Alabama vs Gonzaga Picks & Predictions, Plus Updated Odds & Betting Splits

• Undefeated #12 Gonzaga is favored over one-loss #8 Alabama tonight in Vegas (9:30 pm ET)
• The betting total sits at a massive 178.5 points, with overwhelming public money backing the over
• See my favorite Alabama vs Gonzaga picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting splits

A marquee non-conference battle lights up Las Vegas as the undefeated #12 Gonzaga Bulldogs (5-0, 4-1 ATS, 1-4 O/U) clash with the fast-paced #8 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U). While Gonzaga enters as the betting favorite riding a five-game winning streak, Alabama (17th at KenPom, #5 in RPI) represents the Zags’ most-formidable test to date. The Bulldogs rate considerably higher at KenPom (#3) but significantly lower in RPI (#22).

While Alabama already has a loss on its resume (87-80 at home to 2nd-rated Purdue), they also have two wins that are better than any of the five on Gonzaga’s early-season schedule (103-96 at 16th-rated St John’s, 90-86 at 7th-rated Illinois). Gonzaga’s best win so far is a 90-63 rout of 51st-rated Creighton.

Alabama vs Gonzaga tips off from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas at 9:30 pm ET on Monday night, with national television coverage on TNT. Below, I have set out my three favorite Alabama vs Gonzaga picks, the latest Bama/Gonzaga odds, and the public-betting splits for this top-25 matchup.

Jump to: PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS

Alabama vs Gonzaga Expert Picks & Betting Predictions

While Gonzaga maintains an unblemished record, Alabama’s offensive firepower has proven explosive, and they face a Bulldogs squad that, despite perfection on paper, hasn’t encountered an opponent of this caliber. The sky-high total of 178.5 points reflects the offensive capabilities both programs possess plus Alabama’s relentless pace (sixth-fastest tempo in the nation).

ATS Pick: Alabama +5.0 (-110) at Caesars

Gonzaga’s formidable frontcourt tandem of Graham Ike (17.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and Braden Huff (14.8 PPG) presents a significant interior threat, but Alabama’s guard-driven attack and pace are perfectly constructed to neutralize that advantage. The Crimson Tide possess the firepower to keep this contest competitive throughout. Freshman sensation Labaron Philon Jr. has been exceptional, averaging 20.5 points per game while shooting an efficient 53.2% from the field. Complementing him, Aden Holloway contributes another 17.7 PPG to Alabama’s balanced scoring attack.

Alabama’s #5 RPI ranking reflects a program that has faced adversity early and emerged battle-tested. They won’t be overwhelmed by the bright lights of Las Vegas. Situational trends favor undersized underdogs with elite backcourt play in neutral-site environments, particularly when facing teams with dominant frontcourts. Alabama’s guard-heavy approach allows them to dictate tempo and create favorable matchup scenarios. The Crimson Tide have demonstrated resilience in high-pressure situations, making them an attractive play to stay within the number against an undefeated but untested opponent.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 177.0 (-122) at BetRivers

All indicators point toward an offensive explosion in the desert. The betting market has embraced this narrative, pushing the total upward from its opening number of 173.5. Alabama thrives in up-tempo affairs and remains comfortable in shootouts, evidenced by their 103-96 victory over St. John’s earlier this season. Their offensive depth features four players in double figures, including Houston Mallette, who has maintained perfect accuracy from the charity stripe at 15-for-15.

Gonzaga possesses the offensive efficiency to match Alabama’s pace. With Ike and Huff controlling interior real estate, the Bulldogs are converting an impressive 61.8% of their two-point attempts. This paint dominance will force Alabama to maintain their aggressive offensive approach throughout. Alabama has consistently exceeded high totals this season, with the over connecting in four of their last five games when the line exceeded 170 points. The combination of pace, efficiency, and defensive vulnerabilities creates the perfect storm for a track meet in Vegas.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Graham Ike Over 19.5 Points (-108) at Caesars

In a contest projected to feature abundant possessions, backing the most reliable offensive weapon becomes a strategic advantage. Graham Ike serves as Gonzaga’s offensive engine, averaging 17.0 points while shooting an exceptional 58.5% from the field. His ability to generate points extends beyond field goals, as he averages 5.0 free-throw attempts per game and creates additional scoring opportunities through offensive rebounding (1.8 per game).

Alabama’s defensive scheme will likely prioritize containing the perimeter, potentially leaving Ike with favorable one-on-one situations against players like Taylor Bol Bowen and Aiden Sherrell. The Bulldogs’ star big man should see increased usage in a high-stakes environment, particularly if the game develops into the expected shootout. Ike’s consistency and Gonzaga’s reliance on his production make this prop an attractive value play with excellent upside potential.

Alabama vs Gonzaga Odds: Best Available Prices

As of 5:01 pm ET, the best Gonzaga moneyline is sitting at -192 at FanDuel. Bettors can get Alabama at +170 to win outright at ESPN Bet. After removing the vig, the true odds give Gonzaga a 66.2% implied win probability, versus 33.8% for Alabama.

The spread ranges from Gonzaga -4.5 to -5.0, up from -3.5 in the opening lines. The game total has also been bet up as high as 178.5 after opening at just 173.5.

Odds as of November 24 at 5:01 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each betting market if the college basketball odds move before game-time.

BAMA vs GONZ Public-Betting Splits

The NCAAM public betting data show significant discrepancies on the moneyline, spread, and total. Confidence exists in Gonzaga’s ability to win outright, but Alabama is widely expected to cover.

• Moneyline Distribution: The public overwhelmingly supports undefeated Gonzaga to secure victory, with 78.69% of all moneyline wagers backing the Bulldogs. The handle reflects similar confidence, as 69.03% of total money wagered supports Gonzaga.
• Spread Dynamics: However, sentiment shifts dramatically when points enter the equation. A substantial majority believes Alabama can cover the +4.5-point spread, with 63.13% of spread bets supporting the Crimson Tide, backed by 61.63% of the money. This pattern indicates public expectation of a Gonzaga victory decided by a narrow margin, aligning with our Best Bet of Alabama +4.5.
• Over/Under Consensus: An overwhelming 79.48% of all total bets support the Over 178.5. The money distribution shows even stronger conviction, with 80.02% of the handle backing a high-scoring contest. This remarkable public agreement reinforces our expert analysis and suggests both recreational and professional bettors anticipate an offensive showcase in Las Vegas.