Canada vs. Slovakia Prediction, Odds, Spread & Projected Lineups for World Juniors (Jan. 2)

• Canada is favored by 3.5 goals over Slovakia in their quarterfinal matchup at the World Juniors
• The Canadians have scored seven or more goals in three of four games
• See my Canada vs Slovakia prediction, along with the latest odds and spread, plus projected starting lineups

Tonight’s last quarterfinal matchup at the World Juniors features Canada (4-0) versus Slovakia (1-3). The winner will move on to the semis to face either USA or Finland, and online sportsbooks believe the Canadians won’t have much trouble advancing. It’s hard not to agree, but instead of laying 3.5 goals on the spread, my Canada vs Slovakia prediction is banking on a high-scoring affair.

Puck drop is set for 8:30 PM ET / 5:30 PM PT from the 3M Arena at Mariucci in Minneapolis, MN. NHL Network will cover broadcast duties in America, while TSN has the Canadian rights.

Here’s my Canada vs Slovakia prediction, along with the latest odds and spread, plus projected starting lineups.

Canada vs Slovakia Prediction

World Junior Picks:

• Over +7.5 (+102 at DraftKings)
• Michael Hage Anytime Goal Scorer (-105 at FanDuel)

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I’m betting over 7.5 goals in tonight’s matchup, and getting plus-money odds to do so. Canada has scored at least seven times on their own in three of their four outings, and led the preliminary round in goals for (25) and goal differential (+14). Slovakia meanwhile, has allowed 13 goals so far, and boast a save percentage below .900.

The Canadian roster is littered with future NHL talent, and gets balanced scoring from their top-three lines. They lead the tournament so far in shooting percentage (17.12%), while only Sweden has fired more shots on goal. Four Canadians rank in the top-six in tournament scoring, while eight players have recorded at least five points.

One of the biggest reasons for Canada’s output has been the success of its powerplay. They’ve converted on 7 of their 13 attempts (53.85%), and should get plenty of opportunities tonight with the man advantage. Only Germany and Denmark, the two worst teams in the tournament, have been penalized more than Slovakia. The Slovaks have been abysmal killing penalties, allowing goals on 40% of opponent powerplays.

Extra powerplay time is also one of the reasons I love Michael Hage’s chances to score tonight. Hage and his wicked shot have been the focal point of the first powerplay unit, and he arguably could have had three or four powerplay tallies last time out versus the Finns.

You’re probably wondering why I don’t just bet Canada -3.5 given how much I like their offense. I’m still concerned about the play in their own end, and the over aggressiveness of their defensemen. Yes it can lead to plenty of scoring opportunities, but it can also lead to odd man rushes the other way when they get caught pinching.

Canada’s goaltending has also struggled, posting an .879 save percentage. Slovakia is far from an offensive juggernaut, but they have managed to score at least two goals in every game, and feature Tomas Chrenko who leads the tournament in scoring. I bet they can punch back two or three times tonight to help this game soar over the 7.5 goal total.

Canada vs Slovakia Odds and Spread

The best place to bet over 7.5 goals currently is DraftKings, who are offering the line at +102 odds. Canada is a -340 favorite to win outright, with Slovakia coming back as +260 underdogs.

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Odds as of Jan 2. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on the World Juniors.

Canada vs Slovakia Projected Lineups

As for the projected lineups, it looks like there is going to be a change in between the Canadian pipes. Jack Ivankovic was the first goalie off the ice at practice, which is a good sign he’ll get the start. Ivankovic stopped 26 of 27 shots in his lone start versus Latvia, while Carter George has allowed 10 goals over his three outings.

As for the Slovaks, we’ll likely see Michal Pradel in net once again. He’s started three of the four games so far, and posted the lone Slovakia win.

In addition to Chrenko, the Canadians will want to keep their eye on Adam Nemec. The brother of New Jersey Devils defenseman Simon Nemec has five points, tied with d-man Luka Radivojevic for second on the team.