The Best Sweet 16 Upset Picks – Which Underdogs Should Bettors Target EARLY?

• With a pretty chalky tournament thus far, who will upset the apple cart in the Sweet 16?
• #11 Texas is the lone double-digit seed alive
• Continue reading for my three best Sweet 16 underdog picks

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After an exciting first weekend of the tournament, 16 teams are left standing in the 2026 installment of March Madness. Seven of the top eight teams in the tournament are still alive, with only #1 Florida falling in the first weekend.

The Sweet 16 will take place between Thursday, March 26, and Friday, March 27. Thursday’s games will be hosted at the SAP Center in San Jose and the Toyota Center in Houston. Friday’s games will be hosted at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, and the United Center in Chicago.

Keep reading for the Sweet 16 odds as well as three underdogs to keep an eye on Thursday and Friday.

Sweet 16 Underdogs

All lines are updated as of 10:30 pm ET on Monday, March 23.

The biggest favorite in the Sweet 16 is Michigan, who is a whopping 10.5-point favorite over Alabama. Alabama bettors can take the Crimson Tide at +430 to win straight-up if they believe in the country’s No. 1 offense.

Other schools in the 2-to-1 underdog range are Texas (versus Purdue), Arkansas (versus Arizona), and St. John’s (versus Duke). Arizona and Duke are among the tournament’s heaviest favorites, giving them excellent odds to advance. Texas, meanwhile, is the lone remaining double-digit seed.

The closest affairs are Iowa (versus Nebraska) and Michigan State (versus UConn). Bettors can get the Hawkeyes or Spartans for as short as 1.5 or 2.5 points ATS or +110 to +120 on the moneyline. Nebraska is the lowest-seeded of the “favorites” while Michigan State is likely the best team among the “underdogs”

Best Upset Picks

• #11 Texas over #2 Purdue (+270, Caesars)

While Purdue escaped double-digit upsets in 2024 and 2025, the Boilermakers are prone to a collapse as a high seed. In the last 10 tournaments, Purdue has lost to a double-digit seed four times. Additionally, they have lost as the higher seed in the Sweet 16 twice: 2018 to Texas Tech and 2022 to Saint Peter’s (a 15 seed).

On the Texas side, head coach Sean Miller has a slew of solid tournament runs to his name. Miller’s Xavier and Arizona teams went 4-4 in the Sweet 16. In 2011, Miller’s Wildcats sprung the Sweet 16 upset over #1 Duke to advance to the Elite Eight.

Matas Vokietaitis has played at a high level through March Madness. The Lithuanian 7-footer has averaged north of 18 points per game with 11 rebounds, fueling Texas’ 3-0 spurt. Senior guard Jordan Pope poured in 17 points in Texas’ upset over #3 Gonzaga, as well.

• #3 Illinois over #2 Houston (+140, Caesars)

Houston has been a perennial powerhouse in recent years, but the Cougars have been prone to an early exit. In both 2023 and 2024, Houston lost as a 1 seed in the Sweet 16, falling to #5 Miami (FL) and #4 Duke, respectively. While Houston did pull off a run to the National Championship last year, an upset would be far from shocking.

Illinois can score – and score in bunches. By points per game, the Fighting Illini are No. 17 in scoring, but by offensive rating, Illinois has the best offense in the country. Houston has its usual stifling defense (No. 2 in points allowed per game), but they did struggle against the best offense they played, getting swept by Arizona.

Illinois has scored 90.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. David Mirkovic poured in 29 points and 17 rebounds against Penn while Andrej Stojakovic scored 21 against VCU.

• #6 Tennessee over #2 Iowa State (+165, BetMGM)

Since last making the Elite Eight in 2000, Iowa State has had quite a difficult ride in March Madness. The Cyclones have lost as the higher seed a whopping seven times, including Sweet 16 losses in 2014, 2022, and 2024. Iowa State has lost its last four Sweet 16 games.

Tennessee has made back-to-back Elite Eights, snapping a three-game Sweet 16 losing streak from 2014 through 2023. Neither of these were upsets (by seed), but at least Tennessee has a recent track record of advancing through this stage. The Elite Eight, on the other hand, has been a massive hurdle for the Vols and head coach Rick Barnes.

Iowa State could be without All-American Joshua Jefferson. Jefferson sustained an ankle injury in Iowa State’s first-round win over Tennessee State. While he was not needed in ISU’s win over Kentucky, he is the key piece to the Cyclones making their deepest tourney run in a generation.

On the Tennessee side, Ja’Kobi Gillespie has ascended in March. He has 50 points and 15 assists through two March Madness games. He is a blistering 9-for-16 on three-point shots, and he has led the Vols in scoring in both tournament games.

Upsets in Previous Sweet 16s

2025 featured an incredibly chalky tournament with zero Sweet 16 upsets (by seed). The only team not on the 1-line or 2-line in the Elite Eight was #3 Texas Tech, who beat #10 Arkansas in the Sweet 16. The missing top seed was #2 St. John’s, who lost in the Second Round.

In 2024, a whopping five lower seeds pulled upsets in the Sweet 16. This included #11 NC State and an eventual Elite Eight matchup between #4 Alabama and #6 Clemson.