Duke vs Notre Dame Picks, Predictions & How to Watch on Tuesday Night

• Sharp money has flooded the market on the road favorite, No. 1-ranked Duke
• Our analysis finds the best player prop bet for Duke freshman phenomenon Cameron Boozer
• We break down the key betting angles for Duke at Notre Dame

Newly crowned AP No. 1 Duke (25-2, 13-1 ACC) is a heavy road favorite tonight at Notre Dame (12-15, 3-11 ACC). Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN).

Duke has won four in a row since losing to rival North Carolina, including a statement win against Michigan on Saturday. Notre Dame is fighting to salvage a difficult season, currently sitting outside the projected ACC Tournament field and losers of six of their last seven contests.

This betting preview breaks down the efficiency metrics, analyzes the sharp money movement, and identifies the best value spots for this ACC showdown between Duke and Notre Dame.

Duke vs Notre Dame Best Bets & Expert Predictions

Road environments in the ACC are notoriously difficult, but the disparity in talent and current form is undeniable. Duke features a high-octane offense scoring at all three levels, while Notre Dame is grappling with significant injury issues to their primary ball handlers.

Here are the top plays for tonight’s matchup at Purcell Pavilion.

Spread Pick: Duke -17.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

The Blue Devils have an average winning margin of +19.3 points, a figure that dwarfs Notre Dame’s +1.0. Duke’s offense, averaging 82.4 points per game, is powered by elite ball movement (16.3 assists per game) and the interior dominance of Cameron Boozer. The projected absence of Notre Dame’s Jalen Haralson (questionable/likely out) and the confirmed loss of Markus Burton removes nearly 32 points per game of production from the Irish lineup. Without these primary creators, Notre Dame lacks the offensive firepower to trade baskets with the nation’s top-ranked team.

Defensively, Duke is allowing just 63.1 PPG, and its length on the perimeter should stifle Braeden Shrewsberry and Cole Certa, Notre Dame’s remaining scoring threats. Duke has won 12 of the last 13 meetings against Notre Dame, and with the Irish struggling to defend without fouling (ranking poorly in opponent free throw rate), Duke’s efficiency from the charity stripe should help them extend the lead late.

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Total Prediction: Over 146.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)

Despite the potential blowout game script, the metrics point toward the Over. Duke’s offensive efficiency is elite, shooting 48.2% from the field and 35.8% from deep. They should have little trouble scoring 80+ points against a Notre Dame defense allowing 73.4 PPG and lacking a true rim protector.

On the other side, Notre Dame is forced to play a variance-heavy style due to their roster depletion, relying heavily on three-point volume. Shrewsberry (40.6% 3P) and Certa will be green-lit to fire from deep to keep the Irish competitive. Additionally, garbage time production often pushes totals over in lopsided affairs, as Duke’s pace remains relatively high even with the second unit.

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Best Player Prop: Cameron Boozer Over 22.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)

This prop offers significant value based on the schematic mismatch in the paint. Boozer leads the ACC with 22.6 PPG and is shooting 58.2% from the floor. Notre Dame’s interior defense relies on Carson Towt and Brady Koehler, neither of whom possesses the requisite size or shot-blocking ability (Koehler averages just 0.73 blocks) to alter Boozer’s release.

• Trend: In conference road games where the opponent lacks a top-50 rim protector, Boozer’s usage rate in the paint increases by roughly 15%.
• Matchup: Boozer leads the ACC in field goals made (220). With Notre Dame’s defense likely over-extending to chase shooters like Isaiah Evans off the line, Boozer will have ample one-on-one opportunities on the block and the glass.

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Public Betting Splits & Trends

The college basketball public betting market for this game displays a classic “Pros vs. Joes” divergence, particularly on the spread, signaling that professional bettors see value where the public sees a trap.

Spread: The Sharp Money is on Duke

There is a massive discrepancy between ticket count and money handle on the spread.

• Tickets: 88.24% of bets are on Notre Dame +17.5.
• Money: 65.12% of the handle is on Duke -17.5.

This split indicates that while the general betting public is grabbing the double-digit points with the home underdog, the larger, sharper wagers are backing Duke to cover. When the money percentage flips the ticket percentage this drastically (a > 50% swing), it is a strong indicator of smart money positioning.

Total: Consensus on the Over

Unlike the spread, the total sees alignment between volume and handle.

• Over: 67.04% of tickets and 72.58% of money.
• Under 146.5: 32.96% of tickets and 27.42% of money.

The market clearly expects Duke’s efficient offense to dictate the tempo.

Duke vs Notre Dam Stats & Trends

The following table compares key performance metrics for both programs:

How to Watch Duke at Notre Dame (Feb 24)

No. 1-ranked Duke plays at Notre Dame at 7 pm tonight. ESPN will televise the game nationally.

Duke vs Notre Dame Odds

Sportsbooks have opened with Duke as a heavy road favorite, a line that respects their recent dominance and No. 1 ranking.

• Spread: Duke -13.5 (-110) | Notre Dame +13.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Duke -2100 | Notre Dame +1100

Odds as of Tuesday, February 24, from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Duke’s -2100 moneyline implies a 95.45% win probability, while Notre Dame’s +1100 implies just a 8.33% chance of pulling the upset. The moneyline market reflects the massive talent gap, with 96% of moneyline bets and 98.1% of the moneyline handle backing Duke outright.

For bettors:

• A $20 bet on Duke -13.5 at -110 odds would return $18.18 in profit for a total payout of $38.18.
• A $20 bet on Notre Dame +13.5 at -110 odds would return the same $18.18 profit.
• A $20 bet on Duke ML at -2100 odds would return just $0.95 in profit for a total payout of $20.95.
• A $20 bet on Notre Dame ML at +1100 odds would return $220.00 in profit for a total payout of $240.00.

Given the sharp money splits and the statistical chasm between these two teams, the value lies with the road favorite despite the large number.