Arkansas vs Miss State Picks & Predictions on Feb 7

• No. 21 Arkansas is a 6.5-point road favorites at Mississippi State
• Sharp money has flowed toward the Over 161.5
• We analyze Arkansas at Miss State and offer expert betting advice

In a loaded SEC, teams must take advantage of breaks in the schedule.

That’s the opportunity No. 21 Arkansas has today when it travels to Mississippi State. Tip-off is set for 12 pm, ET (ESPN2).

Arkansas (16-6, 6-3 SEC) is looking to rebound after an 85-77 home loss to Kentucky. Mississippi State (11-11, 3-6 SEC) is fighting to salvage its season. The Bulldogs have dropped six of their last seven games and are 0-6 against RPI Top 50 opponents this year.

No surprise, oddsmakers have made the Razorbacks road favorites.

We analyze Arkansas at Mississippi State and offer expert betting advice.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Best Bets, Predictions & Odds

Arkansas brings one of the nation’s most efficient scoring attacks into a hostile environment against a Bulldogs team that relies heavily on volume shooting to stay competitive.

The Spread: Arkansas -6.5 (-104) at DraftKings

The moneyline price on Arkansas (-310) offers little value, but laying the points with the Razorbacks at -6.5 is the sharp play given the offensive mismatch. Arkansas maximizes possessions with elite efficiency, led by guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is posting 20.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting and 40.8% from deep. His True Shooting percentage of 60.3% indicates an offense that generates high-quality looks consistently.

In contrast, Mississippi State operates a high-variance offense dependent on the three-ball. Leading scorer Josh Hubbard averages 20.8 points but shoots just 39.9% from the field, requiring significant volume to reach his totals. The Razorbacks counter this with a formidable interior defense anchored by Trevon Brazile (1.29 blocks) and Malique Ewin (2.09 blocks). By controlling the paint and forcing the Bulldogs into contested perimeter jumpers, Arkansas is well-positioned to cover the number. Trends support this angle: Mississippi State has allowed 80+ points in five of their last seven games, a defensive frailty the Razorbacks are equipped to exploit.

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The Total: Over 161.5 (-110) at Bet365

Despite a high opening number, the metrics strongly suggest this game will eclipse 161.5 points. Both teams possess dynamic backcourts that prefer to push the tempo. Mississippi State’s duo of Hubbard and Jayden Epps (15.3 PPG) have combined for over 320 three-point attempts this season. Their willingness to launch from deep ensures a high variance of quick possessions, stopping the clock and increasing the total snap count.

On the other side, Arkansas generates offense through rim pressure and free throws. Acuff Jr. has already attempted 101 free throws this season, and the Razorbacks’ ability to draw fouls extends the game while adding efficient points to the board. With both defenses allowing over 77 points per game (Arkansas 77.6, Mississippi State 78.2), neither unit has proven capable of consistently getting stops against high-caliber offenses. Expect a track meet in Starkville.

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Public Betting Data

The college basketball betting public has taken a definitive stance on the side, but the total market reveals an interesting divergence between ticket count and handle.

Moneyline Splits

Bettors are overwhelmingly backing the road team. Arkansas is commanding 94.74% of the total moneyline bets and 86.5% of the money. The alignment between ticket percentage and money percentage suggests a broad consensus that the Bulldogs are outmatched. Typically, heavy public action on a road favorite warrants caution, but the lack of contrarian money indicates the market sees Arkansas as the vastly superior team.

Total Splits

The total market shows signs of a “Pros vs. Joes” scenario. The Under is the popular pick among casual bettors, drawing 55.22% of the tickets. However, the Over has captured 52.49% of the money. This split—where the majority of tickets are on the Under but the majority of cash is on the Over—often indicates that larger, sharper wagers are anticipating a high-scoring affair, aligning with our statistical projection of a shootout.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Stats

Offensive Efficiency vs. Volume

The Razorbacks rank 4th in the SEC with 88.7 points per game. The Hogs’ efficiency is driven by shot selection; they attack the rim and convert at a high clip (Acuff Jr. 49.1% FG). Arkansas also excels at generating second-chance points, with Trevon Brazile (6.9 RPG) and Malique Ewin crashing the offensive glass.

Mississippi State, conversely, is a volume-dependent squad. The Bulldogs’ 77.8 PPG average comes with lower efficiency metrics. While Hubbard and Epps provide a threat from deep, the Bulldogs often struggle when the three-ball isn’t falling. Their inability to match Arkansas’ interior scoring (FG% differential) puts immense pressure on their perimeter shooting to remain perfect.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Odds

• Moneyline: Arkansas -310 | Mississippi State +245
• Spread: Arkansas -6.5 (-104) | Mississippi State +6.5 (-117)
• Total: Over 161.5 (-114) | Under 161.5 (-106)

Odds as of February 6, 2026, from DraftKings and ESPN Bet.

The oddsmakers have installed Arkansas as clear road favorites, with the -6.5 line implying a win by at least three possessions. The total of 161.5 is one of the higher numbers on the board, reflecting the pace and scoring capabilities of both backcourts.

Removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) reveals the true implied probabilities for the contest: Arkansas holds a 72.3% probability of winning outright, while Mississippi State has a 27.7% chance of pulling the upset.

For bettors playing the moneyline, the value proposition varies significantly. A $10 wager on Arkansas would return a total of $13.23 (a $3.23 profit), suitable for parlay pieces or conservative bankroll builders. Conversely, a $10 wager on the underdog Bulldogs would return $34.50, offering a higher reward for those banking on home-court magic.