• No. 4 Duke is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite this season
• No. 20 Clemson is 1-0 ATS as a road underdog this season
• Analytic models and betting trends reveal significant value on the road underdog and total for Clemson at Duke

No. 20 Clemson travels to face No. 4 Duke in a matchup with major ACC implications. Tip-off is set for 12 pm, ET (ESPN).

Duke (22-2, 11-1) leads the ACC race and is 11-0 at Cameron Indoor this season. Clemson (20-5, 10-2 ACC) arrives as a dangerous road underdog, aiming to rebound from a recent setback against Virginia Tech and close the gap in the race for the regular-season crown.

Oddsmakers have positioned the Blue Devils as significant favorites (12.5 points), but the Tigers boast a formidable road resume, having recently tied won their 14th consecutive ACC road victory, matching the ACC’s second-longest such streak. With Duke center Patrick Ngongba II questionable due to a wrist injury, the dynamics in the paint could shift, offering savvy bettors distinct angles to exploit.

We break down everything that matters and offer expert betting advice for Clemson at Duke today.

Clemson vs Duke Best Bets, Spread & Player Props

The Spread: Clemson +13.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

The consensus spread is 12.5 points, but DraftKings is offering +13.5 (-105). Laying 13.5 points against a Top-25 conference rival is a statistically precarious position, even for a team as dominant as Duke. The value here firmly resides with the road dog.

Clemson’s ability to cover this number hinges on their interior efficiency. Forward RJ Godfrey has been clinical in the paint, leading the Tigers with 11.6 points per game on 64.9% shooting. His high conversion rate on two-point attempts (112-of-167) allows Clemson to control tempo and prevent the empty possessions that typically fuel Duke’s transition runs. With secondary scoring options Carter Welling (10.4 PPG) and Jestin Porter (10.3 PPG) providing depth, the Tigers have the offensive floor to avoid being blown out.

Furthermore, Duke’s frontcourt depth is tested with the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Ngongba II. If the Blue Devils are thin in the middle, Clemson’s efficient interior attack becomes even more potent. Look for the Tigers to grind the pace, leverage their experience, and keep this game within single digits.

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The Total: Over 133.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The total of 133.5 appears to overcompensate for defensive intensity while undervaluing the sheer offensive talent on the floor.

Duke boasts the ACC’s most explosive scoring weapon in freshman phenom Cameron Boozer, who leads the league with 23.0 points per game while shooting 57.8% from the field. He is supported by Isaiah Evans (14.3 PPG), whose 58 three-pointers this season force defenses to stretch, opening lanes for Boozer.

On the other side, Clemson’s Godfrey converts field goals at nearly a 65% clip. In a game where Duke averages 82.9 PPG and Clemson sits at 75.6 PPG, a total in the low 130s is a statistical anomaly. Both teams possess the offensive rhythm to clear this bar comfortably.

Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting landscape for Saturday’s showdown reveals a sharp divergence regarding the spread, while the consensus on the total is overwhelming.

The Spread: Volume vs. Handle

The spread market shows a classic split between ticket count and money wagered, indicating a difference of opinion between casual bettors and larger syndicates.

• Duke (-12.5): 46.85% of Bets | 60.91% of Money
• Clemson (+12.5): 53.15% of Bets | 39.09% of Money

While the public ticket count slightly favors the Clemson Tigers (53.15%)—likely attracted by the ample points—the handle is heavily weighted toward the Duke Blue Devils (60.91%). This suggests larger wagers are backing the home favorite to cover. However, our analysis aligns with the ticket volume on this occasion, identifying value in fading the heavy handle on Duke given the large number.

The Total: Market Consensus

Unlike the spread, the total sees complete alignment between the public and the money.

• Over 133.5: 65.59% of Bets | 67.71% of Money
• Under 133.5: 34.41% of Bets | 32.29% of Money

With 67.71% of the money and 65.59% of the tickets backing the Over, the market agrees that the 133.5 line is set too low for two top-20 offenses.

Moneyline Distribution

Confidence in a straight-up upset is virtually non-existent in the betting market.

• Duke: 96.1% of Bets | 88.36% of Money
• Clemson: 3.9% of Bets | 11.64% of Money

Clemson vs Duke Stats Comparison

The table below details how these ranked foes stack up for the 2025-26 season.

The RPI metrics validate Duke’s favoritism. The Blue Devils have played a tougher schedule (.5858) and are 4-2 against Top 25 RPI teams. Clemson is 0-2 in that same tier. This game is a litmus test for the Tigers to prove they can contend with the nation’s elite away from home.

Clemson vs Duke Odds

The betting markets reflect Duke’s dominance at Cameron Indoor, positioning them as heavy favorites. Below are the consensus odds for Saturday’s matchup.

• Moneyline: Duke -1020 | Clemson +653
• Spread: Duke -12.5 (-110) | Clemson +12.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 13, 2026, from consensus sources.

The Duke Blue Devils are substantial -1020 moneyline favorites, a price that implies they are nearly invincible at home. The 12.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers expect a comfortable double-digit victory, while the 133.5 total is surprisingly conservative given Duke’s 82.9 PPG average.

Implied Winning Probabilities

Removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) reveals the true win probabilities assigned by the market.

• Duke Blue Devils: 87.3%
• Clemson Tigers: 12.7%

The market gives Clemson roughly a 1 in 8 chance of leaving Durham with a victory, highlighting the magnitude of the upset bid.

Betting Payouts

For those looking to play the moneyline, the risk/reward profiles are drastically different. A $20 wager would return the following:

• Betting on Duke (-1020): Returns a profit of just $1.96 (Total Payout: $21.96). This is strictly parlay-filler territory.
• Betting on Clemson (+653): Returns a profit of $130.60 (Total Payout: $150.60). High risk, but a massive return for a team with 20 wins.