Chess Odds: Karjakin Set for Shock Win

Sergey Karjakin (-200) vs Magnus Carlsen (+170)

When Russian Grandmaster Sergey Karjakin qualified to take on reigning world champion Magnus Carlsen in the 2016 World Chess Championship, the chess community was not all that hopeful about his chances.

Magnus Carlsen won the 2013 World Chess Championship and has successfully defended his title twice, winning each championship convincingly. He also picked up the World Rapid Chess Championship, the World Blitz Chess Championship, and in May 2014, became the highest rated player of all-time (2882 ELO rating).

So when it came to defending his title in New York for the 2016 World Chess Championship, only a handful of players were thought to even have a fighting chance. Sergey Karjakin was not one of them.

Karjakin is the ninth-ranked chess player in the world, with a rating of 2772. That’s a high rating, but there are currently four chess players above the 2800 mark. So when Karjakin finished first in the Candidates Tournament and earned his shot at the title, the bookmakers had him as a +380 underdog.

The two players had faced off 21 times prior. Carlsen had won four, Karjakin had won one, and the other 16 ended in draws. Their last encounter was at the Bilbao Masters in July, where they faced off twice. Carlson won one and the other ended in a draw. That was how things stood coming into the World Championship.

The first seven games of the championship all ended the same way — draws. But then, in the eighth game, Karjakin managed to score a win. Carlsen, who was playing white (a significant advantage due to going first), blundered on move 51 and handed Karjakin the victory.

Now, with only four games to go, Carlsen finds himself one game down against an opponent who will be content with forcing a draw for the remaining games. It’s a bad spot for the champ, but if anyone can dig his way out of it, it’s Carlsen.

Magnus has shown that he does not need the white-piece advantage to win, and so each of the four remaining games are real opportunities for him to stage a comeback. He’s also an expert at exploiting small advantages to edge a win. If Karjakin slips up at all, Carlsen will be the there to capitalise.

But as things stand, Carlsen is in real trouble, and the most likely outcome is a series of draws that hand Karjakin the title.

Pick: Sergey Karjakin

Photo credit: “Magnus Carlsen scheduled to be at CES 2014” by Intel Free Press, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.