Arizona vs Michigan Prediction, Prop Bets & Odds for the National Semifinal

• No. 1 Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite over No. 1 Arizona in the second national semifinal, a virtual pick’em
• Arizona has won 13 straight and set a program record with 36 wins, while Michigan’s tournament victims have all allowed 90+ points
• Keep reading for my Arizona vs Michigan prediction, prop bets and odds for the April 4 Final Four matchup

This is the matchup everyone wanted. No. 1 Arizona (36-2) and No. 1 Michigan (35-3) have been the two best teams in college basketball all season, and now they meet with a spot in Monday’s national championship game on the line.

Arizona set a single-season program record with 36 wins and is riding a 13-game winning streak. Michigan steamrolled through the Midwest Region, beating Tennessee 95-62 in the regional final. The Wolverines are 1.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, making this essentially a coin flip.

Tip-off is 8:49 PM ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on TBS. Here are my Arizona vs Michigan prediction, prop bets and odds.

Arizona vs Michigan Prediction

ATS Pick: Arizona +1.5 (-117 at theScoreBet)

My Arizona vs Michigan prediction has the Wildcats covering and winning outright. Getting a 36-2 team as an underdog at this stage is a gift. Arizona is 29-0 as a favorite this season and 3-0 as an underdog. They simply don’t lose.

The Wildcats’ defensive identity is the key. Arizona held opponents to 27.9% from three-point range during the NCAA Tournament. Michigan relies heavily on perimeter shooting, with Yaxel Lendeborg hitting 10 threes over his last three games and the team launching 23.86 per contest. If Arizona’s defense translates, Michigan’s offense could stall.

Key Statistical Metrics: Arizona vs Michigan

Arizona’s free-throw advantage is massive. The Wildcats average 21.29 free throw attempts per game (27th) compared to Michigan’s 14.71 (133rd). With 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka attacking the paint, Arizona will live at the line against Michigan’s physical interior.

The Wildcats are also 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games and 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Arizona’s 29-2-1 ATS mark is the best in the country. Tommy Lloyd’s squad has covered their last four tournament games by margins of 5, 12, 21, and 15.

Game-Total Pick: Under 157.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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A total near 160 implies a track meet, but I don’t see it. Lucas Oil Stadium’s tricky sightlines tend to suppress shooting early, and both coaching staffs will emphasize half-court execution with a national title game on the line.

Arizona doesn’t play a typical perimeter offense. They’re 318th in three-point attempts, launching just 14 per game, and only attempted 53 total threes across four tournament games. Instead, they attack the rim and get to the line. That style tends to slow the game down and eat clock. I’d project a final around Arizona 78, Michigan 74.

Arizona vs Michigan Prop Bets

Arizona vs Michigan Prop Pick: Koa Peat Over 17.5 Points

West Region MOP Koa Peat has scored 20+ in three of his last five games, including 20 and 21 in the Elite Eight and Sweet 16. The freshman forward averages 14.1 on the season but has elevated to 20.5 per game over the last two tournament rounds.

He draws 4.5 free throw attempts per game and got to the line 11 times against Houston. With Arizona’s paint-attack style, Peat should see plenty of volume against Michigan’s front court.

Arizona vs Michigan Prop Pick: Elliot Cadeau Over 7.5 Assists

Michigan’s sophomore point guard has dished 7+ assists in four of his last five games, including back-to-back 10-assist performances. Cadeau averages 5.8 on the season, but he’s been on a different level in the tournament. Arizona allows 13.57 assists per game (138th), so there’s room for him to operate.

Arizona vs Michigan Odds

Odds as of April 4. Check out all the best college basketball betting apps for wagering on the Final Four.

The Arizona vs Michigan odds are razor-thin. Michigan is -1.5 (-109) with Arizona at +1.5 (-111). The moneyline sits at -123 for the Wolverines and +103 for the Wildcats. At plus-money, I’d rather just take Arizona on the moneyline than lay the 1.5.

The total is set at 157.5 (-110 both sides). The public is overwhelming on the over given both offenses average 84+ points per game. But Arizona’s rim-attack style and elite tournament defense point to a slower pace than the market expects.

At +103, a $100 bet on Arizona’s moneyline returns $203. A $100 wager on Michigan at -123 pays $181.30. This is the first matchup since the 64-team bracket era began in 1985 in which both Final Four opponents won their prior four games by at least 10 points. The March Madness championship odds have Arizona and Michigan neck-and-neck at the top of the board.

Arizona vs Michigan Public Betting Splits

Here’s how the public is attacking the Arizona vs Michigan odds ahead of tip-off, per college basketball public betting data.

The moneyline is nearly a 50/50 split. Arizona is drawing 54% of tickets, but Michigan commands 52% of the handle. That gap means the average wager size on the Wolverines is larger, even though more bettors are siding with the Wildcats.

The spread tells a similar story. Arizona -1.5 is getting 58% of bets and 53% of the money. Nothing extreme in either direction, which makes sense for a game lined at 1.5.

The total is where the real consensus lives. A massive 74% of bets and 72% of the handle are on the over 157.5. The public clearly expects a shootout between two offenses averaging 84+ points per game. I’m fading that number, but I understand why the masses are on the other side.