College Basketball Best Bets & Picks to Target Today (Mar 5)

• Two Top 25 teams are in action tonight
• I have generated ATS or O/U picks six key games from our internal A.I. model
• See today’s top college picks against the spread and over/unders

As March Madness looms, the intensity is picking up. Tonight’s betting card features pivotal clashes in the Big Ten and the American Athletic Conference. No. 3 Michigan aims to maintain its dominance during a road test against Iowa, anchored by the imposing interior presence of Aday Mara. Meanwhile, No. 8 Michigan State looks to extend a four-game winning streak when they host Rutgers.

In the AAC, South Florida puts its seven-game heater on the line against Memphis. From these marquee battles to late-night action in the Big West featuring Hawai’i and UC Riverside, we are breaking down the spreads and moneyline value for today’s most compelling matchups.

Our internal A.I. scanned the landscape and provided the best bets for March 5.

College Basketball Best Bets for March 5

Top Plays & Expert Picks for Today’s College Basketball Card

Here are the best bets for today’s featured matchups.

Tulane at Temple

The Pick: Tulane +5.0 (-110 at Fanatics)

This game features two teams heading in opposite directions down the stretch. Temple enters this contest on a brutal six-game losing streak, struggling to find rhythm on both ends of the floor. While the Owls are at home, their defense has been porous, allowing 71.1 points per game on the season. Tulane hasn’t been perfect, but they have a dynamic playmaker in Rowan Brumbaugh (18.2 PPG, 3.6 APG) who can control the pace of this game. Temple’s Derrian Ford (18.1 PPG) will get his buckets, but the Green Wave have been the more competitive side recently. Getting two possessions of value with the better current form makes the underdog the smart play here.

Rutgers at No. 8 Michigan State

The Pick: Under 141.5 Total Points (-110 at Fanatics)

Michigan State is an overwhelming favorite for a reason—they are 14-2 at home and boast one of the Big Ten’s stingiest defenses, allowing just 66.3 points per game. Jeremy Fears Jr. has been a maestro at the point, averaging a massive 9.1 assists per game, controlling the tempo to suit the Spartans. On the other side, Rutgers has struggled mightily to score the ball efficiently, averaging just 70.2 points per contest. Rutgers lacks the supporting cast to turn this into a shootout against Tom Izzo’s defense. Expect a grind-it-out affair in East Lansing where the Spartans stifle the Knights, keeping this game below the total.

No. 3 Michigan at Iowa

The Pick: Iowa +9.0 (-110 at Fanatics)

Michigan is undeniably elite, sitting at 27-2 with a dominant interior presence in Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. However, giving nearly double-digit points to Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena is a risky proposition. The Hawkeyes are a different beast at home, boasting a 14-2 record in their own building. Iowa’s offense flows much better at home, and they have the firepower to trade baskets and keep this within the number, even if Michigan ultimately secures the win.

South Florida at Memphis

The Pick: South Florida -6.0 (-120 at Bet365)

Sometimes you just have to ride the wave. South Florida arrives in Memphis on a seven-game winning streak, which includes an earlier win over Memphis. The Bulls are lighting up the scoreboard with 88.3 points per game, led by the walking double-double machine Izaiyah Nelson, who is averaging 16.2 points and 10.0 rebounds. Conversely, Memphis is in freefall, having lost six straight games. Despite Dug McDaniel (13.4 PPG) doing his best to keep them afloat, the Tigers’ defense (giving up 75.2 PPG) hasn’t shown the ability to stop a high-octane offense like USF. Lay the points with the hotter team.

UC San Diego at Cal State Fullerton

The Pick: Over 156.5 Total Points (-110 at BetMGM)

If you like offense, this is the late-night game to watch. Cal State Fullerton plays at a frantic pace, scoring 83.7 points per game but giving up 82.7 on the other end. They essentially trade baskets for 40 minutes. The Titans orchestrate an attack that refuses to slow down. UC San Diego is riding a five-game win streak and will be happy to run with them. With the Titans’ inability to get stops and UCSD’s efficiency, this game has all the makings of a track meet that sails over the posted total.

UC Riverside at Hawai’i

The Pick: Hawai’i -11.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

The “Island Advantage” is one of the most statistically significant home-court edges in college basketball, and this year is no different. Hawai’i is 15-2 at home, suffocating opponents and winning by an average margin of over 10 points per game. Meanwhile, UC Riverside has been abysmal on the road, holding a 3-14 record away from home. While the Highlanders have some solid scorers, they simply don’t have the depth to hang with a Hawai’i squad anchored by Isaac Johnson. Expect the Rainbow Warriors to pull away in the second half and cover the double-digit spread.

“No-Vig” Probabilities and Payout Scenarios

The percentages above include the sportsbook’s fee, known as the “vig” or “juice.” To understand the true fairness of the matchup, we calculate the “no-vig” probability, which removes this fee to show the actual expected chance of winning. We also break down the profit potential for a small, standard $5 bet on the moneyline (winning the game outright) for beginners.

Tulane @ Temple

• No-Vig Probability: Temple 64.3% vs. Tulane 35.7%
• Payout: A $5 bet on Temple (-204) would profit $2.45, while a $5 upset bid on Tulane (+169) would return a $8.45 profit.

Rutgers @ No. 8 Michigan State

• No-Vig Probability: Michigan State 94.1% vs. Rutgers 5.9%
• Payout: Betting odds for this matchup are currently unavailable.

No. 3 Michigan @ Iowa

• No-Vig Probability: Michigan 78.2% vs. Iowa 21.8%
• Payout: Betting odds for this matchup are currently unavailable.

South Florida @ Memphis

• No-Vig Probability: South Florida 71.1% vs. Memphis 28.9%
• Payout: Betting odds for this matchup are currently unavailable.

UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton

• No-Vig Probability: UC San Diego 62.0% vs. Cal State Fullerton 38.0%
• Payout: Betting odds for this matchup are currently unavailable.

UC Riverside @ Hawai’i

• No-Vig Probability: Hawai’i 84.1% vs. UC Riverside 15.9%
• Payout: Betting odds for this matchup are currently unavailable.