Champions League Betting – Real Madrid vs. FC Schalke 04

Real Madrid (-500) vs. FC Schalke 04 (+1200) (Draw +550)

Real Madrid will host Schalke 04 tomorrow (March 10 at 3:45 p.m. Eastern at Santiago Bernabeu) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 matchup.

The Merengues are huge favorites, sitting at -500 in the moneyline, while Schalke is +1200, and the draw is +550

Real took the first leg handily in Germany (0-2) as -275 favorites on the strength of goals by Cristiano Ronaldo (26’) and Marcelo (79’). Madrid will move onto the next round unless Schalke can muster a massive two-goal upset win.

Looking at the trends, a Schalke victory would run counter to all recent history.

Madrid have won 12 straight at home (if they win tomorrow, they will equal the UEFA Champions League record for consecutive home wins with 13). The last time they failed to take the full three points at home was back in February 2013 when they drew Manchester United (1-1).

Moreover, Schalke haven’t won in Spain since the 2005-06 UEFA Cup when they beat RCD Espanyol (3-0) in the Round of 32; they are 0-4-4 since then.

Of course, Schalke aren’t resigned to their fate and will muster the best game plan they can. According to manager Roberto Di Matteo, his needs to reduce space and take care of the counters.

“We wanted to keep the openings at a minimum for Madrid, not allow them space between our lines. We did defend a bit higher, but you always have to be wary of their speed and counterattacks,” said Di Matteo.

Madrid should be able to handle Schalke once against without much problem. Since Schalke will be forced to press the action, Madrid should have ample opportunity to counter – despite Di Matteo’s strategizing. Betting the home team to win by more than two goals looks like the best value.

(Photo credit: El Coleccionista de Instant (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo may appear cropped.)