College Basketball Picks Today: Expert ATS Predictions & Over/Under Predictions on Feb 11

• Second-ranked Michigan brings an undefeated road record into Evanston as a double-digit favorite
• Bettors are hammering the Over in the Iowa-Maryland clash with 85% ticket volume
• UConn looks to exploit Butler’s defensive struggles at Hinkle Fieldhouse

Wednesday’s college basketball slate presents a distinct theme of top-25 heavyweights navigating hostile road environments. The headliner features the #2 Michigan Wolverines taking their stellar 22-1 record to Evanston to face the Northwestern Wildcats, looking to tighten their stranglehold on the Big Ten standings. In the Big East, the #6 UConn Huskies enter Hinkle Fieldhouse as significant road favorites against the Butler Bulldogs. The #16 Texas Tech Red Raiders look to defend their dominant home court against the Colorado Buffaloes, aiming to solidify their standing among the Big 12 elite.

The table below sets out my NCAAM picks (ATS and O/U0 for every power-conference game on today’s schedule.

Expert College Basketball Picks & Predictions (Feb 11)

The betting market has reacted sharply to the midweek slate, with lopsided action forcing sportsbooks to adjust exposure on key matchups. The most-significant liability lies in the Big Ten clash at the XFINITY Center. The college basketball public betting splits are hammering the over in Iowa vs Maryland, with a staggering 85.21% of tickets and 84.68% of the handle on the over so far.

Similar one-way traffic is evident in Indianapolis. The public is showing zero hesitation backing UConn against Butler, with the Huskies drawing 97.51% of moneyline bets and 99.48% of handle. This consensus has pushed the spread into double-digit territory. Additionally, Ohio State is commanding 95.78% of moneyline tickets against USC, indicating the market sees little threat from the visitors at Value City Arena.

“Best Odds” as of 9:43 am ET. Download the best Texas sports betting apps today.

UConn Huskies at Butler Bulldogs Picks & Predictions

ATS Pick: UConn -11 (-110 at Caesars)
Total Pick: Under 144.5 (-105 at theScore)

The #5 UConn Huskies (22-2) arrive at Hinkle Fieldhouse with a significant efficiency advantage against a Butler squad reeling from a four-game losing streak, which includes an ugly double-digit home loss to a Georgetown team ranked 81st at KenPom. During this skid, Butler’s perimeter defense has collapsed, allowing opponents to shoot 42.4% from beyond the arc while the Bulldogs are shooting just 31.6% themselves. UConn’s offense is orchestrated by Silas Demary Jr, who leads the Big East at 6.1 assists per game, ensuring high-percentage looks for a roster boasting three players averaging over 13.5 points.

Butler relies heavily on individual production from rebounding leader Michael Ajayi (11.6 RPG) but the talent disparity is stark. UConn’s defensive structure is poised to neutralize Butler’s limited options, forcing them into low-efficiency looks late in the shot clock. With UConn likely to control the tempo and Butler struggling to find consistent offense, backing the road favorite to cover and the under is the sharpest play.

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats Picks & Predictions

ATS Pick: Michigan -15.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Total Pick: Under 153.5 (-110 at theScore)

The second-favorite in the March Madness odds, the #2 Michigan Wolverines enter Evanston with a perfect 7-0 record in true road games, facing a Northwestern team (10-14) in the midst of a slump. The mismatch in the paint is severe. Northwestern relies on Big Ten scoring leader Nick Martinelli (22.7 PPG) to carry the offense, but he faces Michigan’s elite rim protection anchored by Aday Mara. Mara leads the conference with 2.74 blocks per game and is fresh off a career-high 24-point performance against Ohio State, showcasing his two-way dominance.

Offensively, Michigan is hyper-efficient, led by Morez Johnson Jr, who tops the conference with a 67% field-goal percentage. Northwestern lacks the interior presence to disrupt Michigan’s rhythm or contain Mara. Expect the Wolverines to suffocate Northwestern’s one-dimensional offense. The combination of Michigan’s stifling defense and the likelihood of a blowout reducing late-game scoring intensity supports a play on the under, which is as high 153.5 currently.

Colorado Buffaloes at Texas Tech Red Raiders Picks & Predictions

ATS Pick: Texas Tech -13.5 (-122 at BetRivers)
Total Pick: Over 156.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-6) are a different beast in Lubbock, boasting an 11-1 home record. This spells trouble for a Colorado team (14-10) that has wilted on the road, posting a dismal 1-5 record away from home. Texas Tech’s statistical dominance is spearheaded by two players recently named to the Wooden Award Top 20 watchlist: JT Toppin, the Big 12’s leading rebounder (10.6 RPG), and Christian Anderson, who leads the conference in both assists (7.7 APG) and minutes played.

Colorado will attempt to keep pace through Isaiah Johnson (16.3 PPG), but the Red Raiders’ offense operates at a tempo and efficiency that the Buffaloes have failed to match in away games. Anderson’s distribution and ability to push the pace suggest Texas Tech will put up a significant number. With the Red Raiders looking to boost their RPI metrics and Colorado likely forced into a shootout to stay competitive, backing the heavy home favorite and the Over aligns with the data.

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