- Money is coming in on the Jake Paul vs Anderson Silva fight on Saturday
- The betting public is heavily backing the favorite in Paul vs Silva
- See the full betting splits for Paul vs Silva in the story below
Money is pouring in on the big Jake Paul vs Anderson Silva boxing fight Saturday evening in Arizona. Both the betting public and sharp bettors are placing wagers on this high-profile boxing clash.
Jake Paul is the betting favorite in the latest Paul vs Silva odds, and “The Problem Child” is seeing most of the public money as of Saturday evening. Is there any chance of Silva pulling the upset?
Let’s take a closer look at the Paul vs Silva boxing splits and analyze why money is coming in on Jake Paul.
Jake Paul vs Anderson Silva Betting Trends
|Fighter||Odds at DraftKings||% of Total Money||% of Total Bets|
All data as of October 29 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Make sure to check out the Paul vs Silva promos before betting the fight.
Paul’s -245 price in the odds means he has 71% implied probability to win the fight.
Jake Paul Receiving Majority of Money
YouTube star Jake Paul is being heavily backed by the betting public in his fight with Anderson Silva. Data from DraftKings Sportsbook shows that ‘the Problem Child’ is receiving 62% of bets and 82% of the betting handle for the fight.
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) October 29, 2022
It’s easy to tell that heavy money has come in on Jake Paul. Paul was only a -135 favorite to defeat Silva earlier in the week, and now the line has shortened to -245. Sharp bettors (professionals) are likely responsible for this odds shift.
Silva is seeing 38% of the bets but only 20% of the money. This tells us that a decent amount of bets are being placed on the MMA legend, but the money wagered isn’t substantial.
Why the Public is Backing Jake Paul
There have been assumptions that one or more of Jake Paul’s fights have been rigged, with his opponent potentially throwing the fight in order to cash a large paycheque. We don’t believe that to be the primary driver for the money this time around.
A big reason money is coming in on Jake Paul is due to comments made by Silva in an interview earlier this week. Silva said in the interview he was knocked out twice during his training camp, raising regulatory red flags.
Anderson Silva has said that he’s been knocked out twice before his fight against Jake Paul…Think we know how this is gonna go…
— ksi (@KSI) October 26, 2022
Silva had to take extra medical exams and get medically cleared by the Arizona Boxing & MMA Commission just days before the fight. There was serious concern the Paul vs Silva fight could get canceled.
Silva later clarified that he misspoke and was never actually knocked out during sparring. Whether or not Silva’s original comments have any merit to them, the betting public is hesitant to lay significant money on the UFC legend.
Paul is also 20 years younger than Silva, and he likely wouldn’t have chosen Silva as an opponent if he thought he could get beat down. Paul has held an advantage over every opponent so far, which is something the betting public recognizes.
Does Silva Hold Underdog Value?
There’s a popular term in betting called “fading the public”. This is where you bet the opposite of what the public is betting and place a contrarian wager. The betting public is proven to be long-term losers (aka “the House always wins”).
The betting public does win from time to time, though, and in this scenario, the sharp bettors appear to be on the same side as the public. Silva has a stellar UFC record, but he’s only had four professional boxing fights, where he’s gone 3-1.
Silva has also only fought twice since 2021, whereas Paul has been preparing for a fight for a long time. The YouTube sensation had fights against Tommy Furry and Hasim Rahman Jr. called off over the past year for various reasons.
Paul is 5-0 as a boxer, including four knockouts. He also won his amateur bought against KSI’s brother Deji in 2018. Paul takes his boxing very seriously, and with a net worth of $30 million, he has the money to pay for all the best training.
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) October 26, 2022
Paul is proven in the boxing ring, especially with two fights against Tyron Woodley. Paul won an eight-round split decision against Woodley in August 2021 before knocking out the former UFC Welterweight in the December rematch.
Silva at +190 is an intriguing bet, but Vegas knows something with how they’ve set the line. Tread lightly if you’re thinking of betting against Jake Paul; this could be a case of a betting line appearing too good to be true.