Akron vs Texas Tech Best Bets & Predictions for Midwest Region Opener (March 20)

Published: March 20, 2026 at 10:08 am EDT

sports bet march madness texas — Mar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Donovan Atwell (12) looks on during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

No. 5 seed Texas Tech enters the NCAA Tournament on a 3-game losing streak
Our data-driven analysis targets the 7.5-point spread, fading a heavy public consensus
See our best bets for Texas Tech vs. Akron in today’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament

Do you believe in momentum? Or the power of the 12-vs.-5 upset?

No. 5 seed Texas Tech has lost three games in a row, including its opening game of the Big 12 Tournament. No. 12 seed Akron has won 10 in a row, including the MAC Tournament championship. It’s the perfect storm, right? Not so fast …

Today, the teams collide in the opening round of the Midwest Region. Tip-off is set for 12:40 pm, ET, in Tampa, with truTV providing national coverage.

Despite the recent streaks and seeding history, Texas Tech (22-10) enters as the clear betting favorite over Akron (29-5).

The Red Raiders are dealing with dynamic shifts. All-American forward JT Toppin is sidelined with a season-ending torn ACL, but All-Big 12 First Team guard Christian Anderson is back. (Be sure to track March Madness injuries before every game.) Akron just won its third consecutive MAC Tournament title behind the clutch shooting of Tavari Johnson and guard Shammah Scott.

Our comprehensive betting guide will break down the matchup from every analytical angle and provide the best bets for this classic 5-12 showdown.

Texas Tech vs Akron Predictions & Best Bets

When analyzing the board for this first-round clash, the betting markets provide a clear picture of how this neutral-site game is expected to unfold. Both programs carry contrasting historical baggage into this matchup: Akron is a staggering 0-7 outright in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1981, while Texas Tech is making its third straight tournament appearance and 22nd overall.

The Pick: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The consensus odds initially opened with Texas Tech favored by 8.5 points, but early market respect for the 29-win underdog has nudged the full-game handicap down to -7.5. Despite the line shifting toward Akron, laying the points with the favorites is the most mathematically sound play.

The situational trends heavily favor the power-conference squad in this specific spot. This season, Akron is an abysmal 0-3 straight up when stepping up in class against top-50 competition. Oddsmakers have set Texas Tech’s implied team total at 82.5, pointing toward an offensive output that Akron simply hasn’t faced in MAC play. The Zips’ perimeter defense will struggle to contain a healthy Anderson, and Texas Tech’s interior length will dictate the paint. Backing the favorite at -114 to win by eight or more points is our primary spread prediction.

The Total: Over 156.5 ($0.49 per contract at Kalshi)

Prediction site Kalshi offers multiple markets on the total, but our analysis points to Over 156.5. This contract is trading for $0.49 per, which equates to +104 odds. A $20 investment in these contracts would produce a $21 profit if the teams combine for 157 or more points.

Here’s why we are locking in the Over for this matchup: The total originally opened at 157.5 before dropping slightly to the current consensus of 156.5. This projects a highly efficient, up-tempo affair. Akron is expected to actively contribute to the scoring column, as their Over 74.5 team total is priced at -111. The Zips have generated a massive volume of three-point attempts during their 10-game winning streak, which will force Texas Tech into a track meet.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Prediction Markets

Texas Tech vs Akron

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Texas Tech

75%

Akron

27%

Predict

Public Betting Splits and Handle Breakdown

Evaluating the college basketball public betting trends is critical. The stake percentages (the actual money wagered) offers a far more valuable metric than looking solely at the ticket count. Tracking where the heavy financial liability lies helps paint a clearer picture of how both casual bettors and larger syndicates are approaching this classic 5-12 trap game.

Against the Spread

The public loves a Cinderella story, and they are heavily backing Akron to keep this game close. The Zips are currently drawing 62.76% of the spread bets, and that confidence is backed by significant capital, with Akron commanding a robust 72.25% of the stake percentage. Texas Tech is taking in just 37.24% of the tickets and only 27.75% of the money. Because both the ticket count and the money percentage exceed the 60% threshold on the Akron side, there is unified market agreement backing the underdog. This means our official recommendation to lay the points with Texas Tech -7.5 represents a distinctly contrarian position, effectively fading the public liability.

Moneyline Market

Unsurprisingly, the betting public is anchoring their parlays to the favored Big 12 squad to advance outright. Texas Tech commands a massive 90.51% of the betting tickets. However, looking at the handle reveals sharp resistance: Texas Tech holds a much lower 61.99% of the stake percentage. While the vast majority of casual bettors are plugging them into standard moneyline parlays, the handle percentage suggests that larger individual wagers are taking a flier on the Akron moneyline, who account for just 9.49% of the tickets but hold 38.01% of the total money.

The Total

A consensus has formed regarding the game’s total scoring output. Bettors are heavily aligned on a lower-scoring affair, with the UNDER receiving 71.54% of the betting tickets and 68.48% of the stake percentage. The Over is seeing limited support, taking in just 28.46% of the bets and 31.52% of the money. Just like our spread prediction, our official play on the OVER 156.5 requires going against the grain to capitalize on a pace-up game script.

Akron vs Texas Tech Analytics

Metric	Texas Tech [No. 5]	Akron [No. 12]
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.5990	0.5013
Adjusted Win % (AWP)	0.6765	0.8699
Opponent Win % (OWP)	0.6214	0.4998
Opp. Opponent Win % (OOWP)	0.5543	0.5044
Record vs. Top 25	5-7	0-1
Record vs. Rank 26-50	0-1	0-2
Record vs. Rank 51-100	7-2	5-2
Record vs. Rank 101-150	3-0	2-0
Record vs. Rank 151+	7-0	20-0

No surprise, Texas Tech holds significant advantages in SOS. An overwhelming 20 of Akron’s victories were against teams ranked 151st or lower. When stepping up in class against top-50 opponents, the Zips are 0-3.

That supports our best bet on Texas Tech covering the spread.

Akron vs Texas Tech Odds

Here is a look at the current consensus betting lines for this first-round matchup:

Moneyline: Texas Tech -330 | Akron +260
Spread: Texas Tech -7.5 (-114) | Akron +7.5 (-106)
Total: Over 156.5 (-108) | Under 156.5 (-112)

Odds as of March 19, 2026, at 2:05 PM UTC from consensus odds.

To get a clearer picture of how oddsmakers truly view this matchup without the sportsbook’s built-in profit margin (vig), we calculate the normalized, vig-free probabilities. Based on the current moneyline odds, Texas Tech holds a 73.4% true implied probability of securing the victory. On the other side of the court, Akron has a 26.6% normalized probability of shocking the world and moving on to the Round of 32.

If you are looking to place a wager on the outright winner, the potential returns vary significantly due to the pricing gap. A $10 bet on the favored Texas Tech moneyline at -330 would yield a modest profit of $3.03, resulting in a total payout of $13.03. Conversely, placing that same $10 wager on the underdog Akron moneyline at +260 would net $26.00 in profit, returning a total payout of $36.00 if the Zips can finally secure their first tournament win in over four decades.

Kalshi also has markets on the moneyline. Texas Tech to win contracts are $0.75, which equates to -300 odds, making it slightly more valuable than the consensus lines. Akron to win contracts are $0.26, or +285 odds. Again, Kalshi’s contracts offer more value than consensus books.