Duke vs Louisville Picks, Predictions & Betting Lines

• Louisville is unbeaten at home, but our analysis breaks down why we’re backing Duke to win outright on the road
• Louisville and Duke are two of the highest-scoring teams in the country, making the Over a popular play
• Duke is 4-1 vs Top-50 RPI teams

Duke freshman sensation Cameron Boozer, arguably the most complete player in the country, takes his show on the road tonight to face Louisville. Tip-off is 7 pm, Tuesday (ESPN) at the Yum! Center in Louisville.

Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC) is ranked No. 6 in the country with noted wins over Kansas, Arkansas, Florida and Michigan State — all ranked at tip. Louisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC) is ranked No. 20 with a noted win over then-No. 9 Kentucky and then-No. 22 Indiana.

Duke is Duke: Unflappable on the road, star-laden and eager to quiet every home crowd. Louisville is perfect at home and is desperate for a signature victory.

The betting angles are abundant. We analyze the matchup and offer our best bets.

Duke vs Louisville Prediction & Best Betting Picks

Oddsmakers essentially consider this ACC clash a coin flip, and for good reason. Louisville is talented, high-scoring and playing at home, while Duke counters with an unblemished record on the road.

While Louisville’s home-court advantage is significant, Duke possesses the most dominant player on the floor in Cameron Boozer (23 PPG, 9.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, all team-highs). The freshman forward is playing at an All-American level. Louisville will counter with the formidable interior presence of Sananda Fru (6.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks per game) and the scoring of Conwell (19.6 PPG).

Duke’s overall collection of high-end talent and earlier road tests gives it the edge in a hostile environment. The spread has shifted from Louisville -2.5 points to Duke now -1.5, indicating smart money recognizes Duke’s ability and the value in the moneyline. We’ll take the superior team at a fantastic price.

The Pick: Duke Moneyline (-110) at BetMGM

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Over/Under: Take the Over 161.5 (-110)

A total of 161.5 is high for a college game, but it’s justified by the immense offensive firepower on both rosters. Both teams average more than 87 points per game and are led by stars who can fill it up. Boozer (23.0 PPG) leads Duke in scoring; Ryan Conwell (19.6) leads Louisville.

The Blue Devils have four players averaging 9+ points, but they play through Boozer, who commands defensive attention and opens up looks for his teammates. Louisville is similarly potent, with Mikel Brown Jr. dropping 16.6 points per game to complement Conwell. Look for both teams to comfortably get into the 80s.

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Public Betting Trends & Market Analysis

The college basketball betting public has taken a clear stance in this ACC showdown, siding heavily with the ranked road favorite. There is little appetite for an upset at the KFC Yum! Center, as bettors are putting their faith and their money behind Duke.

Moneyline & Spread Analysis: All Duke

When it comes to picking a winner, the public is overwhelmingly backing Duke, with 87% of bets going Duke’s way. This indicates widespread confidence from both casual and serious bettors that Duke will emerge victorious.

The trend is nearly identical against the spread. Despite being the road team, 78% of spread bets are on Duke. Louisville is getting very little love from the public. While the handle percentage is slightly higher than the bet percentage for Louisville, it’s not a significant enough split to suggest a “sharps vs. public” disagreement. The consensus is clear: bettors expect Duke to win and cover.

Total Analysis: Expecting a Shootout

Bettors are anticipating a high-scoring affair, aligning perfectly with our prediction for the Over. A substantial unspecified percentage of all bets on the total have landed on the Over, and those wagers are supported by an even greater unspecified percentage of the money. This strong consensus between bet volume and actual cash wagered suggests a unified belief that the potent offenses of Duke and Louisville will push this game past the posted total.

Statistical Breakdown: Blue Devils vs Cardinals

Who has the edge in this Top-25 ACC showdown?

Analysis: Battle-Tested Blue Devils Hold a Decisive Edge

When comparing these teams, the most glaring difference lies in the quality of competition they have faced. Duke is 4-1 vs. Top-50 opponents; Louisville is 0-2 vs current Top-50 RPI teams but did beat Kentucky and Indiana when they were in the top 50 earlier this season. This experience in high-pressure situations gives Duke a significant advantage in what is sure to be a hostile road environment.

Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals Odds

• Moneyline: Duke (-105) | Louisville (-115)
• Spread: Duke -1.5 (-115) | Louisville +105 (-105)
• Total: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 6, 2026, from consensus.