Murray State vs UCLA Odds, Predictions & Best Picks

• UCLA is a -260 moneyline favorite over Murray State in College Baseball World Series action on Saturday
• Nic Schutte (8-3, 4.85 ERA) will start for the Racers, while the Bruins will counter with Michael Barnett (12-1, 4.09 ERA)
• Keep reading for the Murray State vs UCLA odds, predictions and best picks below

To call Murray State (44-15) the Cinderella of this year’s College Baseball World Series would be selling the Racers short. They’re like a Cinderella on steroids. Murray State was picked to finish fifth in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, yet now they’re one of the final eight teams standing.

As heartwarming as the story is, online sportsbooks refuse to give the Racers any credit. They’ve pegged them as heavy underdogs versus UCLA (45-16) in the first game of Bracket 2 in the CWS, but I think they have the ingredients to keep this contest close.

First pitch is scheduled for 2pm ET at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska, with ESPN and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Murray State vs UCLA Odds

The Bruins are currently -260 moneyline favorites, and are laying 2.5 runs on the spread at -105 odds. Murray State comes back as a +195 underdog, while the total sits at 11, up from its 9.5 opener.

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Murray State vs UCLA Predictions

Even at 11, I’m predicting these two teams exceed the total on Saturday. The Racers lineup continues to produce regardless of who’s on the mound in front of them. UCLA starter Michael Barnett isn’t an elite arm as we’ll discuss, despite what his win-loss record looks like.

Murray State’s Nic Schutte is far from a mega-talent as well, and he’s vulnerable against a very strong UCLA lineup that boasts the best prospect in the country in Roch Cholowsky.

Speaking of prospects, you won’t find very many future Major Leaguers on the Racers roster. According to scouts, only catcher Will Vierling is even draft worthy. The lock of upside hasn’t stopped Murray State from scoring in the regular season or playoff rounds. They’re slashing .307/.422/.508, while averaging 9 runs per game. The Racers rank 16th nationally in OPS, and boast the 12th lowest strikeout rate versus righties like Barnett.

As for the Bruins starter, yes he’s won 12 games, but he doesn’t generate swings and misses at a high rate. He’s averaging fewer than three Ks per nine innings over his last three starts, and has yielded 12 hits and four runs in 10 playoff innings so far.

Murray State should be able to get runners on base and, when they do, they’ve proven all postseason long that they can capitalize from any spot in the lineup.

Nick Schutte vs Michael Barnett Stats

Back to Schutte, who’s been roughed up in all three of his postseason outings. Last time out, he coughed up five hits and five runs in a loss to Duke, walking three and striking out only one. His struggles extend back to the regular season, as he’s now surrendered at least four runs in four consecutive starts. Not only is Schutte ripe for the picking, but the rest of the Murray State staff is as well. Over the last 11 games, that unit is allowing 8.6 runs per contest.

The lack of pitching depth and star talent explain why the Races own the longest College World Series odds. UCLA not only features Cholowsky, the Big Ten Player of the Year, but seven additional players that project as fifth-round draft picks or higher. Cholowsky is the crown jewel, however, hitting .376, with 23 home runs, and 73 RBI.

The Bruins have averaged 10 runs per game since Regional action started, and haven’t lost since the Big Ten Championship Game versus Nebraska. They boast the fifth shortest odds to win the College World Series, something they last accomplished 12 years ago.

Murray State vs UCLA Best Picks

• Over 11 (-110)

I expect UCLA to score early and often against Schutte and Co. Murray State will have the opportunity to punch back, as the matchup against Barnett is one they can handle.

Pat yourself on the back if you grabbed over 9.5 runs when the odds for this game opened. I still think there’s value on over 11, and that’s how I’ll be attacking this matchup.