Boise State vs Utah State Prediction, Player Props & How to Watch Mountain West Clash

• Utah State defends its first-place standing and seven-game win streak tonight against Boise State on Fox Sports 1
• The Aggies open as double-digit home favorites at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, backed by an 11-1 home record
• Read on for my Boise State vs Utah State expert picks and predictions on Feb 18

Mountain West positioning is on the line this Wednesday night as the conference-leading Utah State Aggies (22-3, 12-2 MW, 11-13 ATS) welcome the Boise State Broncos (15-10, 7-7 MW, 13-10 ATS) to Logan. Action tips off at 10:30 pm ET on Wednesday, February 18, with Fox Sports 1 providing the national broadcast coverage.

Sitting alone atop the stacked Mountain West – which has eight top-100 KenPom teams and ranks as the best mid-major conference by a wide margin this season – Utah State enters Wednesday night on a seven-game winning streak. Another W tonight would put them a full game clear of San Diego State while a Boise State win would drop the Aggies into a first-place tie.

Squarely on the bubble in the March Madness odds, Boise State would give its resume a huge shot in the arm with an upset. Can the Broncos pull it off? I’m not betting on it.

Boise State vs Utah State Picks & Best Bets

As the Mountain West season accelerates toward the tournament, the statistical disparity between these two programs has become evident. With Utah State sitting atop the conference and Boise State hovering at .500 in league play, oddsmakers have installed the Aggies as significant favorites (9.5 to 10.0 depending on the sportsbook).

ATS Prediction: Utah State Aggies -9.5 (-118 at DRAFTKINGS)

While a 9.5-point spread in conference play often signals caution, the advanced metrics suggest Utah State is well-positioned to cover at home. The Aggies enter this contest 25th at KenPom compared to Boise in 59th. The gulf is roughly the same in terms of RIP (17th vs 49th).

The differentiating factor between the Aggies and Broncos is shot selection; Collins Jr is shooting 51.3% from the field, while his backcourt running mate Mason Falslev is converting at an elite 53.5% clip. Utah State is 11-1 straight up at home and has won its last four home games by an average margin of 18.5 points, which includes wins over two top-100 opponents.

Conversely, Boise State’s offense has struggled with efficiency, particularly in the backcourt. Guard Dylan Andrews is averaging 12.3 points per game but is shooting just 36.3% from the floor and 31.9% from three-point range. Similarly, Aginaldo Neto is shooting just 39.6% on the season. Against a Utah State defense that features opportunistic playmakers like Falslev (2.12 steals per game) and Drake Allen (1.96 steals per game), Boise State’s inefficient ball-handling is likely to result in live-ball turnovers.

The Aggies’ ability to generate extra possessions – they rank 16th nationally in steal percentage, generating steals on 12.9% of opponent posessions – should allow them to extend the lead late and cover the number.

Game-Total Prediction: Under 153.5 (-110 at BETMGM)

I am also backing under 153.5 (-110) in this matchup, driven by the likelihood of Boise State’s offense stalling in a hostile road environment. While Utah State boasts a high-powered offense (84.7 PPG), relying on the Broncos to contribute significantly to a total in the 150s is a -EV proposition given their recent shooting splits.

Boise State relies heavily on Drew Fielder in the paint (54.2% FG), but Utah State has the interior size to neutralize him. Aggies forward Karson Templin has recorded 25 blocks this season, and Utah State generally controls the glass well. The trend of inefficiency from Boise State’s perimeter players, combined with Utah State allowing just 69.1 points per game, points toward a final score landing in the 140s.

Boise State vs Utah State: Head-to-Head Stats

The statistical gap between these two Mountain West programs is stark, particularly regarding offensive efficiency and point differential. Utah State enters this matchup with a significant advantage in RPI and net scoring, boasting a resume that reflects their dominance at the top of the conference standings.

The most glaring mismatch lies in shot conversion rates. Utah State possesses one of the most efficient backcourts in the nation. MJ Collins Jr. scores at an elite clip (18.5 PPG, 51.3% FG), while Mason Falslev is even more clinical (16.3 PPG, 53.5% FG). This duo allows Utah State to maximize possessions without relying on sheer volume. In contrast, Boise State’s Dylan Andrews (36.3% FG) and Aginaldo Neto (39.6% FG) often settle for difficult jumpers, lowering their team’s effective field goal percentage.

Utah State’s defense is predicated on creating transition opportunities. The Aggies feature two premier perimeter defenders in Falslev (2.12 SPG) and Drake Allen (1.96 SPG). This defensive pressure is a major concern for Boise State ball-handlers, who have combined for nearly 100 turnovers this season. If Utah State forces live-ball turnovers, their ability to convert in transition will likely push this game over the double-digit spread.

Boise State vs Utah State Odds

Utah State is a substantial favorites across the board, laying anywhere from 9.5 to 10.5 points. The Aggies are laying 10 points at home, reflecting their 22-3 record and dominance at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. The total is set at 153 points with equal juice (-110), suggesting bookmakers expect a moderately high-scoring affair despite the defensive potential.

Based on the current moneyline odds, the vig-free implied probabilities are:

• Utah State Aggies: 80.88%
• Boise State Broncos: 19.12%

For bettors considering a wager on the outright winner, the potential returns vary drastically. A $20 bet on the Utah State moneyline (-549) would yield a profit of just $3.64. Conversely, a $20 upset bid on the Boise State moneyline (+450) would return a profit of $90.00 should they manage to stun the conference leaders in Logan.

Odds commentary as of 2:07 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the odds move before tip-off.

BSU vs USU Public-Betting Splits

Wednesday’s college basketball public betting splits show a decisive consensus, with the public heavily backing the home team to cover the spread.

Spread & Moneyline

There is virtually no hesitation among bettors regarding Utah State. On the spread, the Aggies are attracting a massive 82.15% of the betting tickets. More importantly, the handle supports that sentiment, with 85.3% of the total money wagered on Utah State to cover.

The confidence in the home team extends to the moneyline, where the splits are extreme. A staggering 97.59% of tickets and 99.54% of the cash are on Utah State to win outright. This massive alignment suggests the public is fully buying into Utah State’s dominant 22-3 record and home-court advantage. While fading the public is a common strategy, in this instance, the sharp money appears aligned with the consensus on the spread.

Game Total

While our analysis points toward a lower-scoring affair—selecting the Under 153—the betting public anticipates a shootout. The splits for the total show that 69.89% of the bets have come in on the Over, accounting for 71.01% of the money wagered. This creates a clear divergence between public sentiment and our projection. We are betting against the grain here, relying on Boise State’s offensive inefficiencies and Utah State’s defensive pace control.

How to Watch Boise State vs Utah State

As mentioned at the top, FOX Sports 1 will carry the national broadcast of this heavyweight Mountain West tilt.

Tip-off time is slated for 8:30 pm ET local time (MT) and 10:30 pm ET at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logah, UT.

Bookmark SBD’s college basketball odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for every NCAAM game this season.

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