Best Bets & Expert Picks for Louisville vs Michigan State

• Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite over Louisville in the East Region’s 3 vs 6 matchup in the 2nd Round
• The high offensive efficiency for both teams has me targeting Over 150.5 points
• My Best Bets and Expert Picks for the Louisville vs Michigan State matchup can be found below, along with the odds

March Madness rolls on today with 2nd Round action. In the East Region, No. 6 Louisville will take on No. 3 Michigan State, in a contest that I’m showing plenty of value on the underdog Cardinals. Louisville is currently catching 4.5 points in the college basketball odds, and I’ll make the case you should bet not only that number but the Cardinals moneyline as well.

Tip-off for this Round of 32 matchup is set for approximately 2:45 pm ET, from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY, with national broadcast coverage available on CBS.

Below you’ll find my best bets and expert picks for the Louisville vs Michigan State showdown, along the full list of odds.

Louisville vs Michigan State Best Bets

• Louisville Moneyline (+165 at BetMGM)
• Over 150.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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Michigan State enters the contest sporting a stellar 26-7 overall record, looking to build on their dominant 92-67 first-round win over North Dakota State. Tom Izzo’s squad however, will be in tough against a battle-tested ACC opponent. Louisville brings a solid 24-10 overall record to Buffalo, riding the momentum of an 83-79 victory over popular March Madness sleeper South Florida, and carrying plenty of juice as a dangerous underdog.

Elite players like Michigan State’s Carson Cooper and Louisville’s Isaac McKneely will dictate the pace today, making this a fascinating stylistic clash between frontcourt dominance and perimeter firepower. While Michigan State boasts an incredibly efficient frontcourt, guard play historically dictates the game flow in March.

That’s why I am backing Louisville to win this game outright as a highly capable underdog. The Cardinals backcourt duo provides the exact type of explosive scoring needed to pull off the upset. McKneely has been an absolute flamethrower, sinking 7 of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc for 23 points in his last outing.

Louisville brings the nation’s 19th highest scoring offense into play, backed by the country’s 13th highest effective field goal percentage. Those numbers dwarf the Spartans stats in those categories, while there’s not a ton separating the defensive play of these two programs. Give me the higher ceiling offense on the moneyline at juicy +165 odds.

As for the Over, Louisville’s offensive efficiency is a prime reason why 150.5 points is simply not enough. Not to be outdone, Michigan State can produce big scoring numbers as well, led by Cooper and Cam Ward. The ladder was flawless from the field in the 1st Round, en route to 13 points.

On the flip side, Louisville also has a knack for generating extra possessions inside, averaging over 10 offensive boards per game. With both programs capable of finding plenty of success, anticipating a high-scoring shootout is the bet to make.

Louisville vs Michigan State Expert Picks

• Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140 at BetMGM)
• Jeremy Fears Jr Over 8.5 Assists (-115 at Caesars)

Finding value on player props means identifying volume and efficiency, and McKneely offers both. Sinking 70% of his attempts from downtown recently shows he has the potential to match the output of the March Madness Most-Outstanding Player odds contenders. Michigan State’s defense will have their hands full trying to contain him on the perimeter, making the over on his made threes a premier target

If I am looking to back a player in green, point guard Jeremy Fears Jr is a fantastic look as a distributor. Fears Jr is currently dishing out an eye-popping 9.2 assists per game on the season and dropped 11 dimes in his last outing. With hyper-efficient finishers cutting to the basket, he has reliable targets to help him rack up assist numbers early and often.

Louisville vs Michigan State Odds

Odds as of March 20. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive BetMGM promo code to bet on March Madness.

As of Friday afternoon, BetMGM’s +165 odds are the longest any online sportsbook is offering on the Cardinals to pull off the upset. If you’re looking to tail my total bet, make sure you visit FanDuel. Their 150.5 point over/under is a full point less than the rest of the market, making them the preferred choice.