Arkansas vs Houston Predictions, Best Bets & Betting Lines

• No. 8 Houston is a 4.5-point favorite over No. 14 Arkansas today in the Never Forget Tribute Classic
• The Cougars lead the country in scoring defense
• See my Arkansas vs Houston predictions and best bets, along with the latest betting lines

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Houston Cougars defense is elite. No. 8 Houston (10-1) brings its suffocating defense into action today versus No. 14 Arkansas (9-2) in the Never Forget Tribute Classic.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the reigning National Champions, pegging the Cougars as 4.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Personally, I don’t think that line is giving Houston nearly enough credit, and I’m looking to back them against the spread. I also lean under the 147.5 point total, as the Cougars rarely allow teams to reach 70 points.

The action is set to get underway at 5:30 pm ET, at the Prudential Center, in Newark, NJ, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Arkansas vs Houston predictions and best bets, along with the latest betting lines.

Arkansas vs Houston Picks and Best Bets

ATS Pick: Houston -4.5 (-105 at theScore Bet)

The Cougars enter play among the top contenders in the NCAA Tournament champion odds, and it’s all thanks to their defense. Their offense has actually underwhelmed so far, which is another reason to back the under, but defensively this team is as good as it gets.

Houston ranks number one in scoring defense, yielding just 57.7 points per game. They’ve yielded 70+ points in just three of 13 games, holding seven opponents below 60 points, and four programs under 50 points.

The Cougars pressure opposing guards relentlessly, and force teams into long, contested jumpers. Houston is elite at defending the interior as well, to the point that most teams don’t even test them inside. Houston is holding opponents to a 37.2% shooting percentage from the floor, and a 26.8% mark from beyond the arc. They force turnovers at the nation’s 10th highest rate, which spells trouble for the young, inexperienced Razorbacks backcourt.

Freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas handle guard duties, and I guarantee you they’ll be under more pressure today than in any other game of their basketball lives. The duo love to play fast and push the pace, but that won’t work against the speedy, athletic Cougar defenders.

Key Statistical Metrics: Arkansas vs Houston

Arkansas ranks top-50 in a bunch of offensive metrics, including 14th in scoring, but there are some red flags. They don’t make a lot of threes, they’re inefficient shooting 2’s (55%), and they don’t crash the glass (112th in offensive rebounding).

The rebounding woes show up in their own end as well, as they’ve allowed their two toughest opponents, Duke and Michigan State, to grab 38% of their own misses. Houston is a top-25 rebounding team, and will make them pay on the boards.

The Razorbacks biggest issue however, is their defense. They rank 142nd in points allowed per game, and are outside the top-220 in opponent assists and opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.

Houston’s offense isn’t firing on all cylinders at the moment, but they’ll get enough easy looks and second chances to build margin. At the other end of the floor, their defense will stand tall, and make life miserable for the young Arkansas ball handlers.

Game-Total Pick: Under 147.5 (-115 at BetRivers)

The Cougars defense is the number one reason to lean under tonight, but we also have to acknowledge the offensive struggles of some of their top players. Milos Uzan in particular has been bad this season, shooting 35% from the field and 25% from three. Uzan was the starting point guard on last year’s title team, where he shot 45% from the floor and 42% from deep.

The other issue plaguing them is the loss of LJ Cryer. Freshman Kingston Flemings is being asked to replace Cryer’s scoring, the problem is he’s incredibly inconsistent. Flemings is just as likely to score 5 points as he is to go off for 20. Outside of Flemings and leading scorer Emmanuel Sharp, Uzan is the only other player scoring in double-figures, and we already discussed his struggles.

Arkansas vs Houston Betting Lines

The best place to bet Houston -4.5 currently is the Score, who are offering a spread that’s a full point lower than the rest of the market. Total-wise, BetRivers is offering a 147.5-point over/under, so make sure to wager there if you like the under. Most other commercial books are holding firm at a 146.5-point total, which is still 3 points higher than the opening line.

Odds and commentary as of 11:30 am ET on Dec. 20. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the college basketball odds move before gametime.

Per college basketball public betting data, Houston has covered in three straight games overall, and have posted eight double-digit wins in 11 games so far.