Champions League Betting – Roma, Porto Battle in Qualifier

AS Roma (+229) at FC Porto (+125), Draw (+225)

There’s only room for one of AS Roma and FC Porto in this year’s Champions League. Thanks to somewhat disappointing seasons last year, the two storied European clubs will square off in a two-game qualification series, with the winner advancing to the Group Stage and the loser seeing their UCL hopes dashed early. The first leg goes tomorrow at Estadio do Dragao in Porto (Wednesday, August 17, at 2:45 PM Eastern).

Porto finished a disappointing third in Portugal’s Primeira Liga last season behind both Benfica and Sporting Lisbon. They also bowed out of the Champions League early, failing to advance past the Group Stage in the 2015-16 edition.

Goals have been hard to come by in the Champions League for Porto. They’ve lost four straight UCL games without scoring. New coach Nuno Espírito Santo has had his offense firing early this year, though; Porto won their first Primeira Liga game 3-1 over Rio Ave. That followed a string of solid friendlies, including a 1-0 win over Villarreal and a 2-0 win over Guimaraes.

Like Porto, Roma also finished third domestically last season (behind both Juventus and Napoli in Italy’s Serie A). They did a little better than Porto in the Champions League, reaching the Round of 16 before bowing out to the eventual champs, Real Madrid. But they’ve also failed to score in three straight UCL matches.

Their pre-season friendlies provide some encouragement. They won five straight, with the most impressive being a 2-1 triumph over Liverpool. Don’t put too much credence in their 16-0 embarrassment of Pinzolo. Pinzolo are a tiny squad that had no business being on the same pitch.

There isn’t much history between these sides. They haven’t met since 1981 when Porto beat Roma 2-0 on aggregate in a two-game UEFA Cup series. However, Roma manager Luciano Spalletti knows a bit about his foe. He faced Porto four times during his tenure with Zenit St. Petersburg and never lost a match, going 2-2-0. Roma, as a club, also have a winning record against Portuguese sides (5-4-3 in 12 matches).

Porto, on the other hand, are well under .500 against Italian teams (7-8-11).

I see Roma as the slightly stronger team, but playing on home soild should level the playing field for Porto.

Pick: Draw (+225). 

Photo Credit: md.faisalzaman [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.