Louisville vs Oregon State Odds, Picks & Predictions

• Oregon State is a -200 moneyline favorite over Louisville in College Baseball World Series action on Friday
• The Cardinals are one of three unranked teams remaining in the final eight
• See the Louisville vs Oregon State odds, plus my picks and predictions below

The College Baseball World Series gets underway on Friday with unranked Louisville (38-21) facing #8 Oregon State (47-14-1) in the second of two games on the day. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Beavers ahead of this matchup, although I believe these two teams are much closer than the odds suggest.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska, with ESPN and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

Louisville vs Oregon State Odds

Oregon State is currently a -200 moneyline favorite, and is laying 1.5 runs on the spread at -105 odds. The Cardinals come back as +160 underdogs, while the total sits at 9.5.

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Louisville vs Oregon State Predictions

As of Thursday evening, only Cinderella Murray State has longer College World Series odds than Louisville. The Cardinals have never won a national championship, but are making their eighth trip to Omaha, and first since 2019.

The Beavers are also making their eighth trip, but have three national championship trophies to show for their previous seven visits. Oregon State made its way out of the losers bracket at Regionals, and then rallied from an opening game loss at Super Regionals to advance to this stage. They’ll be looking to buck that early loss trend this week in the double-elimination format.

That might be easier said than done. Louisville won all three Regional games, knocking off #1 Vanderbilt along the way. They then prevailed in three games over Miami at Super Regionals, punching their MCWS ticket.

The Cardinals are one of the few teams that can match the firepower of the Beavers. Louisville has scored 66 more runs than Oregon State, despite playing four fewer games. They’ve also racked up 76 more hits, and boast a better batting average and slugging percentage.

LOU vs ORST Offensive Stats

The Cardinals hit for both power and average, but their real advantage is on the base path. They’ve converted 155 of 175 stolen base attempts so far this year, which has gone a long way to help manufacture runs. They should find success in that department on Friday, as Beavers catchers have thrown out only 26% of base stealers thus far.

As for the pitching matchup, neither team has a major edge. Louisville will send ace Patrick Forbes to the mound, who’s been a postseason star. Forbes allowed just two hits and two runs in a Regionals win over ETSU, striking out 16. He followed up that start with 5.2 innings of one-run ball versus the Hurricanes, striking out nine. The righty ranks 13th nationally in strikeouts, averaging 14.6 K’s per 9 innings.

Oregon State will counter with Freshman Dax Whitney, who’s been just as impressive. He’s allowed only three runs over his past two starts, with 22 strikeouts in just 10.2 innings of work. Whitney ranks 14th nationally in K/9 rate, and the only knock on him is that he doesn’t often go deep in games. He’s failed to get out of the 5th inning in six of his last nine outings, including last time out versus Florida State.

The Beavers bats meanwhile, were completely neutralized in Games 1 and 2 versus the elite Seminoles starters at Super Regionals. The lineup came alive against weaker competition in Game 3, but versus another talented arm in Forbes, it could be a similar story.

Oregon State strikes out a ton, which will be amplified against Forbes. The Beavers rank 218th nationally in strikeout rate, and 232nd against righties like Forbes.

To make matters worse for Oregon State, there will be no relief once Forbes exits the game. Louisville’s bullpen has yielded only five runs in six postseason games. They boast a three-headed monster in Wyatt Danilowicz, Jake Schweitzer and Brennyn Cutts, who’ve combined to surrender only five hits and one earned run in 13.2 innings. The Trio have been big K producers as well, fanning 15 batters over that stretch.

Louisville vs Oregon State Picks

• Louisville Cardinals +1.5 (-125) at bet365

This contest profiles as a low-scoring affair, which is why I’m grabbing the +1.5 on the Cardinals. They have the ability to give the Beavers fits when they get runners on base, and their pitching can expose the Beavers biggest weakness. I’ll also take a little slice of the Louisville moneyline at +160, as it’s not hard for me to envision Oregon State starting another playoff round with an opening game defeat.