Arkansas vs Murray State Predictions, Odds & Picks (June 16)

• Arkansas is a heavy -500 favorite against Murray State in the College World Series on Monday, June 16
• This is a crucial elimination contest, with the loser sent packing from the tournament
• See my Arkansas vs Murray State picks and predictions below

The College World Series continues on Monday afternoon, and it’s a critical game between Arkansas and Murray State. The winner continues in the tournament, while the loser goes home. On the campaign, the Razorbacks were 48-14 while contending with a brutal SEC schedule, while the Racers were 44-16 out of the MVC. The winner faces the loser of the UCLA vs LSU game Monday night. Murray State has never won the College World Series, while Arkansas has made the championship game twice (1979, 2018) but fell in the final both instances.

The books heavily favor Arkansas over Murray State, with opening pitch set for 2pm ET on Monday, June 16, at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska, with ESPN/ESPN+ providing coverage.

Arkansas vs Murray State Odds

The Razorbacks are hefty -500 favorites on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 83.33%. The Racers, meanwhile, are +340, an implied probability of just 22.73%. Arkansas is -3.5 (-135) on the runline, and the total is set at 10.5 runs with -130 odds on the over.

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Arkansas vs Murray State Picks & Predictions

• Arkansas runline (-135 at DraftKings)

Both of these clubs are squaring off following losses. Arkansas dropped their contest against LSU 4-1 on Saturday, and Murray State was on the losing end of a 6-4 battle against UCLA. The Razorbacks were the favorites the College World Series odds, but have since drifted to the +600 third choice, while the Racers are by far the longest shot at +30000.

Arkansas had been riding high with five straight victories and seven of eight, but their offense dried up against LSU, resulting in just one run, their lowest output of the season. They allowed three runs in the second frame against the Tigers, and couldn’t generate much against LSU ace Kade Anderson, who gave up just one run on three hits in seven innings of work.

The Razorbacks will send Gage Wood to the bump Monday afternoon. He’s been their second starter throughout this postseason, pitching in important games versus Creighton and Tennessee. He allowed just one run in 3.1 innings against the Volunteers in the Super Regionals, and whiffed 13 Bluejays batters in a start prior to that.

Previous Six Men’s College World Series Winners

No winner in 2020 due to COVID

Murray State faces a steep uphill battle to win the College World Series, not the least of which starts in this contest. They’ve been inconsistent the last six outings, winning three, but also falling in three. The latest one was 6-4 to UCLA, where they trailed 6-0 by the fourth inning and weren’t able to mount a shocking comeback.

As of publication, the Racers haven’t revealed who the starting pitcher is going to be, but the squad needs to figure out their staff quickly. Prior to giving up ten total runs the last two games, they’d surrendered at least seven in five straight, including outings coughing up 19 runs once and eleven runs twice.

Can the Racers summon more magic that made Dan Skirka the national coach of the year? The odds certainly aren’t in their favor in this one, as they square off with a team so heavily expected to emerge victorious.

Murray State could take advantage of starter Gage Wood, if he pitches like he did in the regular season, which was a pedestrian 5.02 ERA. As previously noted, however, he’s been strong in this postseason run, allowing four runs in 9.1 innings.

There’s no super fun value bet to go with, if you’re inclined to believe the oddsmakers are right with Arkansas. The moneyline -500 isn’t in any way enticing, but the run line of -3.5 is at least something you can stomach at -135.