Arizona vs Alabama Picks, Predictions, Odds & Betting Splits

• #1 Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite over #12 Alabama on Saturday night
• The Wildcats are 4-0 versus top-15 teams this season
• See my Arizona vs Alabama picks and predictions, plus the odds and betting splits, below

It may be a neutral site game, but #12 Alabama (7-2) should feel right at home in their C.M. Newton Classic showdown with #1 Arizona (8-0) tonight. The contest will tip at the Legacy Arena in Birmingham, AL, less than 60 miles from their home campus.

Despite the relative home court advantage, online sportsbooks don’t like their chances of handing the Wildcats their first defeat of the season. They’ve pegged Arizona as short favorites in the college basketball odds, after opening the Wildcats as slight underdogs.

The action is set to get underway at 9:30 pm ET, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage. Here are my Arizona vs Alabama picks and predictions, along with the latest odds and the betting splits.

Arizona vs Alabama Picks and Predictions

ATS Pick: Arizona -1.5 (+102) at FanDuel

Both these teams are top-20 contenders in the NCAA Tournament champion odds, with the Wildcats currently boasting the sixth shortest odds to win it all. On paper, Arizona and Alabama match up similarly, but the Wildcats’ superior defense and better track record versus quality opponents has me favoring them against the spread.

Arizona enters this game with a perfect 4-0 record versus top-15 opponents. They took down a then No. 3 Florida in their season opener, before beating a 15th-ranked UCLA team a few games later. They followed that performance up by immediately beating a top-3 ranked UConn team in Connecticut next time out, and are fresh off a 29-point blowout win over #20 Auburn last weekend.

Alabama, on the other hand, has dropped two of its four contests versus top-15 foes, allowing an average of over 90 points per game. The Crimson Tide can score as well as any team in the country, but defensively, they don’t have a pulse.

The Tide rank 262nd in scoring defense, and 98th in opponent shooting percentage. Contrast that with the Wildcats, who are top-40 in both metrics. Arizona’s biggest mismatch will come inside, as Alabama should struggle with the Wildcats’ elite interior play.

Freshman Koa Peat averages 16 points and 5.5 boards per game, doing the bulk of his damage inside the paint. The Wildcats have averaged 47 points in the paint per game versus top-15 opponents, outscoring UCLA, UConn and Auburn by an average of 24 points in the interior. The Tide just allowed 50 points in the paint to Clemson, and struggles to defend inside when Taylor Bol Bowen is out or in foul trouble.

The Wildcats have plenty of shooters to complement their interior game, ranking 25th in three-point percentage. They own the second-highest field percentage in the nation, and are also in second in close proximity shooting.

Defensively, they’ll have their hands full, but the Tide isn’t the first great offense they’ve faced. Arizona ranks 9th in defensive efficiency, and are the sixth stingiest team defending the paint.

Game-Total Pick: Over 177.5 (-110) at Bet365

I’m confident the Wildcats can hold Alabama below its season-long scoring average, but the Tide’s offense is simply too potent to shut down completely. Labaron Philon Jr. is the team’s leading scorer at 21.4 points per game, while Aden Holloway chips in 18 points per contest, sharing a backcourt with Philon.

Key Statistical Metrics: Arizona vs Alabama

While Arizona asserts its offensive dominance inside, Alabama relies on its three-point firepower. Only one team in the country takes more threes per game, while only two programs make more triples than the Tide. Alabama also plays at a breakneck pace, ranking eighth in adjusted tempo, which helps keep their games high scoring, even if the threes aren’t falling at their usual clip.

The Tide want to drag you into a shootout, and most of their recent opponents have obliged. The over is 4-1 in Alabama’s last five games, and 3-1 this season on neutral courts.

Arizona vs Alabama Odds

The best place to bet the Wildcats is over at Bet365, who are offering -110 odds on Arizona -1.5 at the time of writing. Total-wise, BetMGM is the book to wager on the over, as their 177.5-point over/under is 1 point less than some commercial books like FanDuel.

Odds and commentary as of 2:30 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the college basketball odds move before gametime.

Arizona vs Alabama Public Betting Trends

The college basketball public betting data shows the spread and moneyline betting heavily favor Arizona. The Wildcats actually opened up as 1.5 point underdogs, but that number quickly flipped. For what it’s worth, most advanced projection systems have Arizona winning this game outright, which is somewhat responsible for the line movement.

Total-wise, the over/under is up anywhere from 5 to 6 points from its 172.5 point opener. Advanced projection systems expect this game to produce 176 points, which is why the total jumped so quickly. Now that the number has exceeded projections, we’re starting to see buy back on the under. That side of the total is drawing 72% of the bets and 73% of the handle.