrios on Saturday, February 21
• Garcia is coming off a decision loss to Rolando Romero in his return from suspension
• See below for my Garcia vs Barrios prediction, early odds and how to watch this fight

Ryan Garcia (24-2) gets a shot at the WBC welterweight title when he faces Mario Barrios (29-2-1) on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Garcia needs a win after dropping a clear decision to Rolando Romero, and sportsbooks have him as a solid favorite. I’m betting Garcia wins this fight, but not by knockout.

The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena on DAZN Pay-Per-View. I’ve made my Garcia vs Barrios prediction below, plus broken down the early odds and how to watch.

Garcia vs Barrios Prediction

• Ryan Garcia to win by Decision (+240 at BetMGM)

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Most people will bet on Garcia by knockout, but I think that’s the wrong play. Barrios is tough to stop, and Garcia looked gun-shy in his last fight. The value here should be on Garcia winning by decision at +240.

Barrios has only been stopped once in his career. He went 12 rounds with Keith Thurman and Manny Pacquiao, and survived heavy shots against Abel Ramos. This guy can take a punch.

Garcia has the speed advantage, no question. His left hook is dangerous, and he should be able to land it against Barrios’ tall, upright stance. But Garcia has struggled to break down compact guards recently. He looked tentative against Romero and hesitant at times against Oscar Duarte before finding the hook.

Barrios fights behind a disciplined jab and uses a high guard. He’s not going to give Garcia easy opportunities to land clean, and that means this fight should go rounds.

Garcia has something to prove here after the Romero loss, and this is his first real shot at a welterweight title. I expect him to box responsibly rather than chase a reckless knockout.

The books have Garcia by KO/TKO at +138, which implies about a 42% chance. Garcia by decision sits at +240, implying just 29%. If Garcia wins roughly 7 out of 10 times and even a few of those come by decision, that +240 number is mispriced.

I see Garcia outpointing Barrios over 12 rounds. His speed should be the difference, but Barrios will be there at the final bell. Expect wide scorecards in the 118-110 range.

Garcia vs Barrios Odds

Garcia is a -225 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, meaning you’d need to bet $225 to win $100. Barrios is coming back at +170 as the underdog.

Those -225 odds give Garcia about a 69% implied probability to win. The books are giving Barrios roughly a 37% chance to pull the upset or fight to a draw.

The fight going the full 12 rounds is priced at -118. That’s essentially a coin flip in the eyes of oddsmakers. Given Barrios’ durability and Garcia’s recent cautious approach, I lean toward this going the distance.

Odds at BetMGM. Get the BetMGM bonus code to use on the Garcia vs Barrios fight.

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Garcia vs Barrios Tale of the Tape

Barrios has the size advantage here. He’s two inches taller with a two-inch reach edge. Garcia will need to close distance to land his best shots.

Ryan Garcia vs Mario Barrios

Garcia has the higher knockout percentage at 83% compared to Barrios at 62%, but his recent fights haven’t shown that same finishing ability. He’s been more hesitant since coming back from his suspension.

Barrios has faced better competition at welterweight, having been in there with Thurman, Pacquiao, Ugas and Ramos. Garcia is stepping up in weight class and facing a true 147-pounder for the first time.

Garcia vs Barrios Date & How to Watch

The Garcia vs Barrios fight date is Saturday, February 21 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 5:45 pm ET on DAZN, with the pay-per-view portion beginning at 7:55 pm ET. Ring walks for Garcia and Barrios are expected around 11:53 pm ET after the undercard.

The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. DAZN is charging $69.99 for the pay-per-view. The undercard features Richardson Hitchins vs Oscar Duarte and Gary Antuanne Russell vs Andy Hiraoka, both world title fights.