Teofimo Lopez vs. Shakur Stevenson Prediction, Odds, Tale of the Tape & How to Watch

• Shakur Stevenson is a -325 favorite to beat Teofimo Lopez in New York on Saturday
• Stevenson is moving up from 135 to challenge for the WBO super lightweight title
• See below for my Lopez vs Stevenson prediction, odds, tale of the tape and how to watch this fight

One of the biggest fights of the year goes down Saturday night when Teofimo Lopez (22-1) defends his WBO super lightweight title against undefeated Shakur Stevenson (24-0). The challenger is looking to become a four-division world champion, and sportsbooks have him as a clear favorite.

The fight takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, with DAZN Pay-Per-View handling the broadcast starting at 6:05 pm ET. My Saturday boxing prediction centers on Stevenson’s elite ring defense, which should propel him to victory at MSG.

Let’s get further into my Lopez vs Stevenson prediction, the latest boxing odds and how to watch.

Lopez vs Stevenson Prediction

• Shakur Stevenson to win by Decision (-190 at BetMGM)

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Stevenson is the better boxer and should be too much for Lopez to handle. Stevenson (nicknamed “Fearless”) has ridiculous defense, and he controls distance better than anyone I’ve seen. He forces opponents into a patience game they can’t win.

Lopez has one clear path to victory: He needs to bully Stevenson, make it physical, corner him and let his hands go early. If this turns into a technical chess match, Stevenson wins every time.

The problem is Lopez isn’t really that kind of fighter. He’s a natural counter-puncher, not an aggressive fighter. He likes opponents to come to him. Stevenson won’t do that.

Stevenson showed he can take a punch against William Zepeda last July. He stood in there with a heavy hitter and won a clear 12-round decision. That fight proved he’s got more than just slick defense.

Lopez’s best wins came against Lomachenko and Josh Taylor. Both are great fighters, but neither had the defensive skills Stevenson brings. This is a different kind of test.

I expect Stevenson to jab, move and make Lopez miss all night. Teo will get frustrated chasing him around the ring. The judges will reward Stevenson’s clean work over Lopez’s aggression.

I don’t see a knockout happening here. Stevenson has hand issues that limit his punch output. Lopez hasn’t stopped anyone significant since Lomachenko in 2020. I predict this goes all 12 rounds with Stevenson winning on the cards.

Lopez vs Stevenson Odds

Odds at BetMGM. Get the BetMGM bonus code to use on the Lopez vs Stevenson fight.

Stevenson is a -325 moneyline favorite at BetMGM. That means you’d need to bet $325 to win $100. Lopez is coming back at +240 as the underdog.

Those -325 odds give Stevenson about a 76% implied probability to win. The sportsbooks are giving Lopez roughly a 29% chance to pull the upset. A draw sits at +1400.

Look at the method of victory odds. Stevenson is -190 to win by decision but +600 to win by knockout. Lopez is +450 to win on points and +700 to stop Stevenson. The books don’t expect either guy to get the finish.

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Lopez vs Stevenson Tale of the Tape

Both fighters are 28 years old and stand 5’8″ tall. Lopez has a slight half-inch reach advantage. This is about as evenly matched as it gets on paper.

Teofimo Lopez vs Shakur Stevenson

Lopez already has signature wins over Lomachenko and Taylor. Stevenson has titles in three weight classes, but critics say he hasn’t faced anyone on that level yet. Saturday changes that for both of them.

How to Watch Lopez vs Stevenson

The main card starts at 6:05 pm ET on DAZN Pay-Per-View. Ring walks for Lopez and Stevenson are expected around 10:50 pm ET.

DAZN is charging $69.99 for the pay-per-view, which includes a seven-day free trial of the platform. The card also features Keyshawn Davis vs Jamaine Ortiz and Bruce Carrington fighting for the vacant WBC featherweight title.