Best Bets, Predictions & Betting Splits for Georgia vs Kentucky (Feb 17)

• Kentucky is 13-2 at Rupp Arena this season
• Shot-blockers Somto Cyril and Malachi Moreno signal strong value on the game total going under
• We evaluate Georgia at Kentucky and offer expert betting advice

Kentucky welcomes Georgia to Rupp Arena tonight for a pivotal SEC showdown. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Kentucky (17-8, 8-4 SEC) is aiming to bounce back from a tough 92-83 road loss to No. 14 Florida. Georgia (17-8, 5-7 SEC) is desperate to halt a skid that has seen the Bulldogs lose five of their last six conference games.

Neither team is ranked, but Kentucky’s No. 27 RPI is far superior to Georgia’s (No. 63).

From a betting perspective, the Wildcats enter as the clear home favorite.

We break down Georgia at Kentucky and offer our best bets.

Georgia vs Kentucky Best Bets

Georgia welcomes back leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson from a shoulder injury, but Kentucky’s home dominance combined with Georgia’s struggles against top-tier competition points toward value on the home side.

The Spread: Kentucky Wildcats -7.0 (-110 at Bet365)

The most compelling angle in this matchup is Kentucky’s overwhelming success at Rupp Arena compared to Georgia’s recent form. The Wildcats are 13-2 at home (7-7 ATS as a home favorite). While Georgia has been respectable on the road this season, it enters this contest having lost five of its last six SEC games.

Kentucky’s offense, led by Otega Oweh (17.0 PPG), operates at high efficiency at home. Oweh, who recently surpassed 1,000 career points, is shooting 47.4% from the field. His ability to slash to the rim will be crucial against a Georgia defense that has surrendered 86 and 94 points in its past two outings. The Bulldogs’ strength of schedule (0.5361) suggests their 17 wins came against softer competition, whereas Kentucky has navigated a tougher slate (SOS 0.5914) with greater success against Top 50 teams. Lay the points with the battle-tested hosts.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

The Total: Under 161.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Modern college basketball leans toward the Over, but the defensive metrics in the paint suggest a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers anticipate. This matchup features two of the premier rim protectors, which should deter easy buckets and force contested jumpers.

• The Block Party Factor: Georgia center Somto Cyril averages 2.52 blocks per game.
• Kentucky’s Response: Kentucky freshman Malachi Moreno averages 1.64 per game and is coming off an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double against Florida’s formidable frontcourt.

With nearly 4.2 blocks per game combined between just these two pivots, drives to the basket will be perilous. If the game slows down into a half-court grind, hitting 162 points will be a tall task.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting market paints a clear picture of how the public and larger-volume bettors view this SEC clash. The data suggests strong confidence in the home favorite, aligning with the earlier analysis predicting a Kentucky cover.

Spread: Strong Conviction on the Wildcats

The most significant takeaway from the betting splits is the heavy volume of money flowing toward Kentucky. While the ticket count is moderately in favor of the Wildcats, the actual handle tells a more dominant story.

• Kentucky (-7.5): 58.56% of tickets, 70.39% of money
• Georgia (+7.5): 41.44% of tickets, 29.61% of money

Typically, when the money percentage significantly outpaces the ticket percentage—as seen here with Kentucky holding nearly 12% more of the handle than the bet count—it indicates that larger wagers are backing that side. This surge of capital supports the prediction that Kentucky’s home-court advantage will be too much for Georgia to overcome.

Moneyline: Lopsided Support

Unsurprisingly for a home favorite in a major conference, the moneyline action is overwhelmingly one-sided. There is virtually no appetite in the market for a Georgia upset.

• Kentucky ML: 95.84% of tickets, 96.25% of money
• Georgia ML: 4.16% of tickets, 3.75% of money

The Total: A Split Decision

While the spread sees decisive action, the market is much more conflicted regarding the total of 161.5.

• Over 161.5: 46.9% of tickets, 50.15% of money
• Under 161.5: 53.1% of tickets, 49.85% of money

This creates an interesting dynamic where the “public” (represented by the higher ticket percentage) is slightly favoring the Under, aligning with the defensive analysis of the rim protection provided by Cyril and Moreno. However, the money is split almost dead even, with a fraction of a percentage point leaning toward the Over.

Georgia vs Kentucky Team Stats

Georgia: The offense runs through Jeremiah Wilkinson, who is averaging 17.1 points per game on 41.9% shooting. Wilkinson is expected to return after missing two games with a shoulder injury — a period where Georgia went 0-2. He is supported by Blue Cain (13.6 PPG), who provides spacing but will need to be efficient against UK’s perimeter defense.

Kentucky: The Wildcats are led by Otega Oweh, who matches Wilkinson’s output with 17.0 points per game but does so with higher efficiency (47.4% FG). Oweh is also a defensive menace, averaging 1.76 steals per game, which could spell trouble for a Georgia team that relies on high-volume possessions.

Kentucky’s superior performance against Top 50 teams and tighter defense (allowing 6.2 fewer points per game than Georgia) suggests it is the more battle-tested side. While Georgia’s 90+ point offense looks impressive on paper, its softer schedule suggests those numbers may deflate against a legitimate SEC defense at Rupp Arena.

Georgia vs. Kentucky Odds

The betting markets have adjusted slightly since opening, with the spread tightening and the total dropping, reflecting the defensive respect noted earlier in our analysis. Below are the current consensus odds for tonight’s SEC matchup at Rupp Arena.

• Moneyline: Kentucky -311 | Georgia +248
• Spread: Kentucky -7.5 (-105) | Georgia +7.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-109)

Odds as of February 17, 2026, at 1:23 PM EST from consensus.

The Wildcats opened as 8.5-point favorites, but early action on the Bulldogs has pushed the line down to -7.5. Similarly, the total has seen significant movement, opening at 164.5 before dropping three full points to 161.5, aligning with the sharp money expecting a more defensive battle in the paint. Kentucky remains a substantial favorite on the moneyline, though the price has shortened from an opener of -429.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied win probabilities (vig-free) for each team are as follows:

• Kentucky Wildcats: 72.47%
• Georgia Bulldogs: 27.53%

The oddsmakers are giving Kentucky nearly a three-in-four chance of defending their home court, while Georgia is viewed as a significant underdog with just over a 27% chance to pull off the upset in Lexington.

Payout Calculation

For bettors looking to place a wager on the outright winner, here is what a $20 bet would return on either side:

• Betting on Kentucky (-311): A $20 wager on the Wildcats would yield a profit of $6.43, resulting in a total payout of $26.43.
• Betting on Georgia (+248): A $20 wager on the Bulldogs would yield a profit of $49.60, resulting in a total payout of $69.60.