Computer Picks for March Madness Games Today – A.I. Best Bets on March 22)

• Our A.I. model has made its March Madness picks for Sunday, March 22
• See the top computer pick ATS for all 8 NCAA Tournament second-round game

Half of the Sweet 16 is set. The remaining half will be after today’s eight second-round games.

We’ve already seen notable upsets and several shining moments in the NCAA Tournament, maybe none bigger than Otega Oweh’s game-tying three-pointer that allowed Kentucky to eventually survive Santa Clara in overtime on Friday — the only reason Kentucky is still playing today.

Top-seeds Arizona (West) and Florida (South) also are in action today, a full day that features eight more second-round games.

I turned to our trusty proprietary A.I. model and asked it to generate its best spread bet for all 8 games. The table summarizes the picks, which I line-shopped across all available sportsbooks.

A.I. March Madness Picks & Computer Predictions

#7 Miami vs #2 Purdue Pick & Analysis

Pick: Purdue -7.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Miami relies heavily on forward Malik Reneau, who paced the team with 24 points in their first-round tournament win. However, Purdue’s offensive execution, anchored by point guard Braden Smith, generates too many high-percentage looks. Laying -7.5 at standard -110 odds carries a vig-free probability of exactly 50.00% for both sides (summing to 100%). Take Purdue ATS. The Over 147.5 is the play for the total; Miami’s defensive xFIP struggles against elite pick-and-roll teams, ensuring a high-scoring pace.

#7 Kentucky vs #2 Iowa State Pick & Analysis

Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Iowa State faces a massive hurdle without Joshua Jefferson, who averaged 16.9 points and 7.6 rebounds during the regular season before his recent ankle sprain. Despite this absence, the Cyclones’ stifling perimeter defense limits opponents’ shooting efficiency. Kentucky, heavily reliant on guard Otega Oweh’s shot creation, will struggle against Iowa State’s relentless ball pressure. Back Iowa State -4.5. For the total, the Under 146.5 holds exceptional value. Iowa State dictates a grinding tempo, often pushing games under the total against non-conference foes.

#5 St. John’s vs #4 Kansas Pick & Analysis

Pick: St. John’s -3.5 (-110, FanDuel)

St. John’s enters with massive statistical momentum, fueled by a relentless full-court press that breaks down opposing backcourts. Kansas, paced by Darryn Peterson who scored 28 points in their first-round win, has shown vulnerability against high-turnover defensive schemes. At -110 pricing across the board (giving both sides a 50.00% true implied probability to sum to 100%), the Red Storm present a mathematical edge. Take St. John’s -3.5. Lock in the Under 144.5; the Jayhawks’ half-court offense bogs down against aggressive man-to-man coverage, limiting total possessions.

#6 Tennessee vs #3 Virginia Pick & Analysis

Pick: Virginia +1.5 (-110, theScore)

Virginia went 29-5 in the regular season by neutralizing points in the paint and controlling the defensive glass. Tennessee’s offense, led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie who scored 29 points in the first round, thrives in transition but will be forced into late-shot-clock situations against a disciplined defense. While public betting splits heavily favor Tennessee, baseline statistical metrics indicate grabbing the points with Virginia is the sharper play. Back Virginia +1.5. The Over 137.5 is the total prediction; both teams possess top-20 offensive rebounding rates from the regular season, guaranteeing enough second-chance points to clear this modest number.

#9 Iowa vs #1 Florida Pick & Analysis

Pick: Florida -10.5 (-110, Caesars)

The defending national champion Gators dominated the regular season with a 27-7 record, utilizing elite rim protection and floor spacing. Iowa’s frontcourt will struggle to generate high-percentage FG% opportunities inside the arc. Lay the points with Florida -10.5. With the vig-free probability sitting at a balanced 50.00% on both sides, the Gators’ statistical superiority provides the necessary edge to back the heavy chalk. Attack the Over 145; Florida’s top-10 regular-season pace rating ensures a high volume of offensive possessions.

#9 Utah State vs #1 Arizona Pick & Analysis

Pick: Arizona -11.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Arizona’s explosive offense, featuring Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, averaged over 85 points per game during their 33-2 regular season. Utah State, led by MJ Collins who scored 20 points in the first round, simply lacks the frontcourt depth to contest Arizona’s interior passing and rebounding. The Wildcats are a dominant force. Back Arizona -11.5. The total sits high at 155.5, but the Over is the correct mathematical angle. Arizona pushes the tempo relentlessly off defensive rebounds, aligning with betting splits showing roughly 63.7% of tickets on the Over.

#7 UCLA vs #2 UConn Pick & Analysis

Pick: UConn -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)

UConn slipped to a No. 2 seed but remains an analytical darling with top-tier offensive and defensive efficiency metrics established throughout the regular season. UCLA faces injury concerns, dealing with fatigue and an unspecified dental injury to a key rotation piece that disrupts their depth. The Huskies excel at limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities. Back UConn -4.5. Play the Under 137.5; UCLA will look to bleed the shot clock to shorten the game against a statistically superior opponent, effectively suppressing the total scoring output.

#5 Texas Tech vs #4 Alabama Pick & Analysis

Pick: Alabama -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Alabama head coach Nate Oats relies on a modern, analytics-driven offense prioritizing layups and three-pointers. Texas Tech will struggle to keep pace if this turns into a track meet. At -1.5, the spread implies a near coin-flip, but removing the vig gives both sides a 50.00% true probability. The Over 164.5 is the strongest totals play of the slate. Alabama forces opponents to match their extreme tempo, a dynamic that historically shatters totals set in the 160s.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

• March Madness Expert Bracket Picks
• March Madness Injuries & Absences
• March Madness MOP Odds & Picks
• The Public’s Favorite NCAA Tournament Picks