Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua: Expert Prediction, Latest Odds & Tale of the Tape for Friday’s Netflix Fight

• Jake Paul is a massive betting underdog against Anthony Joshua tonight
• The over/under sits at just 2.5 rounds with juice on the Over
• Read below for my expert Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua prediction, latest odds and tale of the tape

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Jake Paul has talked himself into some wild fights, but nothing comes close to this. Tonight, he steps into the ring against Anthony Joshua, a former two-time heavyweight champion who has knocked out 25 of his 28 wins.

The Paul vs Joshua fight goes down at Miami’s Kaseya Center, streaming live on Netflix. Books have AJ as a -1100 to -1200 favorite, and most expect this to end early. The question isn’t really if Joshua wins, but how long Paul can survive.

Here’s my Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua prediction, featuring the very latest Paul vs Joshua odds and tale of the tape breakdown.

Jump to: Prediction | Latest Odds | Tale of the Tape | Joshua Analysis | Paul Analysis

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Prediction

• Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-145 at DraftKings)

My Paul vs Joshua expert prediction comes down to one thing: Joshua has every reason to make a statement here. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois and hasn’t fought in 15 months. A potential superfight with Tyson Fury is on the horizon. You think AJ wants to give Fury ammunition by going the distance with a YouTuber?

But I’m not touching Joshua by KO at -350. The value isn’t there. And given how these Netflix spectacles tend to play out, I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s some sort of clause preventing an early knockout. Whether that’s protecting the broadcast or protecting Paul, who knows. But the fact that we’re even having this conversation tells you something about the state of these fights.

JAKE PAUL vs. ANTHONY JOSHUA
LIVE only on Netflix
TOMORROW, December 19
8 PM ET | 5 PM PT#JakeJoshua pic.twitter.com/FnnI8y0Rab

— Netflix (@netflix) December 19, 2025

Paul’s entire approach will be survival. Expect movement, clinching, and anything else he can do to slow the pace. Joshua is not reckless by nature. His last three wins came in rounds 2, 5, and 7. Against Otto Wallin, he patiently worked behind the jab and broke him down before the stoppage in round 5.

I see this playing out similarly to those recent fights. Paul probably survives the early rounds by staying mobile and tying up. Joshua figures out the timing, lands something clean in the middle rounds, and that’s when it gets ugly.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, AJ to win in rounds 5-8 at +500 on FanDuel is worth a look. Two of his last three wins happened during that window.

• Final Prediction: Joshua by Knockout, Round 5

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Odds

The Paul vs Joshua odds have ticked slightly toward Paul as fight week arrived. Earlier numbers sat around Paul +700 / Joshua -1250. The story hasn’t changed, though. Joshua is the proven heavyweight. Paul is hoping for a lucky shot before Joshua gets going.

Based on the current moneyline, Joshua’s implied probability sits around 92% to win. Paul lands somewhere in the 11-14% range, depending on the book. Those numbers feel about right for how this should play out on paper.

The Over 2.5 rounds is juiced to -145, while the Under sits at +115. Books expect Joshua to get the knockout, but not immediately. His KO/TKO line at -350 implies roughly a 78% chance of a stoppage win.

Odds as of December 19, 2025 at boxing betting apps.

A draw is offered at +2200 on BetMGM, which works out to about a 4% implied probability. Long shot territory, but stranger things have happened in Jake Paul fights.

The -600 line on Paul getting knocked down tells you what books think happens here. That implies an 86% chance Paul hits the canvas at some point.

If you’re wondering why I didn’t include a knockout prop in my pick, it’s because the value isn’t there. AJ is -350 to win by KO/TKO, and most books won’t let you parlay that with Over 2.5 rounds anyway.

Looking for more betting options? Check out our Paul vs Joshua prop bets.

Paul vs Joshua Tale of the Tape

The Paul vs Joshua tale of the tape shows just how lopsided this matchup is. AJ has 5 inches in height on Paul and 6 inches in reach. He came in nearly 27 pounds heavier at the weigh-in. Paul has never shared the ring with anyone this big.

Anthony Joshua Analysis

Joshua enters with 28 wins, 25 by knockout. He is a former two-time unified heavyweight champion and an Olympic gold medalist. This is not a faded legend cashing a check. AJ remains a top-10 heavyweight and challenged for the IBF title in his last bout.

Yes, he was stopped by Dubois. But Dubois is one of the hardest punchers in the division, and Joshua showed toughness getting up before the stoppage. His other losses came against Oleksandr Usyk (twice) and Andy Ruiz, all legitimate elite opponents.

If you’re wondering whether Joshua is taking this fight lightly, think again. AJ has been training in Spain with Usyk’s team, the current undisputed heavyweight champion.

What do you think of Anthony Joshua under Team Usyk?🇺🇦#JakeJoshua pic.twitter.com/mWEF1goHB0

— BoxingScene.com (@boxingscene) December 17, 2025

Joshua has dealt with crossover opponents before. When Francis Ngannou tried to make the jump from UFC, AJ put him away in under two rounds. Ngannou was bigger than Paul by a decent margin. That fight didn’t go well for the MMA guy, and this one probably won’t either.

Former pro Lawrence Okolie, who trained alongside AJ in the GB Amateur system, calls him a “freak of nature” athletically. Back in those days, AJ could do track work and agility drills as well as the lightweights, if not better.

Jake Paul Analysis

Paul’s record stands at 12-1 with 7 knockouts. His only loss came via split decision to Tommy Fury, a part-time Love Island star. That’s the only real data we have on Paul against actual boxing competition.

Look at his resume. He’s beaten retired UFC fighters (Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz, Tyron Woodley, Ben Askren), a bare-knuckle fighter (Mike Perry), a 58-year-old Mike Tyson, and a 39-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. The professionals he’s faced have either been past their prime or weren’t boxers to begin with.

In his last fight against Chavez Jr., Paul showed cracks and limitations. Chavez was battling addiction and is naturally much smaller, yet still gave Paul issues late in the fight. Now, Paul steps up to face a world-level heavyweight.

Okolie pointed out a flaw in Paul’s style: he falls forward over his front foot when attacking. Against lower-level opponents, he gets away with it. Against AJ, that mistake gets your head uppercutted clean off.

Body language experts who analyzed the public workouts noted Paul showed signs of nerves and anxiety. He fidgeted with his cap, swayed side to side, and bounced on his feet. Joshua, meanwhile, looked locked in with precise movements.

Paul’s weigh-in at 216.6 pounds puts him at a serious disadvantage. He’s never fought above 227 pounds professionally, and that was against a 58-year-old.

If Paul somehow wins, it would be the biggest upset in boxing history. Bigger than Douglas-Tyson.

Final Verdict

By the end of the night, we’ll know if reality finally caught up with Jake Paul. Joshua has everything riding on this. A dominant win pushes him toward the Fury superfight, and anything less gives critics all the ammunition they need.

For Paul, this is about proving he belongs. He called this the biggest upset in sports history if he wins. In boxing? He might be right. But the guy who couldn’t land clean on Tommy Fury is about to share the ring with someone who was fighting for world titles 15 months ago. Good luck with that.