Analysis: US Online Casinos To Reach $1 Billion Monthly Revenue In December

When the US online casino revenue number for October dropped, it was eye-opening.

The $969.7 million in iGaming gross revenue from the seven online casino states, collectively, was a new monthly record by nearly $60 million. It was a 6.5% jump from the previous record revenue that was set in August.

Following that big number, the next question is – When will US online casinos reach $1 billion in monthly revenue?

Hitting $1 billion is a major milestone, and by pouring through the data, the answer to that question looks to be sooner rather than later.

Looking through the numbers, I believe that US online casinos will surpass $1 billion in monthly gross revenue in December of this year. Those actual numbers will come out in late January 2026.

Big Three States to Dictate Reaching $1 Billion

While there are seven states that produce online casino revenue, this milestone is going to be about the major three markets of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey.

In October’s record total, these three states made up $851.3 million of the $969.7 million. Their revenue trends largely dictate what you can expect to see out of the remaining four states. While those four states still bring in a big chunk of change that will push the total over $1 billion eventually, they will still follow the trend of the top markets in the big three states.

It should be noted that some states individually report their adjusted gross revenue (AGR), which removes promotional spend from their wins. This data and prediction is strictly looking at gross revenue, which doesn’t factor in promotional spending for the respective states and their online casinos.

October Record Revenue Not Uncommon

For starters, it should be stated that the October record isn’t a surprise on the whole.

But, the severity of the new record was surprising.

In the top three markets of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey, October has brought on a new revenue record for each state in both 2025 and 2024.

The final quarter for each state typically is the biggest revenue period each year, with October getting things started.

US Needs 3.1% Growth to Hit $1 Billion

Following October’s $969.7 million total, that leaves the US online casino industry needing 3.1% more gross revenue to hit the $1 billion milestone for a month.

That number is important, as it helps connect the dots on the next couple of months.

For each of these three top state markets, November has produced a new monthly revenue record in 2024 and 2023. In each instance, never has that growth in November hit 3% in each state. Some of the states have seen 2.9% growth in November compared to the previous record, but not 3% or greater.

Given how much of a jump October made compared to previous months, it’s hard to see that continuing in November to where it would push the US past the $1 billion revenue mark.

Why December Will See $1 Billion+ in US Online Casino Revenue

Again, trends are important in this analysis.

There have been consistent trends when it comes to US online casino gross gaming revenue month-to-month.

One has been sizable growth in revenue from October to December each year. While October to November growth has been under 3%, October to December has ranged from 6-13% depending on the state and the year. Here’s a look at how each of the three state’s revenue in those months in 2023 and 2024 compare.

While the line from October to November is largely flat, the line from November to December makes a significant uptick.

Here’s how the October to December percentages look for each state the previous two years.

The average growth between these three states from October-December is 10.4%. That is well beyond the 3.1% that the iGaming states need to see to get to $1 billion in monthly revenue.

If these three states went up another 10.4% in revenue growth over November and December, that would get them to $939 million, collectively. The remaining four states would easily help the country’s industry cross the finish line of $1 billion, as they have already surpassed $100 million over the last four months of available data.

While November could come close, I feel confident that December will be the first month that online casinos in the US reach $1 billion in gross gaming revenue.

Don’t expect that to be the peak, either. There is no indication that online casino revenue is slowing down in growth. While $1.5 billion or $2 billion in a month seems unlikely, there was a time that $1 billion did as well.