Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Preview, Prediction, Odds & Fight Date

• Anthony Joshua is a -1200 favorite over Jake Paul in Friday’s Heavyweight Bout
• Paul is stepping up from Cruiserweight to take this fight
• See my Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua preview and predictions below, plus the odds and fight date

High-profile boxing returns to Netflix this weekend, as Jake Paul challenges Anthony Joshua. This is by far the biggest test for the YouTuber-turned-professional Boxer Paul, who is giving up a ton of size and experience to the multiple-time heavyweight champion.

Online sportsbooks are not expecting this bout to be competitive, or to last long. Joshua is a massive -1200 favorite, while the total rounds over/under sits at just 2.5.

Here is my Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua preview and predictions, as well as the latest odds and the fight date.

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Preview

It’s hard to draw up a bigger mismatch. Joshua will enter the ring standing 6-foot-6 and weighing in at 245 pounds. Paul meanwhile, stands at a generous 6-foot-1 and has never fought above 227 pounds.

The 28-year-old has spent the bulk of his boxing career fighting at the cruiserweight level, topping out at 200 pounds. Paul is also giving up a six-inch reach advantage to AJ, as well as a wealth of fighting experience.

Tale of the Tape

Before Paul had ever stepped onto the professional boxing scene, Joshua had already racked up eight titles and an Olympic gold medal. Joshua hasn’t fought since the fall of 2024, taking a much-needed hiatus after suffering a knockout defeat to Daniel Dubois.

He had been planning to return last month in Saudi Arabia, before the chance to fight Paul popped up. If you’re wondering if Joshua is taking his opponent lightly, think again. AJ has been training out of Spain with Oleksandr Usyk’s team, the current World No. 1 heavyweight.

In Joshua’s mind, losing to Paul is out of the question, but if it were to happe,n it would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history. For perspective, pundits believe a Paul upset of Joshua would be an even greater shock than the Buster Douglas KO of Mike Tyson.

Paul vs Joshua Predictions

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)

That’s because Paul doesn’t rank among the top-15 heavyweights in any of the four governing bodies. He’s prayed on fighters that are years past their prime (like Mike Tyson and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.), or who aren’t full-time boxers (like Nate Diaz, Mike Perry and Anderson Silva). The few professionals he has faced have not posed a threat, and he’s never been at such a size and experience disadvantage.

This won’t be Joshua’s first fight against a boxing novice. Last year he squared off against former UFC heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou, who has 3 inches and 50+ pounds on Paul, and AJ stopped him in the second round with a devastating knockout.

I see this fight playing out similarly, but I do expect Paul to last more than two rounds. Given the amount of money Netflix is paying these two, I wouldn’t be surprised if Joshua played with his food for the first few rounds before turning it on.

He’s promised us this fight won’t go the distance, and I don’t see a scenario where he suffers another knockout to an overmatched opponent like he did versus Andy Ruiz back in 2019. Ruiz was no novice, and had previous championship fight experience. Paul cannot make the same claim, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets KO’d for the first time.

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Odds

The best place to bet Over 2.5 rounds is at DraftKings, who are offering the line at -115 odds. If you’re wondering why I didn’t include a knockout prop, it’s because the odds are way too short. AJ is -400 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, and most books won’t let you parlay that with Over 2.5 rounds.

Odds as of December 15th at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings promo code for a bonus to bet on the Paul vs Joshua fight.

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Paul vs Joshua Fight Date

The Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua fight is scheduled for Friday, December 19, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL, and will be sanctioned by the Florida Athletic Commission.

The heavyweight bout will headline the main card that streams live on Netflix starting at 8 pm ET, with Paul and Joshua expected to enter the ring at roughly 11 pm ET.