Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Erickson Lubin Prediction, Odds, Tale of the Tape & Undercard

• Vergil Ortiz Jr is a -700 favorite to beat Erickson Lubin in Fort Worth on Saturday
• Ortiz defends his WBC interim super welterweight title for the second time
• See below for my Ortiz vs Lubin prediction, updated odds and tale of the tape for this fight

Jump to: Prediction | Odds | Tale of the Tape | Undercard

Vergil Ortiz Jr (23-0) defends his WBC interim super welterweight title against Erickson Lubin (27-2) Saturday at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. The Texas knockout artist comes home as a big -700 favorite, and I predict he stops Lubin late after weathering some early storms.

The fight starts at 8:00 PM ET on DAZN, with the main event around 11:00 PM ET.

Ortiz vs Lubin Prediction

• Vergil Ortiz Jr to win by KO/TKO (-150 at BetMGM)
• Fight to go Under 9.5 rounds (+110 at BetMGM)

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Lubin could give Ortiz some real trouble in the early rounds. He’s a southpaw from Florida with a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and he knows how to use it. He’s already shared the ring with big names like Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora. Sure, he lost both by stoppage, but he managed to drop Fundora, proving he’s not just there to fill out the card.

What makes Lubin dangerous now is how much better he moves. He’s not just standing in the pocket anymore. Against Jesus Ramos Jr, he boxed smart and frustrated a bigger fighter. Against Ardreal Holmes Jr, he got the late stoppage in round 11.

Lubin’s movement could frustrate Ortiz early. But Ortiz brings something different. Golden Boy calls him “The Texas Machine,” and it fits. He cuts you down piece by piece with those body shots. Ortiz picks his punches carefully, and those liver shots can end fights instantly. Once he gets his timing, the pressure never stops.

And Ortiz has grit, too. Remember the Bohachuk fight? He got knocked down twice, though one was called a slip, but he didn’t panic. Instead, he made adjustments, took over in the later rounds, and cruised to a clear win. Then he beat Israil Madrimov cleaner than Crawford did. That’s skill, not luck.

The blueprint is obvious. Ortiz has stopped 21 of his 23 opponents, and four of his last six knockouts came after round six. He wears you down and then puts you away.

Here’s how I predict Saturday will play out: Lubin starts fast, using reach and movement to rack up rounds. He might even buzz Ortiz early. But as rounds tick by, Ortiz will find his range. The body shots will land, and Lubin’s legs will slow.

By round 8, I predict Ortiz will have him backed up against the ropes. Whether it’s the ref waving it off or Lubin’s corner throwing in the towel, expect a Texas-style finish for the hometown hero.

Updated Ortiz vs Lubin Odds

Ortiz comes in as a heavy favorite at -700. That means you’d have to risk $700 just to make $100. On the other side, Lubin is the underdog with a big reward. If he pulls off the upset, a $100 bet pays out $500 in profit.

But the real story is in the knockout odds. Ortiz is sitting at -150 to win by stoppage, and that lines up with his 91 percent knockout rate. The oddsmakers clearly respect Lubin’s toughness, though.

Then there’s the +290 line for the fight not going the distance. That strongly implies someone’s getting stopped, plain and simple. And when you remember that both of Lubin’s losses came by knockout, it starts to feel less like a guess and more like a pattern.

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Odds as of Nov. 8 at BetMGM. Get the best boxing betting sites to use on the Ortiz vs Lubin fight.

Ortiz vs Lubin Tale of the Tape

These are different fighters with very different tools, as evidenced by the tale of the tape.

Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Erickson Lubin

Lubin holds a key advantage with his 4.5-inch reach. That’s no slight edge. Combine that with his southpaw stance, and Ortiz is going to have some early problems to figure out. Still, this isn’t uncharted territory for Ortiz. He’s faced crafty southpaws before and found ways to break them down.

Now look at the knockout stats. Ortiz has a staggering 91 percent KO rate, which is rare at this weight. Lubin’s 70 percent is respectable on paper, but context matters. Both of his losses came by stoppage, and each time it was against a heavy hitter. When Lubin steps up in class against power punchers, things tend to go sideways.

Ortiz vs Lubin Undercard

Full Fight Card:

There is a good undercard for Saturday’s bout for DAZN. Fulghum and Stevens should deliver at super middleweight. Fulghum is 14-1 with 12 knockouts, while Stevens is 15-2 with 10 KOs. That likely means someone’s hitting the canvas.

Joshua Edwards is the prospect to watch on this Ortiz vs Lubin undercard, though. After winning gold at the Pan Am Games, he’s gone 4-0 as a pro, all by knockout. The heavyweight division needs fresh blood, and Edwards might just be the next one to shake things up. He’s set to face Zeno Vooris.

How to Watch Ortiz vs Lubin

Where: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
When: Saturday, November 8, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET (Main card start)
Main Event: Approximately 11:00 PM ET
TV/Streaming: DAZN (Available in over 200 countries)

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This fight will determine what happens in 2026. People want to see Ortiz fight Jaron Ennis, and if he wins convincingly, he will get his chance. Lubin is trying for a world title for the third time, after losing to Charlo and Fundora. Three times and you’re out, or maybe the third time is the charm. We’ll find out on Saturday night in Texas.