Computer Picks for Sweet 16 Games Today – A.I. Best Bets on March 26

Published: March 26, 2026 at 8:07 am EDT

Purdue takes on Texas in the Sweet 16. — Mar 22, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates with Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) after the game against the Miami Hurricanes during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Our A.I. model has made its March Madness picks for Thursday, March 26
See the top computer pick ATS for all 4 Sweet 16 games

The Sweet 16 is set.

Tonight, eight teams will square off with the winners advancing to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.

Top seed Arizona (West), and No. 2 seeds Purdue (West) and Houston (Midwest) highlight the four-game slate.

The action starts with No. 11 seed Texas facing Purdue at 7:10 pm, ET (CBS) and concludes with Houston facing No. 3 seed Illinois in a 10:05 pm, ET, tip (TBS/truTV).

I asked Sportradar’s proprietary A.I. model to generate its best spread bet for all 4 Sweet 16 games tonight. The table summarizes the picks, which I line-shopped across all available sportsbooks and prediction sites.

A.I. March Madness Picks & Computer Predictions Sweet 16

Matchup	ATS Pick (Odds)	Sportsbook
Texas vs. Purdue	Purdue -7.5 ($0.49/+104)	Kalshi
Iowa vs. Nebraska	Nebraska -1.5 (-110)	FanDuel
Arkansas vs. Arizona	Arkansas +7.5 (-110)	BetMGM
Illinois vs. Houston	Houston -3.5 (-110)	Caesars

#11 Texas vs #2 Purdue Pick & Analysis

The Pick: Purdue To Win By 7.5 Points (YES, $0.49 per contract at Kalshi)

Prediction site Kalshi offers YES and NO options on its markets. Our analysis supports Purdue winning by 7.5 or more points. At Kalshi, that contract is trading for $0.49 per, which equates to +104 odds. To purchase this contract, select Purdue to win by 7.5 points and click YES.

Purdue (27-8) brings elite structural discipline to the SAP Center in San Jose, possessing the half-court execution necessary to cover the 7.5-point spread against a volatile Texas squad. The Boilermakers’ interior dominance limits second-chance points, establishing a reliable floor and making them a strong play to cover the number.

Regarding the total, backing the sharp money on the Under (148.5) aligns with a projected decrease in tempo. As the game tightens, Purdue will dictate a methodical pace, suppressing the overall possession count and keeping the final score below the total.

Bettors who haven’t registered at Kalshi yet can click the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you’re already using Kalshi, try our SBD’s Novig promo code.)

Prediction Markets

TEX vs PUR Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Purdue

76%

Texas

25%

Predict

#9 Iowa vs #4 Nebraska Pick & Analysis

The Pick: Nebraska -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Nebraska (28-6) steps into the Toyota Center as a short 1.5-point favorite. The Cornhuskers have consistently demonstrated excellent late-game execution against quality opponents, giving them a clear edge over an Iowa squad that struggles with defensive consistency in the paint.

#4 Arkansas vs #1 Arizona Pick & Analysis

The Picks: Arkansas +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Arizona (32-2) is an offensive juggernaut, but laying 7.5 points against an Arkansas (28-8) team riding a seven-game win streak is dangerous. The Razorbacks possess the elite athletic pedigree, arguably the country’s best player in Darius Acuff Jr. (23.3 PPG), rim protection, and transition defense required to disrupt Arizona’s typical offensive flow. Acuff scored 36 in Arkansas’ second-round victory.

By forcing contested perimeter shots and limiting fast-break opportunities, Arkansas will turn this into a physical half-court battle. This stylistic clash strongly favors the Razorbacks keeping the margin within two possessions, fully justifying the sharp handle backing them as a live underdog.

#3 Illinois vs #2 Houston Pick & Analysis

The Picks: Houston -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Houston (28-6) won its first two NCAA Tournament games by 31 points each. Now, the Cougars essentially get to enjoy home-court advantage at the Toyota Center in Houston. The Cougars’ suffocating, physical brand of basketball—anchored by elite rebounding and high-pressure defense—makes laying the 3.5 points a strong value play against Illinois (26-8). Offensively, Houston routinely capitalizes on second-chance opportunities to extend leads. Our analysis projects the Cougars to clear the short spread and comfortably return to the Elite Eight.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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