Computer Picks for Sweet 16 Games Today – A.I. Best Bets on March 27

Published: March 27, 2026 at 8:02 am EDT

Top seed Duke leads the Sweet 16 slate Friday. — Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) blocks the shot of TCU Horned Frogs forward Xavier Edmonds (24) March 21, 2026 during the second half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.

Our A.I. model has made its March Madness picks for Friday, March 27
See the top computer pick for the remaining 4 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games today

Half of the Elite Eight is set.

The remaining half will be after tonight’s Sweet 16 games.

Top seeds Duke (East) and Michigan (Midwest) highlight tonight’s relatively chalky four-game slate.

I asked Sportradar’s proprietary A.I. model to generate its best spread bet for tonight’s Sweet 16 games. The table summarizes the picks, which I line-shopped across all available sportsbooks and prediction sites.

A.I. March Madness Picks & Computer Predictions

Matchup	ATS Pick	Odds
St. John’s vs. Duke	Duke -6.5	+100 at Kalshi
Alabama vs. Michigan	Michigan -9.5	-107 at DraftKings
Michigan State vs. UConn	Michigan State +2.0	-110 at Caesars
Tennessee vs. Iowa State	Iowa State -3.5	-110 at BetMGM

#5 St. John’s vs #1 Duke (East Region)

ATS Pick: Duke’s To Win By 6.5+ ($0.50 per contract / +100 odds at Kalshi)

Remember, Kalshi presents its markets differently, so to purchase this contract, you would actually select “YES” to Duke winning by 6.5+ points.

That contract is trading for $0.50 per, which equates to +100 odds — which is a better value than the sportsbooks are offering.

No question, getting nearly three possessions worth of points with a top-10 team is tremendous value, but Duke has been playing at another level since its first-round scare. The Blue Devils also feature the best player in America, Cameron Boozer. Rick Pitino’s defensive schemes will look to limit points in the paint and disrupt offensive rhythm, but Duke’s offense is explosive and versatile enough to cover this number.

Bettors who haven’t registered at Kalshi yet can click the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you’re already using Kalshi, try our SBD’s Novig promo code.)

Prediction Markets

Duke vs St. John's

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Duke

72%

St. John's

29%

Predict

#4 Alabama vs #1 Michigan (Midwest Region)

ATS Pick: Michigan -9.5 (-107 at DraftKings)

Michigan (31-3) possesses the elite half-court execution necessary to neutralize Alabama (23-9). Nate Oats’ squads are famous for their blazing pace and high-volume three-point shooting, which explains the sky-high 172.5 total. However, Dusty May has the defensive personnel to control the tempo and severely limit transition opportunities. The sharp money pounding the Under aligns perfectly with our data: Michigan will dictate the terms of engagement. By forcing Alabama to execute in the half-court, Michigan will methodically exploit defensive gaps, cover the 9.5-point spread, and keep the final score under the massive 172.5 threshold.

#3 Michigan State vs #2 UConn (East Region)

ATS Pick: Michigan State +2.0 (-110 at Caesars)

A classic March coaching clash takes center stage as Tom Izzo leads Michigan State (25-7) against Dan Hurley and UConn (29-5). While UConn holds the edge in seeding, the betting handle reveals that sharp money is backing the Spartans in this near pick ’em scenario. Izzo’s programs are notoriously battle-tested by the postseason, boasting the veteran poise and rebounding fundamentals required to upset high-caliber opponents in neutral venues. Take the +2.0 points. Both offenses execute efficiently enough to push past the modest 134.5 total, but Michigan State has the defensive rebounding edge necessary to control the glass and cover the number.

#6 Tennessee vs. #2 Iowa State (Midwest Region)

ATS Pick: Iowa State -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Iowa State (27-7) enters as a dangerous, top-tier contender matching up against Tennessee (22-11), a team that has shown flashes of brilliance but lacks the sheer consistency of their opponent. T.J. Otzelberger’s defensive unit excels at generating live-ball turnovers, translating directly into high-percentage transition looks. Respected bettors are confidently laying the points with Iowa State, heavily backing them with nearly 60% of the spread handle, and the metrics support that action. Both offenses will operate efficiently enough to eclipse the heavily backed 138.5 total, but the Cyclones are simply the more complete team and will cover the manageable 3.5-point margin.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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