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Best Bets & Picks for #5 Kentucky vs #1 Texas (NCAAW Tournament)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in College Basketball

Published:


Mar 8, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Madison Booker (35) handles the ball defended by South Carolina Gamecocks center Madina Okot (11) during the second half at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
  • #1 seeded Texas is a massive favorite in March Madness women’s Sweet 16 action versus #5 Kentucky
  • The Longhorns have waltzed through the first two games and the Wildcats survived their second round game
  • Keep reading for my Kentucky vs Texas picks, plus the latest odds for the Women’s March Madness contest

Saturday afternoon the #5 seeded Kentucky Wildcats attempt to upset the #1 seeded Texas Longhorns in women’s March Madness sweet 16 action. In doing so, UK would reach their first Elite 8 since way back in 2012-13. Their combatants reached the Final Four just last year, before bowing out to the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Keep reading for the complete Kentucky vs Texas odds, plus my favorite picks and how to watch the March Madness on Saturday, March 28th.

Kentucky vs Texas Picks and Predictions

  • Texas -14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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I’m very bullish on the Longhorns proving why they are a number one seed, and the third shortest odds to win the tournament at +850 on FanDuel. Through the first two contests, Texas has dismantled their two opponents by 42 points each time. In the first round, they dispatched Missouri State 87-45, then Oregon 100-58.

Leading the attack was junior forward Madison Booker, who had 14 points and twelve rebounds in the first outing, but then exploded for a scintillating 40 points, eight boards and five assists versus the Ducks.

This season, Texas is an outstanding 15-3 versus top-25 squads, compared to their adversaries, who are a wholly average 7-7. This also amounts to a de facto home game for the Longhorns, as it’s being played in state. The team has been putting up biggest offensive numbers this season, and able to limit chances, unlike the Wildcats, who have been very suspect on D.

Kentucky won by 15 points in the first round against James Madison, but squeaked by in round two with a 74-73 margin vs West Virginia. In that affair, the Wildcats nearly coughed up a twelve point edge after the third quarter, but were able to hold down the fort to make their first Sweet 16 in a decade.

Teonni Key and Clara Strack were the heavy lifters against the Mountaineers. The former had 19 points and ten rebounds, while the latter put up 18 points and 15 boards.

These two schools have met twice in the last two seasons, both victories by Texas. Last year it was an 18 point triumph, and last month, the Longhorns came out on top 64-53. In that contest, Key and Strack were held to a combined 22 points and ten rebounds. All-time, Texas is 4-0 H2H with Kentucky.

Booker, who led Texas with 19.3 PPG, nearly six points more than her closest teammate Jordan Lee, had an off night in that duel, scoring just eight points, which was a season-low. I don’t expect that from her again, and with Texas’ firepower, they’ll cover the 14.5 point spread this time around.

Kentucky vs Texas Odds

Bet TypeWildcatsLonghorns
Moneyline+880 (FanDuel)-1350 (DraftKings)
Spread+14.5 (-110 at Caesars)-14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
TotalO 131.5 (-112 at bet365)U 131.5 (-110 at Caesars)

If you’re looking to back Kentucky as a considerable longshot as a straight-up upset winner, do yourself a favor and head to FanDuel. They have the Wildcats priced at +880, compared to other books that have them +800. I’ve culled several books and they all land on -14.5 spread and over/under 131.5 points.

Odds as of March 27, 11:30 am at DraftKings. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

Wildcats vs Longhorns H2H Team Stats

StatKentuckyTexas
Record25-1033-3
Strength of Schedule (SOS)0.5940.621
Net Rank16th4th
Offensive PPG75.5 (34th)85.4 (7th)
Defensive PPG60.5 (82nd)56.4 (14th)

Texas is considerably better than Kentucky in every statistical category, ranking inside the top-10 for PPG and top-15 in points allowed per outing. The Wildcats score at a reasonable clip, but are lacking defensive prowess, which could see their adversaries run up the score on Saturday.

How to Watch Kentucky vs Texas

It’s a Regional 3 showdown between #5 Wildcats and #1 Longhorns. Tip off for this Kentucky (25-10) vs Texas (33-3) Sweet 16 clash is set for 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT Saturday from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. It’ll be broadcast across the United States on ABC and TSN in Canada. You can also stream the game on the ESPN App, Fubo TV, Hulu or Direct TV.

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Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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