Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman Odds, Prediction, Props & How to Watch

• Sebastian Fundora is a -375 favorite against Keith Thurman on Saturday, March 28
• This is a WBC super welterweight title fight at MGM Grand in Las Vegas
• See below for the latest Fundora vs Thurman odds, prediction, props and how to watch

Sebastian Fundora (23-1-1) defends his WBC super welterweight title against former unified champion Keith Thurman (31-1) on Saturday night at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Fundora is a heavy favorite, and I think the books have this one right.

I’ve broken down the latest Fundora vs Thurman odds below, plus my prediction, best props and how to watch.

Fundora vs Thurman Odds

Fundora is a -375 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, meaning you’d need to bet $375 to win $100. Thurman is coming back at +250 as the underdog.

Those -375 odds give Fundora about a 79% implied probability to win. The books are giving Thurman roughly a 29% chance to pull off the upset.

Look at the method of victory odds. Fundora by KO/TKO is priced at -120, making a stoppage the most likely outcome. Fundora by decision sits at +260. The books don’t expect this to go 12 rounds.

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Fundora vs Thurman Prediction

• Sebastian Fundora by KO/TKO (-120 at BetMGM)

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Fundora should win this fight, and I don’t think it goes the distance. His size, youth and activity level are too much for Thurman to overcome.

The physical advantages here are ridiculous. Fundora stands 6’5″ with an 80-inch reach. Thurman is 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach. That’s an 11-inch reach difference. Fundora throws punches downward with minimal effort, while Thurman has to work just to get inside.

Thurman’s inactivity is a major concern. He’s had just two fights in the last six years. In 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024, he didn’t fight at all. You can’t shake off that much rust against a young, active champion.

Keith Thurman Fight History (2019-2025)

Tim Bradley made a good point in his breakdown. If Thurman couldn’t beat a 40-year-old Manny Pacquiao at his peak, how is he supposed to handle a young Fundora? That Pacquiao loss was back in 2019, and Thurman has only looked older since.

Fundora has improved since his knockout loss to Brian Mendoza in 2023. He’s working behind his jab more and using his reach instead of trading on the inside. The Tim Tszyu rematch showed a smarter fighter who sat down on his punches from distance.

Thurman’s path to victory is lateral movement and power shots. He needs to make Fundora chase him, catch him with his hands down, and land something clean. But that’s asking a lot from 37-year-old legs over 12 rounds.

I expect Fundora to start slow, figure out Thurman’s timing, then pour it on in the middle rounds. Thurman should be competitive early, but will fade as the fight goes on. I’m predicting Fundora gets the stoppage between rounds 7 and 10.

Fundora vs Thurman Props

The fight to end within 10 rounds at -110 is better value than the -175 on “not going the distance.” It’s basically even money and lines up with how I see this fight playing out.

If you want to get specific, Fundora in rounds 7-9 at +350 is worth a look. The round group betting shows this as the danger zone for Thurman, with the shortest odds for a finish in that window. That matches my prediction of a mid-to-late stoppage.

For a longshot, Fundora to win after being knocked down at +650 is interesting. He’s been hurt before by Mendoza and Lubin, but kept coming. If Thurman lands something clean early, Fundora has shown he can survive and rally.

Props at BetMGM as of March 27.

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Fundora vs Thurman Tale of the Tape

The size difference here is unlike anything you’ll see in boxing. Fundora has a nine-inch height advantage and 11 inches in reach. Thurman will need to close distance constantly just to be in punching range.

Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman

Thurman has the higher knockout percentage at 74% compared to Fundora’s 65%. But Thurman built that record years ago when he was more active. Fundora has been the one stopping opponents lately, including Tim Tszyu in their rematch last July.

Fundora vs Thurman Start Time & How to Watch

Fundora vs Thurman takes place on Saturday, March 28 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 8 pm ET on Prime Video PPV, with ring walks for the main event expected around 10 pm ET.

The PPV costs $75 through Amazon Prime Video. Prelims start at 5:30 pm ET and stream free with a Prime membership. The co-main event features Frank Sanchez vs Richard Torrez Jr in an IBF heavyweight eliminator.