Latest Paul vs Chavez Jr. Odds + Best Early Bet to Make

• Jake Paul sits at -700 over +400 underdog Julio César Chávez Jr. with fight night approaching

• Paul opened as a massive -1100 favorite before dropping to -700, creating better value for bettors

• Our updated best bet targets a late-round Paul stoppage between rounds 7-9

The Jake Paul vs Julio César Chávez Jr. betting market has moved in an interesting direction. Paul opened as a massive -1100 favorite before the line came down to -700 at BetMGM, right where it sat when I first previewed this fight in May.

That significant drop from -1100 to -700 shows the market correcting itself after initially overvaluing Paul. The current line still gives him about an 87.5% chance of winning on June 28 at the Honda Center.

Current Paul vs Chavez Jr. Odds

DraftKings has Paul at -750 while bet365 matches that price. When books agree this closely, the market has found its comfort zone. The 3-way market includes a draw at +1600, which slightly improves both fighters’ odds.

Odds as of June 18, 2025. Check out the top US betting sites for Paul vs Chavez Jr.

Skip the Moneyline, Target the Stoppage

Laying -700 means risking $70 to win $10. That’s not worth it when better options exist.

Paul by KO/TKO pays around +140 at most books. That’s $140 profit on a $100 bet compared to just $14 on the moneyline. Paul has 7 knockouts in 11 wins and should find openings against an aging Chávez Jr.

Paul by decision runs +200 to +250, decent value if you think Chávez Jr.’s experience helps him survive. The former champ has only been stopped twice in 61 pro fights.

Best Bet: Paul KO/TKO Rounds 7-9

I’m sticking with my May prediction of a late Paul stoppage, and here’s why it makes even more sense now.

Chávez Jr. has looked sluggish in recent training footage, missing shots he would have landed five years ago. His timing appears off, and that’s against sparring partners, not someone trying to take his head off.

The cruiserweight limit helps Paul here. He’s naturally bigger and won’t drain himself making weight. Chávez Jr. spent his prime years at middleweight and super middleweight. Carrying extra weight for 10 rounds takes its toll on a 39-year-old body.

Paul has also shown more patience lately. Against Tyson, he didn’t hunt for early knockouts. He measured distance, picked his spots, and increased his output as rounds progressed. That approach works perfectly against Chávez Jr., who tends to fade down the stretch.

Books offer Paul to win in rounds 7-9 at roughly +800 to +1000. A $50 bet returns $400-500 if Paul stops him in those championship rounds. Much better than laying huge chalk on the moneyline.

Other Betting Angles to Consider

Over 7.5 Rounds (-140): A safer play that wins whether Paul stops him late or goes the distance.

Paul by Decision (+200): Worth a look if you believe Chávez Jr.’s pride keeps him upright while losing rounds.

Chávez Jr. (+400): He promised to retire without pay if he loses. Maybe that desperation sparks something, though I wouldn’t bet on it.

Final Word on Paul vs Chavez Jr.

Paul controls this fight with youth, size, and activity. But Chávez Jr.’s experience means it won’t end quickly. Once fatigue sets in around round 7, Paul turns up the heat.

Skip the -700 moneyline. Target Paul by KO/TKO in rounds 7-9 for real value. The former world champ knows how to survive early, but Father Time always collects his debts in those late rounds.

Saturday night at the Honda Center, we’ll see if this late-round stoppage materializes. The odds certainly support it.