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Mayweather vs McGregor: Fight Odds, Side Props, and Celebs

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Boxing

Jun 19, 2017 · 5:55 AM PDT

Mayweather gives peace sign
By Bryan Horowitz[CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Flickr

Here. We. Go!

The two biggest names in combat sports have finally agreed to their long-discussed mega-fight. Say what you will about the quality of the match-up, this is going to be one of the biggest sporting events of all time, regardless.

Mark it on your calendar: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor, August 26th.

The fight is pure boxing, no compromises: 12 rounds, 10-ounce gloves, 154 pound weight limit. Conor McGregor is stepping directly into Mayweather’s domain.

 

 

Let’s take a detailed look at the odds! Not the odds for the fight, itself. You can find those anywhere. This is the Super Bowl of combat sports, so — just like the Super Bowl — we need some side props. Actually, given the ludicrous revenue and viewership this fight is going to generate, the Super Bowl is now the Mayweather/McGregor of football.


FIGHT ODDS

Odds the fight does not take place on August 26th: 9/1

The paperwork has been signed and the terms have been settled, but there are still a few things that could go wrong. Mayweather is known to have brittle hands and McGregor will be venturing into uncharted waters during his training. An injury for either fighter is a real possibility. Then there’s the issue of making weight, but at a catchweight of 154 pounds, neither fighter should have much trouble making the cut.

Mayweather on the scale
Photo: public domain

Over/under on percentage of punches landed by McGregor: 13.5%

How elusive is Floyd Mayweather? Manny Pacquiao threw a total of 429 punches against Mayweather, but only managed to connect on 81. That left Pacman with a dismal percentage of 19%.

McGregor isn’t nearly as fast as Pacquiao and throws far fewer punches. Instead of rapid flurries, Notorious prefers to throw just a few accurate left hands. He’s an amazing striker by MMA standards, but against Mayweather, he’ll be lucky to land a single significant strike.

Over/under on percentage of punches landed by Mayweather: 65.5%

Prepare for a technical masterclass by Mayweather. He’s never been a power puncher, but he’s precise as all hell. Not even the most strident McGregor fan believes he can outbox Mayweather.

Over/under on points deducted from McGregor by referee : 0.5

A little bit of foul play may be needed in order for McGregor to level the playing field. Perhaps some roughing up in the clinch or the odd headbutt here and there. McGregor has an enormous size advantage, so there are a few things he could do to derail Mayweather.

Odds Mayweather wins every round on all three scorecards: 1/4

McGregor is not looking to take Mayweather to decision and win on points. The scorecard is Mayweather’s turf. McGregor knows Mayweather doesn’t pack a lot of power, and he’ll be looking for the knockout blow.

Odds McGregor knocks down Mayweather: 19/1

If McGregor can connect with a big left hand, then a knockdown is very likely. However, that’s a huge “if”. The best fighters in five weight classes couldn’t penetrate Mayweather’s defense, so why should we expect McGregor to have any success?

McGregor vs Aldo
By Andrius Petrucenia (Flickr) [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0]

Odds Mayweather knocks down McGregor: 1/2

Mayweather may not have a lot of power, but he’s got some vicious combinations. McGregor is not accustomed to fighting a full 12 rounds, and as the fight wears on, he’ll get pretty sluggish. It’s in those moments when Mayweather will wreak havoc.

Odds the fight ends in …

  • KO or TKO: 4/9
  • Decision: 4/1
  • DQ: 19/1
  • Technical decision: 19/1

It’s hard to imagine the fight going the full 12 rounds. Either McGregor catches Mayweather in the opening rounds or, far more likely, he’s gassed after round six or seven. Mayweather doesn’t finish many fights by way of knockout, especially now that he’s 40 years old. This should be an exception.

Odds McGregor “accidentally” kicks Mayweather during the fight: 99/1

I’m positive there’s a clause somewhere in the contract preventing McGregor from going rogue in the ring. Still, it would be hilarious to see McGregor take the fight to the ground or throw in a few leg kicks.

PAY-PER-VIEW AND BROADCAST PROPS

Over/under on price of PPV broadcast: $105

Mayweather vs Pacquiao sold for $99.99, raising the ceiling for boxing fans around the world. Before that, Mayweather vs Canelo went for $74.95 a pop. MMA fans are not accustomed to dishing out that much for a single event. The UFC has never charged more than $59.99.

This puts Mayweather Promotions and Dana White in a tricky situation. If they shoot beyond $100, they might drive away some MMA fans. If they set it closer to UFC prices, they’re selling themselves short.

Odds Mayweather vs. McGregor breaks boxing record for PPV buys: 1/4

When it comes to Pay-Per-View buys, Floyd Mayweather is number one. And two. And three.

His 2015 super-fight against Manny Pacquiao pulled in 4.6 million buys, blowing every PPV record out of the water. The next two in the record books are his fights against Oscar De La Hoya (2.4 million) and Canelo Alvarez (2.2 million).

When it comes to the UFC, no one draws a crowd like Conor Mcgregor. Notorious headlined three of the four biggest UFC events in history.

Featuring the two biggest draws in combat sports, this fight could be the first to break five million buys.

Odds Mayweather vs. McGregor breaks boxing record for PPV revenue: 1/3

Mayweather vs Pacquiao generated $410 million. The two boxers generated more in one night than some island nations make in a year. If Mayweather vs McGregor breaks that record, the revenue generated could exceed the GDP of Dominica.

As long as the hype machine keeps running, this fight could steamroll every PPV record imaginable.

Over/under on number of times Rocky Marciano’s perfect record is mentioned during the Showtime broadcast (opening bell to closing bell): 4.5

Mayweather stands level with the great Rocky Marciano at 49-0. McGregor is his chance for the big five-oh. I don’t think the focus will be on that, though. This isn’t a fight fit for passing Marciano. This feels more like a cross-over episode than a season finale.

SIDE PROPS

Over/under on amount of money wagered by Mayweather on himself (per first betting ticket posted on social media): $1 million

It’s no secret that “Money” Mayweather likes to gamble, and his favorite athlete to pick is himself. He placed $750,000 on himself in 2006, and now that he’s a couple hundred million dollars richer, expect Mayweather to raise the stakes even higher.

Photo: So Max O (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en]

Odds Dana White leads weigh-in ceremonies: 7/1

It looks like Mayweather Promotions is taking charge of the event, so they’ll probably manage the weigh-ins. It would be interesting to see White stand between Mayweather and McGregor, though.

Odds a punch is thrown during the weigh-in: 20/1

The event is one of the biggest spectacles in sports history. Expect drama, trash talk, and even the possibility of out-of-ring violence. As always, McGregor will be looking to provoke his opponent. It could all come to a boil at the weigh-ins.

Over/under on number of F-bombs by McGregor at the weigh-in: 4.5

The infamous trash talker speaks freely and openly. That oftentimes includes a flurry of F-bombs. Get your “Parental Advisory” stickers ready.

McGregor at UFC 189
Photo: Andrius Petrucenia [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0]

Over/Under final odds (per Westgate) on McGregor on Aug 26: +650

As the hype train blasts ahead, the “puncher’s chance” argument for McGregor will gain more traction. MMA fans may find the long odds enticing and the line should shift in McGregor’s favor as novice bettors go after a big pay-day. 

CELEBRITY SIGHTING ODDS

Odds the following celebrities are shown during the Showtime broadcast

Bieber at police station
Photo: Public domain

Justin Bieber: 1/3

Not only was he at the event when Mayweather fought Pacquiao, Justin Bieber was part of Mayweather’s entourage. He’ll probably be in the crowd again for this fight. It’s hard not to be on camera when you’re next to the star of the show.

Jay-Z and Beyonce: 1/3

Nothing adds prestige to an event like Jay-Z and Beyonce. Expect the king and queen of pop culture to be overlooking the event from their pop culture throne

Mike Tyson: 1/2

Mayweather may be the biggest money-maker in boxing, but Mike Tyson is still probably the biggest name around the globe. He’s considered an arbiter of the sport, so his judgment will be crucial.

Sylvester Stallone: 1/2

A win for Conor McGregor would be a real-life Rocky Balboa story. No one understands boxing fairy-tales like Sylvester Stallone; expect him to be ringside on August 26th.

Any Golden State Warriors Player: 1/1

What better way to celebrate an NBA Championship than a night in Vegas? Any of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson could be there. Matt Barnes might be on the undercard.

Manny Pacquiao: 4/1

This is the biggest fight since Mayweather vs Pacquiao. The Filipino senator may not be in the ring but he could be ringside, waiting to call out Money for a rematch after he wins. Or challenge McGregor if he … haha I can’t even finish that sentence without laughing. 

Any Kardashian: 3/1

Mayweather vs McGregor will be the place to be on August 26th, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see a Kardashian among the sea of celebrities.

Nate Diaz: 9/1

The last fighter to defeat Conor McGregor believes that Notorious has a real chance against Mayweather. After the fight, Diaz will probably be seeking a trilogy fight.

Ronda Rousey: 19/1

Ronda Rousey has been out of the public eye since her botched UFC return. Maybe we’ll see her ringside, but something tells me she’s not a fan of seeing MMA fighters being outclassed by former boxing champs.

Johnny Manziel: 50/1

Manziel is now more famous for what he’s done off the field than on it. A couple years back, he was seen partying with Bieber and Mayweather. Even if he does appear ringside, is he even worth showing on camera?

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